Rysto and Hockeyeop, if none of you are getting lynched today, who would you vote for?
Yes. I have problems with sach and rysto. But I think a HNC lynch is more likely to take out scum. My lynch candidates, in order, are HNC, sach, rysto.
Brewha, but I think you knew that.
My current order is
Brewha
Rysto
Sach
Pleo
Zuma
Hazel
Hockey Monkey
I don’t think there is any reason to assume the scum wouldn’t do something unexpected on day one.
I’m heading outta town for the weekend, but should be back in time on Sun before the lynch and I may have internet access on Sat.
I’m leaning towards Rysto, HNC, and Faithfool as scum.
Things I’ve learned while rereading the thread part three:
I continue to find Hockey Monkey and Hazel not scummy.
Hockey Monkey thought that any player without a unique trait was fishy. There was no real reason to believe this, but she argued it anyway. We know at least one of those two individuals were scum. Brewha being scum would, in my mind, confirm Hockey as town. Even if only OAOW ends up being town, I still find it unlikely a scum would have pushed so hard for lynching of individuals with unique traits.
People have brought up the first Hazel vote, but again I don’t find it scummy. When she posted her “non vote” we were already at a majority. A OAOW vote from Hazel would of only accomplished risking a speed lynch.
I’ve completed my re-read, and I don’t have a heck of a lot. One of the problems with this game is that once you start to think that a certain player looks scummy, you run into confirmation bias problems. You can talk yourself into almost anything looking scummy. So here’s what I’m going to. I’ll re-read again and start taking notes on the marginally scummy things that I see. I’ll post them, but with the understanding that I know that what I’m posting is weak evidence at best. You guys read through what I’ve got, keep in mind that I’m probably putting the worst possible spin on things, and decide.
Now, zuma asked me who I felt was scummiest based on vote patterns. This isn’t exactly my forte, but there’s definitely something that sticks out at me. Here are the final vote tallies, as collected by zuma. Hawkeyeop has voted with the majority every day. He’s a bandwagoner, and notice that he only voted for Freud when it became obvious that she was going to hang(full disclosure: my vote came in 5 minutes before his. Still, at 5-4 Freud’s lynch was not a sure thing at the time).
Based on everything I’ve seen, especially today, here’s how my suspicions lie:
Certain is scum
Hawkeyeop
Very Suspicious Of
Hockey Monkey
Could Go Either Way
sachertorte
HazelNutCoffee
If They’re Scum Why Do the Scum Keep Harping on Them?
brewha
faithfool
Strongly Pro-Town
Pleonast
zuma
I Know that I’m Town
Rysto
Oh, and to be clear sach and Hazel are in the “Could Go Either Way” category because I have strong pro-town feelings from those below them on the list and strong scum feelings from those above them. Those two are the two I don’t have a proper read on at the moment. By the process of elimination I’m certain that the last scum is in that group, but I don’t have any strong feelings about either.
I don’t doubt that I’m playing very differently than in M5. M5 was my first game. I was much more active in the beginning. I’m pretty sure you can map my declining participation level from M5 through The Conspiracy and through this game itself.
I have a very different impression of my M5 game. My recollection is that I was right about NAF, and that was pretty much it. I distinctly remember being dead wrong about Kyrie Eleison. Also wrong about fluiddruid, Scuba_Ben, and Queuing.
My suspicions of brewha include his Day One behavior which I have trouble reconciling from a logical townie perspective.
In addition brewha escaped Day 3, which combined with Day 5’s makes brewha my prime candidate.
The main argument against HazelNutCoffee that I find compelling is the Day 5 vote dynamic which implicates both brewha and HazelNutCoffee. I see the scumminess in how the vote developed around HazelNutCoffee. I do not see the scumminess in HazelNutCoffee’s voting history. I’m fine with lynching HazelNutCoffee based on Day 5, but brewha’s Day 1 and Day 3 in addition to Day 5 push brewha ahead of HazelNutCoffee for me.
To anyone voting (or considering) Hazel:
Why would she vote for Dio when there were other town members already with votes? If her main goal was to not get lynched, shouldn’t she have picked someone who already had a vote on them?
Sach,
Do you have thoughts on Rysto? If you have already expressed them, can you point me to where they are?
Hey, I need to get you guys a vote count. Sorry one hasn’t come sooner, but I have been really sick all week.
3 - brewha (hawk, sach, faithfool)
2 - HazelNutCoffee (Pleo, zuma)
1 - Hawkeyeop (rysto)
1 - Rysto (HM)
The Day ends on Sunday. 5 votes starts the clock, 6 will end the Day.
I had a thought this morning about dossiers. Specifically, I was wondering how it was the Freudian had such a normal-looking dossier when it very much seems that she was a killer who lied about it. So I asked myself, “If I were scum, how would I lie about my dossier to make the lie plausible?” And the answer hit me: mix up the scum dossiers. There are 5 scum dossiers and 5 private traits, so each silent pig chooses 1 private trait from each dossier. It’s perfect. Each silent pig has a perfectly legitimate-looking dossier, because their dossier is made up of nothing but real traits, and they didn’t have to copy from a townie’s dossier. But each scum also has plausible deniability for night-kills, because it’s very likely that different scum will match traits from different night-kills.
Is my explanation clear enough? Maybe a quick example will clarify what I mean. Let’s say we have five scum: A, B, C, D and E. Each scum has 1 public trait(Ap, Bp, etc) and 5 private traits(for A: A1, A2, A3, A4, A5).
