You-Solve-It Mafia Game

The Game Room
1521

[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
Those I listed were the ones I had a specific reason to trust. I think Hal more or less confirms Faithfool. Hockey and I have agreed on most things other then Hazel, and as it turns out she was right on that one. Pleo’s system had Hazel as most likely scummy and Zuma and I least likely, so he was right on all three. I would think if he was scum his system was arbitrary enough that he could have caused the results to be off more.

So for everyone else I need to reevaluate my opinions, since they were based on faulty reasoning. I was convinced Rysto and you were scummy, but now I need to see if the new data supports this conclusion. Thinks that jump out at me right now are Hazel’s refusal to vote for you and Sach having a dossier item of a killer. I think we have been assuming the scum lied more then they actually did about dossiers.
[/QUOTE]

Townies can never have a specific reason to trust someone in a no-power role game. Scum, on the other hand can trust people because they know their alignment. **Hawkeyeop ** has been buddying up to me all game and I don’t like it at all. I’m going to wait for zuma’s death post before making any further analysis.

1522

[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
Townies can never have a specific reason to trust someone in a no-power role game. Scum, on the other hand can trust people because they know their alignment. **Hawkeyeop ** has been buddying up to me all game and I don’t like it at all. I’m going to wait for zuma’s death post before making any further analysis.
[/QUOTE]

Those are people that I believe are less likely to be scum. As Hazel shows, it is certainly possible I’m wrong. Zuma trusted Dio, he wasn’t scum, nor did he have a special power. If you scroll up this page a little you will find this line from Brewha.

So is Brewha scummy then? I don’t believe you are scummy, but I certainly am willing to reconsider.

1523

[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Based off my analysis from YesterDay, subtracting out zuma and Hazel…

Day 1
1 scum in brewha, Hawkeyeop, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey
1 scum in sachertorte, faithfool, Rysto

Day 3
1 scum in sach, Hockey Monkey, Hawkeyeop, Rysto, Pleonast
1 scum in faithfool, Brewha

Day 4
1 scum in brewha, sachertorte, rysto, hawkeyeop, faithfool
1 scum in Hockey Monkey, Pleonast

Day 5
1 scum in Rysto, Hawkeye, sach, brewha
1 scum in Pleo, Hockey Monkey, faithfool

Day 6
I think one scum must have voted for Hazel, otherwise we’d have an easy time picking the rest of them off. So:
1 scum in Pleo, brewha, Rysto, Hockey
1 scum in hawk, sach, faithfool

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

My scumminess assessment of everyone, on a scale of 0-100, with the RMS* at the end:
faithfool: 33 50 20 33 33 = 35
Pleonast: 25 20 50 33 25 = 32
brewha: 25 50 20 25 25 = 31
Hockey: 25 20 50 25 25 = 31
Hawkeye: 25 20 20 33 33 = 27
sach: 33 20 20 25 33 = 27
Rysto: 33 20 20 25 25 = 25

For my own vote, I’ll make use of my own Towniness:
Hockey: 33 25 100 50 33 = 55
faithfool: 33 50 20 50 33 = 39
brewha: 33 50 20 25 33 = 34
Hawkeye: 33 25 20 25 33 = 28
sach: 33 25 20 25 33 = 28
Rysto: 33 25 20 25 33 = 28

It looks like Hockey clearly has the most scummy vote record at this point. But besides that, she has a record of continual pushing for a brewha lynch. That’s feeling more like scum stirring the pot. It worked for me once, so here’s hoping:
vote Hockey Monkey

*Root mean square–I use it because it gives more weight to high scores than a simple average. Feel free to do your own number crunching if you don’t like it. :stuck_out_tongue:
[/QUOTE]

Pleo, this doesn’t make any sense at all. Your first mistake is assuming that the scum will divide themselves out evenly. Your reasonings here are complete BS. I don’t CLEARLY have the scummiest vote record because I don’t think anyone can understand what your numbers mean. I certainly don’t. You could have pulled them out of your ass for all I know. I can’t refute what you put up there because you didn’t explain it at all. I’ve continually pushed for a **brewha ** lynch because I thought he was scum. He might still be scum. I’m not assuming anyone isn’t scum.

