Does anyone really take the National Weather Service’s hurricane predictions seriously?
Other than the times when there are measurable global climate changes (such as El Niño, when there is less activity than average, an La Niña, when there is more), there predictions are meaningless, IMO.
Typically, the prediction is “This could be one of the most active hurricane seasons we’ve had in years.” 50/50 chance of that–either it is, or it isn’t.
This year, the prediction was, “We think the hurricane season will begin much earlier than usual.”
The first named tropical storm occurred in August.
When the hurricane season got off to such a slow start, their prediction was 8 tropical storms, with 4 developing into hurricanes–ever so slightly below the 30-year average.
When there was still no tropical storm activity later on, they revised it downward even more: 7 and 3.
Final tally: listed in the subject.