Zuma, it’s warmed up a bit here. It’s a balmy 30ºF as we speak.
Last week we were having high temps below zero. So it’s an improvement.
I may have to take you up on that trip to CA, I’m sick of this weather!
That is unless you’re scum playing me - than you can bask in nice weather by yourself! That’ll teach ya!
than, of course should be then.
This no edit rule is making one of my pet peeves stare me in the face. GRRR!
Sach,
Where in Cambridge are you? I’m right past the border around Porter Square.
I see I didn’t get lynched, but unfortunately, I’m still internet-less. (Thank Og for my friend’s brief use of their laptop again.) So, I’ll be here for just a bit… if anyone wants to let me know if I need to do anything special because of my screwed up inability to post. If that makes sense. Anyway, I don’t know if they’ll get the computer back up and running or not after all. Doesn’t look too good, does it? But I at least wanted to let everyone know where I was and what all was going on. I’ll check back but I’m not sure how soon I can get back online once I log off this time. Sorry.
Hey, we like air we can chew on. 
Although with all the stuff falling out of the sky lately (I heard on TV it’s called rain, but it I don’t believe what I hear), the skies are clearing up. I can actually see mountains with snow on them. Eerie.
BTW, I’ve caught some sort of virus that wreaking havoc on my digestive track, so my posting volume will be low, assuming I survive 'til the Morn.
Well since faithfool is only here for a little bit, I say we start the Day.
Once again it is dawn on your peaceful little mountain retreat. It is a beautiful morning, the smell of hotdogs and unwashed hippies is in the air. For some reason it smells a bit like Berkley. Must be a shift in the winds.
It looks like everyone made it…oh wait where is zuma?
zuma buddy - you were a good assiciate - and you’re dead.
S’what you get for making fun of SoCal. The gods do not look kindly on making fun of the land of milk and honey.
Can we get a collective
vote topdog?
Alright then, back to the game.
This Day will end no later then Tuesday February 12th at Noon pacific time.
With 7 alive it takes 4 to start the clock, and 5 to end the Day.
Go Team!
Well shit. I can’t say I’m surprised though - Zuma was the only one I was sure was town.
Well, it’s time to start looking at votes - it’s what Zuma would’ve wanted. Hawkeyeop seemed very sure that HNC was not scum. I’ll have to look into that.
True, though i do like to hope that if I knew I was wrong, I wouldn’t have been quite as vocal. I don’t think Pleo, Hockey, or Fatih are scum, but I likewise need to go back and see what Hazel being scum does to the rest of the analysis.
Guess that’s all for me now. The weather is getting bad and my friend needs to take the laptop back to work. Hopefully I’ll be able to be back on before the next deadline. I’ll cross my fingers and pray that I make more sense then too. Sorry again everyone.
zuma’s death is a surprise to me, although it really shouldn’t have been. It’s in the scum’s best interest to kill off the most trusted townies and leave the suspicious ones behind to make our decision more confusing. Plus, zuma was instrumental in encouraging discussion. We can’t let ourselves lurk in this game any longer, and I’m well aware that I’m among the worst at lurking. We need information and we need discussion. We need to throw our theories out there and criticize other’s theories, and finally decide on which one is best. YesterDay I thought we did a pretty good job of that, and if we’re to win this game that has to continue.
You all know who my suspects are: Hockey Monkey and Hawkeyeop. I have yet to see any other compelling theory that explains Hazel’s voting patterns, particularly on Day 5. You could explain her not voting for brewha if brewha were scum, but in such a case it’d be even more critical that the voting shift to somebody else, so putting a first vote on Dio with mere hours to go before the deadline makes no sense at all.
But, as I’ve already said, her actions make perfect sense if Hockey Monkey and Hawkeyeop are the last two scum. She did not want to join her fellow scum in voting brewha and have 3 of the first 4 votes be scum. The scum had already been incautious in their voting patterns, and Hazel did not want to risk discovery with victory so close for the scum. She could not risk starting a bandwagon against her fellow scum either. And so she placed a throwaway vote on Dio and hoped that the brewha bandwagon would hold up. When I followed her and voted Dio, though, the scum saw their opportunity to railroad a townie at the last minute and blame the whole thing on me(which is not to say that I’m blameless for the lynch). And so Hockey Monkey went on the Hazel bandwagon(because the whole point was to avoid having the scum on the same bandwagon) and hoped against hope that would be the last vote for Hazel, while Hawk was the third vote on the bandwagon(and it must not be forgotten that he immediately disavowed any responsibility for the lynch – we must remember that it should only be considered a “not Hazel” vote).