We don’t have a mislynch to throw away here. Scum are 2 mislynches away from a win. If we give one up today, I don’t think we will be able to recover. All they will have to do is get one townie to agree with them and it’s done. I am not scum. I’ve don’t nothing but try to lynch scum. If I get lynched today, we will lose. I’m not sure who the right candidate is, but I *know * it’s not me.

1524

[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
snip
So is Brewha scummy then? snip

[/QUOTE]

Ummm, have I been on the fence about that at all? :stuck_out_tongue:

1525

[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
Pleo, this doesn’t make any sense at all. Your first mistake is assuming that the scum will divide themselves out evenly. Your reasonings here are complete BS. I don’t CLEARLY have the scummiest vote record because I don’t think anyone can understand what your numbers mean. I certainly don’t. You could have pulled them out of your ass for all I know. I can’t refute what you put up there because you didn’t explain it at all. I’ve continually pushed for a **brewha ** lynch because I thought he was scum. He might still be scum. I’m not assuming anyone isn’t scum.
[/quote]
I haven’t assumed the scum evenly divided themselves. Go back to my post yesterDay (1314) for the specifics. Day 1: scum split in same pattern as town. Day 2: not enough info to tell. Day 3: scum split for/against brewha. Day 4: scum avoided voting for Freud. Day 5: scum avoided voting for Hazel. Day 6: one scum voted for Hazel, the rest didn’t. From there, I subtracted out the players we now know the alignments of. That left the scum distribution I posted toDay.

I then computed a scumminess of everyone. YesterDay, I wrote it as a simple fraction, today I converted to a percent, for easier comparison. I did the calculation based on my attempt at objectivity, and again using my own alignment.

You came out most scummy, based on the voting patterns of the five Days I analyzed. This same pattern analysis worked well for me before, and so I’m going to keep using it. I’m open to other arguments, though. And I still need to consider who else I think is scum.

Please, let’s not focus on the specifics of my method. I’ve laid it out; it’s only one vote. If you’re Town and I’m on the wrong track, your best chance to change my vote is to put out a good case against someone else. I don’t believe my method enough that’ll ignore other’s ideas.

We need everyone to make their own arguments.

1526

I’ve done my own interpretation of vote histories. Everyone gets a +1 for voting scum, -1 for voting town, and 0 for not voting or voting for an unknown.

Brewha -0+±+ = 1
Faithfool -±+00 = 0
Hawkeyeop -+0+00 = 1
HockeyMonkey -+00++ = 2
Pleonast -000++ = 1
Rysto 0-0±+ = 0
Sacherote -±±0 = -1

This makes HockeyMonkey look least scummy.
Pleo, Hawkeye, and myself are mildly town.
Faith and Rysto are neutral.
And Sacherote is mildly scummy.

But, I know I’m town. So if I take that into account and change me from unknown to town, I get:

Brewha -0+±+ = 1
Faithfool -±±- = -2
Hawkeyeop -±±- = -2
HockeyMonkey -±-++ = 0
Pleonast -0–++ = -1
Rysto 0–±+ = -1
Sacherote -±±- = -2

This makes me slightly town
HockeyMonkey neutral
Rysto and Pleo slightly scummy
And Hawkeye, Faith, and Sach most scummy.

Of course this doesn’t mean much. I think we can agree that there are only 2 scum left. There are three tied for most scummy voting pattern. I’d also like to point out that this only entails final votes. I may have to go back through and see who voted and unvoted for people. I know that HockeyMonkey has unvoted me a few times.

I tried doing the same type of a tally for yesterday by itself, but all I came up with was that Hawkeye, Sach, and Faithfool vote for me instead of HNC. The rest of us (including Zuma) voted HNC. Not really anything to analyze. I need to start from the beginning I think.

1527

Are we just waiting for zuma’s death post?

1528

I wouldn’t bother. We haven’t learned anything of interest from the last several night posts; why would this one be any different?

Expect more from me on the weekend, but not much until then.

1529

The remaining associates were disappointed the silent killer said nothing to zuma before dispatching him, offering no clue as to the killer’s identity.