Scum A would claim private traits A1,B1, C1, D1 and E1. Scum B would claim A2, B2, C2, D2 and E2. And so on.
So let’s say A is the night killer. Night 1, one of his traits is revealed; let’s say it was A2. Night 2, another trait is revealed, maybe A1. Scum B can say, “See? I’m not the killer; I don’t have trait A1.” Scum A can say that’s he’s not the killer because he doesn’t have trait A2. Plausible deniability. Unless you’re OAOW, the unluckiest scum in the world, and on night 0 A1 gets chosen and on night 1 Ap gets chosen.
Night 1: I once drove a VW Bug through the front door of a 7/11.(OAOW)
Night 2: I’ve had sex underneath the Washington Monument. (OAOW, Kat)
Night 3: I’ve eaten grilled cow udder more than once. (sachertorte, OAOW)
Night 4: I once drove a VW Bug through the front door of a 7/11. (Hockey Monkey)
Night 5: My great-great-grandfather was a duke in Sicily. (zuma, HazelNutCoffee)
Night 6: I believe that homosexuals should be allowed to be as miserable as straight couples. If they want to get married, let them. (Hal)
…
Well, fuck. And I was so excited about this theory, too.
NETA: Obviously the Night 1 and Night 4 traits match both Hockey Monkey and OAOW.
I am now going to argue against a brewha lynch, again.
Going over day 1 votes, I find it incredibly unlikely that 3 out of the first 4 mhaye voters would be scum. It’d be something I’ve never seen before on day one of mafia. And, while faithfool piled up early votes, MHaye and I were gaining votes.
The MHaye votes went like this:
OAOW
zuma
brewha
freudian slit
brewha had an easy out voting for either me, or more likely a throwaway. And if brewha were scum, placing a third vote on MHaye, I doubt freudian would come in and place a fourth vote. brewha as scum making that vote makes no sense.
This bears repeating. Scum placing 3 out of the first 4 votes on the day 1 lynch would be something I have never witnessed before.
If you agree with me that brewha and HNC are probably not both town, HNC seems to me the easiest one to lynch, based on voting history described by Pleonast, which I agree with.
I would also support a rysto, sach, or faithfool lynch.
And brewha I’m tired of doing your homework for you 
I’m by no means a decent mafia player, while being town. I think I’m ok as scum, as I have a bit of an evil streak in me heh. But as town, all I’ve ever done is try to be as open as possible (and it got me killed on day one more than a few times), and have learned to look at throwaway votes, vote patterns, and whatnot as potential scum tells.
I’m town, and I think brewha would be a terrible, terrible lynch candidate today. So I think Day 5 is very important, and HNC is the better candidate of the two.
Good god I hope I’m not looking like an idiot on the spoiler boards right now :I
We now have 24 hours to lynch and I think we need to get our votes in.
Well, it was NAF who kept on about killing you. I’ll give you that. However the change in playing style continues to give me pause. Now I want you dead
Why can’t I quit you, sach?
This question is for sachertorte:
What do you think of my argument that brewha would be less likely to be scum than HNC, based on my analysis that it would be unlikely to assume that 3 out of the first four mhaye voters on day one would be scum. It’s on record that you agree with my opinion that brewha and HNC are unlikely to both be town.
I’m really torn on who to vote for. The only thing I have concluded is that Zuma is town. I’m a very unpopular person to back and if Zuma were scum it’d be easy to convince others to lynch me.
I trust Zuma and I’m going to go along with Dio’s lynch saving scum. So,
Vote HazelNutCoffee
Sorry to say, but this vote from me is set in stone. I’ll likely not have internet access again until after the day is over.
sach, I’m having trouble with your logic here. I am sorry to keep hammering you on this, but I now want to ask you what it was about brewha’s day one behavior which bothers you. His attack on me? That seems to me to be something scum would not do as I have outlined before.
Also, you say you do not see the scumminess in HNC voting history. You disagree with the vote history analysis, which, to me looks like a scum voting history. Frankly, HNC voting history leaves a lot to be desired, to say the least
I think that the assumption that either brewha or Hazel must be scum is an entirely unwarranted. Suppose neither of them were scum. Then it doesn’t matter what happens: Dio is lynched, brewha is lynches, Hazel gets lynched, or there’s no lynch. All of these outcomes are equally good for the scum. If that’s the case, it’s very hard to draw any conclusions about what the scum would do: they’d most likely just do their best to stay unnoticed.
Just think about this. Dio lynch makes just as much sense if neither brewha or Hazel are scum.
So since you haven’t seen it before it can’t be true? Why wouldn’t the scum vote in that matter? Because it looks too scummy? Obviously not, as you are convinced that this action alone makes it impossible that Brewha is scum. The scum know what analysis is used to find them. Why wouldn’t they want to trip us up by doing things like this?
It is nice how your analysis eliminates you as a suspect too. Maybe Brewha and you are both scum and you tried a trick right out of the gate. Is that why you are so determined to use voting analysis?
Can you answer my question above on why Hazel would vote for Dio instead of someone who already had votes on them?
The way I see it, it would be much easier for scum to add their votes to a front runner than it would be to get someone else lynched. Since I do a great job of diverting suspicion away from the real scum, they didn’t see the point in lynching me, and since HNC is scum, they didn’t want to lynch her.
The only other option was to ‘get a bandwagon rolling’ on someone else. I’m feeling pretty good about a HNC lynch.