Now, I have to allow that my theory does not only implicate Hockey and Hawkeye. faithfool was another brewha voter, and there was also a single vote against faith when Hazel voted. I find it most likely that Hockey is scum, because Hazel, Hawkeyeop and faithfool all voted for Diomedes. I don’t suspect faithfool as much because of the early bandwagons against her(but I need to look much closer at those bandwagons: if the scum weren’t on the bandwagon, that would be a big red flag for me), and also because Hazel voting record in Days 1-4 are harder to explain if faith is scum, but it’s much easier to explain if the other two are scum(again, it goes back to avoiding having all scum on the same bandwagon).
That’s my case against Hockey Monkey and Hawkeyeop. I think that I still need to do a more thorough analysis of them, especially their actions in Days 1-4, but that can come after my 7pm midterm.
I went back through yesterday’s voting with a fine tooth comb. I tried to stay as unbiased as possible. And, despite my best efforts I could find nothing scummy about the way two of my top suspects voted. AAMOF (as a matter of fact - I don’t think anyone uses that, but they should), The way Pleonast and Rysto acted yesterday, I am 90% sure that they are both town.
Rysto, I think you and I can agree on one thing. Hawkeyeop is scum. He fought the HNC lynch tooth and nail all day yesterday. I am certain he is scum and would be very happy to chuck him off the cliff today and you seemed quite certain of his scumminess yesterday.
My #2 suspect is less certain. From yesterday’s conversations, I see that Rysto is suspicious of Hockey. And while I am a bit as well, I think **Sacherote ** is a better canidate.
Pleonast, what do you think? Hockey or Sach? Or someone else? What do you think of Hawkeye?
From most to least suspicious, I would say:
Hawkeyeop
Sacherote
Hockey Monkey
Faithfool
Pleonast
Rysto
Brewha
On preview
Rysto, I like your post. We do need to talk and get things out in the open today. I say we do our best to get Hawkeye lynched today. Will discuss Hockey vs. Sach tomorrow.
When you get a chance, do you mind having a look at Sach? I want to get your opinion.
Here’s yesterday’s voting progression. I promise nothing of accuracy since I seem to have missed where Rysto unvoted Hawkeyeop. But it is, for the most part, correct.
The * denotes the change from the previous tally.
Brewha (1) Hockey*
Brewha(2) Hockey, Hawkeyeop*
Brewha(2) Hockey, Hawkeyeop
Hazelnutcoffee(1) Pleonast*
Brewha(3) Hockey, Hawkeyeop,Sacherote*
Hazelnutcoffee(1) Pleonast
Brewha(4) Hockey, Hawkeyeop,Sacherote,Brewha*
Hazelnutcoffee(1) Pleonast
Brewha(3) Hockey, Hawkeyeop,Sacherote
Hazelnutcoffee(1) Pleonast
Hawkeyeop(1) ,Brewha*
Brewha(4) Hockey, Hawkeyeop,Sacherote,Faithfool*
Hazelnutcoffee(1) Pleonast
Brewha(4) Hockey, Hawkeyeop,Sacherote,Faithfool
Hazelnutcoffee(2) Pleonast, Zuma*
Brewha(3) Hawkeyeop,Sacherote,Faithfool
Hazelnutcoffee(2) Pleonast, Zuma
Hawkeyeop(1) Rysto*
Brewha(3) Hawkeyeop,Sacherote,Faithfool
Hazelnutcoffee(2) Pleonast, Zuma
Hawkeyeop(1) Rysto
Rysto(1) HockeyMonkey*
Brewha(3) Hawkeyeop,Sacherote,Faithfool
Hazelnutcoffee(3) Pleonast, Zuma,Brewha*
Hawkeyeop(1) Rysto
Rysto(1) HockeyMonkey
Brewha(3) Hawkeyeop,Sacherote,Faithfool
Hazelnutcoffee(4) Pleonast, Zuma,Brewha, Rysto*
Rysto(1) HockeyMonkey
Brewha(3) Hawkeyeop,Sacherote,Faithfool
Hazelnutcoffee(5) Pleonast, Zuma,Brewha, Rysto, HockeyMonkey*
HockeyMonkey’s biggest protown action was hammering HNC. If Hockey were indeed scum, she could have easily voted me and claimed it was what she’s been doing all game.