Then a few of you quickly realized that if you could find his phone… Could zuma have actually photographed his killer? A frenzied search quickly ensued in the fields next to the cliff where he met his demise. Eventually the phone was found, and the remaining associates excitedly paged through dozens of, well, candid, and a few frankly embarassing, shots zuma had taken over the past week. Eventually arriving at the last image he had taken.

You were considerably less excited when it turned out zuma’s photographic skills turned out to be as good as his texting skills. No face was present in the photograph, just a partial figure wearing the company-provided parka all assosciates wear.

Upon closer examination, you saw something new which suprised you. A button, like a campign button. It looked like this:

@ C
[sup]______[/sup]
N M

You wish it were bigger, but buttons aren’t like belt buckles, there’s an upper limit to their size.

Enjoy,
Steven

1530

The only thing that I got out of that was that it’s the same killer as the last two nights. Guess Hazel wasn’t a killer.

The clue is leaving me totally baffled. “@C”? “At sea”, maybe? Maybe it’s One of my high school classmates was killed in the attack on the USS Stark. but I can’t make NM fit. Nobody by the initials NM was killed on the Stark.

1531

[QUOTE=Rysto]
The only thing that I got out of that was that it’s the same killer as the last two nights. Guess Hazel wasn’t a killer.

The clue is leaving me totally baffled. “@C”? “At sea”, maybe? Maybe it’s One of my high school classmates was killed in the attack on the USS Stark. but I can’t make NM fit. Nobody by the initials NM was killed on the Stark.
[/QUOTE]

Where are you getting @C from? There are four sysmbols. It looks like tools, a city, a pirate symbol, and a bomb. Not that I know what it means. I think Hazel was a killer they used earlier, but not the most recent one.

1532

“I’ve wandered and built on an old, live Soviet bomb dump.” ?

1533

[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
Where are you getting @C from? There are four sysmbols. It looks like tools, a city, a pirate symbol, and a bomb. Not that I know what it means. I think Hazel was a killer they used earlier, but not the most recent one.
[/QUOTE]

:confused:

I see the following:

[QUOTE=mtgman]
@ C

N M
[/quote]

Can we get some mod clarification here?

1534

NETA: Apparently my Linux machine doesn’t support the webdings and wingdings fonts.

1535

[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
“I’ve wandered and built on an old, live Soviet bomb dump.” ?
[/QUOTE]

If that is what it means (I can see the connection) that trait is held alone by Pleonast.

1536

I’m going to agree with the bomb dump interpretation, but I’m still stymied by the rabbit training part.

1537

[QUOTE=brewha]
If that is what it means (I can see the connection) that trait is held alone by Pleonast.
[/QUOTE]

Well, Pleo was the only one who claimed that trait, anyway.

[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
I’m going to agree with the bomb dump interpretation, but I’m still stymied by the rabbit training part.
[/QUOTE]

It’s a reference to storyteller’s death. He was killed by a vicious trained rabbit, remember?

1538

I hope you’re right Rysto. I’ve been going over Pleo’s voting history - trying to see why he would vote the way he did were he scum.

I can’t put it together. He stayed on the Hazel vote even when the Dio wagon got rolling. I didn’t put the last Dio vote down until about 30min before nightfall. If he were scum, I would think that he would’ve taken the opportunity to ensure a Dio lynch.

Then, he came right back the next day and voted Hazel again, this time with success.

Of course, that’s based on the voting analysis that Pleo posted. I’m going to have to go over this myself. Barring a majority vote, day lasts until Tues. I’m going to do a complete re-read, but won’t have time until this weekend.

1539

NETA - my thought wasn’t clear. I meant to say:
I hope you’re right Rysto. I hope that someone else has the ‘bombs’ trait and just didn’t claim it.

1540

I’m seeing @CNM on my Windows machine here. Is there a coding problem?

It’s probably worthwhile to go back and look at the Dossiers carefully. We know they withheld/lied about some traits. There may be some pattern discernible from our confirmed Dossiers that will reveal some inconsistency in the remaining Scum’s claimed Dossiers. I’m certainly not the killer, so I know something’s not right.

It’d be nice to see more analyses than just mine and brewha’s.