By voting alone, I see Hawkeyeop and Sach and the mostly likely scum.
to finish my thought. If Hockey did vote me, we would have had a no lynch which would have been great for the scum.
We had a scum lynch which - unless the scum have something up their sleeves - is very devastating for the scum.
I did it in the same post I voted for Hazel.
She could have, to be sure. But, if you are Town(and I definitely believe that you are), that would have looked extremely suspicious. Hammering Hazel gives her some wiggle room to argue for her towniness, while putting a vote on you would have required Hazel to be the hammer(as there was little chance that Pleonast, zuma, you, or I were going to drop the hammer on you).
Of course, this is just an example of the confirmation bias problem I was talking about earlier: Hockey being the hammer on Hazel was pro-town, no doubt about that. But it’s easy to spin any pro-town action as being scummy if one’s inclined to look at the facts in that way.
Yeah, I see why Hockey wouldn’t have voted for me. It could outed whoever played the hammer as well as outing her if she were indeed scum.
But it seems to me that she would have been better off to just vote someone else or not vote at all - rather than guarantee a lynch of one of the last remaining scum.
She’s second on your suspect list anyway - and 3rd on mine.
I’d like to hear what Pleo and faithfool think of Hawkeye.
I’d like to hear from Hockey and Sach as well. We definitely need some conversation.
Still in the sicker than better category, but I’ll do a colored vote count post and then my analysis of it sometime soon.
Very cleverly worded. It’s not screaming - I’m town! It’s suggesting that you didn’t know Hazel’s alignment which means that you couldn’t possibly be scum. Subtle and clever - but I don’t buy it.
So, by a simple elimination, you are saying that you don’t trust Rysto, Sach, or me.
I’d like some reasoning behind this mistrust.
Rysto has done nothing scummy. My only reason to not trust him was that he seemed to be lurking early in the game. He wasn’t posting much which is a good strategy for scum - it attracts less attention. But, lately he has been making solid arguements.
I’d like to point out that Zuma had been heavily defending me - which was quite the unpopular stance at the time. The two most likely scenarios were that both Zuma and I are scum and she was defending me to help our team or that both Zuma and I are town and she was defending me to help our team. We now know that Zuma is town, so the first scenario is impossible. I realize that this in no way exonerates me, but you should at least be able to consider that I am not scum.
But, then again, I’m quite certain that you know I’m not scum. You know because you know who all the scum are and have known since the beginning. And, your trust of Hockey/distrust of Sach inclines me to side with Rysto on the scumminess of Hockey.
Seriously guys, we need more participation than this. One post every 12hrs is not a conversation. And I really don’t want to see a flurry of posts pop up at the end of the day. So, lets have a nice even paced conversation and see where everyone stands.
On preview.
I’m looking forward to it Pleo. I need another perspective from someone I trust.
Working off of zuma’s last vote count…
Day 1
Mhaye (10): OAOW, zuma, brewha, freudian slit, Diomedes, Hawkeyeop, Kat, Cookies, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey
zuma (4): sachertorte, Mhaye, Hal Briston, HazelNutCoffee
Diomedes (1): storyteller
Hal(1): faithfool
brewha (1): shadowfacts
No Vote (1): Rysto
Day 2
Day 2 votes in correct order… I’m not sure there’s much to be gleaned from day 2, for when Cookies revealed the killer’s trait, a OAOW lynch was inevitable.
However, I thought I’d list the pre-revelation vote count:
brewha (2): shadowfacts, Hockey Monkey
faithfool (2): Diomedes, Pleonast
Diomedes (1): faithfool
Here’s the end of day vote count:
OAOW (10): Hal, Hawkeyeop, sachertorte, shadowfacts, freudian slit, Kat, Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Diomedes, OAOW
Diomedes (1): Rysto
No Vote (5): brewha, Hazel, zuma, story, Pleonast
The only things to note were that Pleonast placed the 5th vote on OAOW, then unvoted because he said he didn’t want to end the day early. Diomedes placed the 9th vote (I think we’ve discussed that one), and OAOW self-hammered the 10th vote to end the day instantly. Rysto said he placed his vote on Diomedes because of Diomedes’s 9th vote.
Day 3
Day 3 vote counts: (This was the no-lynch day - Brewha was 1 vote short of majority)
brewha (7): sach, Hockey Monkey, Hawkeyeop, fruedian slit, Rysto, Hal, Pleonast
faithfool (2): Diomedes, zuma
Diomedes (2): faithfool, kat
Hawkeyeop(1): Brewha
No Vote (2): HazelNutCoffee, storyteller
Day 4
Here was the state of voting before story laid out his case against Fruedian Slit if anyone is interested:
brewha (6): Hockey Monkey, freudian slit, hawkeyeop, sachertorte, Diomedes, faithfool
faithfool (2): Pleonast, zuma
Diomedes (1): HazelNutCoffee
Not yet voted: Rysto, storyteller, brewha, Hal
And the final vote count in the correct order:
Freudian Slit (8): storyteller, brewha, zuma, Diomedes, sachertorte, rysto, hawkeyeop, faithfool
brewha (3): Hockey Monkey, Freudian Slit, Pleonast
Diomedes (2): HazelNutCoffee, Hal
Day 5
Hazel: Pleo, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
brewha: faithfool
Diomedes: Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal, sach, brewha
[/QUOTE]
Day 6
HazelNutCoffee: Pleo, zuma, brewha, Rysto, Hockey
brewha: hawk, sach, faithfool
No Vote: Hazel
Those I listed were the ones I had a specific reason to trust. I think Hal more or less confirms Faithfool. Hockey and I have agreed on most things other then Hazel, and as it turns out she was right on that one. Pleo’s system had Hazel as most likely scummy and Zuma and I least likely, so he was right on all three. I would think if he was scum his system was arbitrary enough that he could have caused the results to be off more.
So for everyone else I need to reevaluate my opinions, since they were based on faulty reasoning. I was convinced Rysto and you were scummy, but now I need to see if the new data supports this conclusion. Thinks that jump out at me right now are Hazel’s refusal to vote for you and Sach having a dossier item of a killer. I think we have been assuming the scum lied more then they actually did about dossiers.
Based off my analysis from YesterDay, subtracting out zuma and Hazel…
Day 1
1 scum in brewha, Hawkeyeop, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey
1 scum in sachertorte, faithfool, Rysto
Day 3
1 scum in sach, Hockey Monkey, Hawkeyeop, Rysto, Pleonast
1 scum in faithfool, Brewha
Day 4
1 scum in brewha, sachertorte, rysto, hawkeyeop, faithfool
1 scum in Hockey Monkey, Pleonast
Day 5
1 scum in Rysto, Hawkeye, sach, brewha
1 scum in Pleo, Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Day 6
I think one scum must have voted for Hazel, otherwise we’d have an easy time picking the rest of them off. So:
1 scum in Pleo, brewha, Rysto, Hockey
1 scum in hawk, sach, faithfool
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
My scumminess assessment of everyone, on a scale of 0-100, with the RMS* at the end:
faithfool: 33 50 20 33 33 = 35
Pleonast: 25 20 50 33 25 = 32
brewha: 25 50 20 25 25 = 31
Hockey: 25 20 50 25 25 = 31
Hawkeye: 25 20 20 33 33 = 27
sach: 33 20 20 25 33 = 27
Rysto: 33 20 20 25 25 = 25
For my own vote, I’ll make use of my own Towniness:
Hockey: 33 25 100 50 33 = 55
faithfool: 33 50 20 50 33 = 39
brewha: 33 50 20 25 33 = 34
Hawkeye: 33 25 20 25 33 = 28
sach: 33 25 20 25 33 = 28
Rysto: 33 25 20 25 33 = 28
It looks like Hockey clearly has the most scummy vote record at this point. But besides that, she has a record of continual pushing for a brewha lynch. That’s feeling more like scum stirring the pot. It worked for me once, so here’s hoping:
vote Hockey Monkey
*Root mean square–I use it because it gives more weight to high scores than a simple average. Feel free to do your own number crunching if you don’t like it. 