2010 NFL Draft Thread: April 22nd - 24th

[VarlosZ]

A sampling of scouting notes on the Giants’ draftees, from various sources. See if you can spot a common theme.
Rd 1 - #15(15) Jason Pierre-Paul (DE) S Florida – Major upside … Extremely raw … Limited experience against top competition … Spent just one season with the Bulls and only started 7 games … Will require some patience but potential is undeniable and almost limitless

Rd 2 - #14(46) Lindval Joseph (DT) E Carolina – An extremely intriguing prospect with a rare blend of size, brute strength, and athleticism … A bit raw but still has a world of potential.

Rd 3 - #12(76) Chad Jones (S) LSU – Major upside … Raw with poor technique … Doesn’t play to timed speed … A better athlete than football player at this point … Extremely talented and athletic but will most likely be brought along very slowly.

Rd 4 - #17(115) Phillip Dillard (ILB) Nebraska – [Online scouting reports suggest he already has relatively well-rounded football skills.]

Rd 5 - #16(147) Mitch Petrus (OG) Arkansas – He was a top performer at the NFL Scouting Combine in the bench press … He is still learning the position but shows enough raw talent and athleticism to make you think he has a chance to be a quality starter with work and practice.

Rd 6 - #15(184) Adrian Tracy (OLB) W & Mary – Another conversion prospect from the CAA … A bit of 'tweener, size wise, he will have make the transition to outside linebacker at the next level.

Rd 7 - #14(221) Matt Dodge § E Carolina – [He’s a punter; either he can kick the ball or he can’t.]
I’m not opposed to the idea of taking the occasional flyer on a developmental project, but I think it’s problematic when your whole draft is built around the notion that “If these guys get good at playing football, watch out!” Granted, I can see the temptation to try something like this since the Giants didn’t really have any holes (aside from MLB), but this class doesn’t sit right with me.

[Omniscient]

The Bears absolutely should check into adding Alan Faneca this offseason.

[FoieGrasIsEvil]

@Omniscient

The Bears absolutely should check into adding Alan Faneca this offseason.

I was kind of hoping the Bengals would look into it too, but I have a feeling that Faneca is wanting far more money than most teams are going to be willing to pay for a guard. And he’s 33.

[garygnu]

Damn. They gave Taylor Mays 23 as a jersey number. 49 would have sold like hotcakes.

[wolfman]

And Donovan Warren, Michigan cornerback who declared early and went undrafted, apparently has announced he signed with the Jets. Seems rather odd both ways, I’m not sure exactly what the odds of making that team as a cornerback right now are.

[garygnu]

Wow, a 7th Round cornerback. Those always work out. I think the 49ers draft dropped off in the later rounds, but I may only be thinking that because I’m actually paying attention to the entire draft this year.

[VarlosZ]

@Omniscient

It all depends how tightly you define the tiers. For this strategy to be sound you have to be damn sure that that group of “equal” players really are equal. In many cases there aren’t clearly defined tiers. This draft I think is filled with those cases.

But the tiers are team-specific, not draft-specific. That is, a tier is defined as a group of players that are preferred by the team in roughly equal measure (because of their particular needs as well as their particular assessments), not a group that’s preferred by *consensus *more or less equally.

I think the Gradkowski move was a panic move. They might justify it by saying “he was the last guy remaining in a tier” but the end result amounts to the same thing, they traded up to get the least certain guy in a group instead of trading up to get the most certain guy in a group. It’s fundamentally flawed logic.

True, using this strategy will tend to land you the players within your tier who are less preferred by other teams, but not necessarily less preferred by yourself. And even to the extent that it does tend to land you the less certain players within your tier, it’s not flawed logic at all. Would you rather have a guy that you consider to be an 85 out of 100, or a guy you consider to be an 82/100 in addition to extra 3rd and 4th Round picks?

Assuming the consensus view of what the Pats needs were is correct, it’s impossible to not see that the elite prospects at those need positions all got drafted right before their picks.

Like I implied above, following this strategy will tend to land you your more esoteric preferences, but their being esoterically preferred doesn’t necessarily make those players inferior (for your purposes) to the consensus top remaining prospects. Just because most draftniks (or even most NFL teams) think there’s a big difference between Players A and B doesn’t mean they’re right, and it *certainly *doesn’t mean that Player B can’t be an as-good-or-better fit for a specific team than Player A.

Of course, there’s a certain amount of necessary ignorance here. For all I know, maybe the Patriots really are kicking themselves for getting scooped on a bunch of players they wanted, and of course it’s possible that they got the players they wanted but are just dead wrong about their true value. However, to the extent that they’re legitimately of the opinion that (for example) Rob Grankowski will help their team about as much as the players at other need positions who were drafted ahead of him, I think granting New England at least the tentative benefit of the doubt is quite reasonable at this point.

That’s bad drafting when you let that happen when you have a metric ton of picks to use.

But the only reason they have a metric ton of picks to use in the first place is because they follow this strategy.

[Hamlet]

Damn real life. Although I’m actually happy I didn’t sit around waiting to see who the Packers drafted. Or, more precisely, who they didn’t draft. Sometime you just gotta shake your head.

It was a roller coaster ride. I loved getting Bulaga at #23 (good value, position of need), I hated getting Mike Neal in the 2nd round (ignored a lot of talent to make a major reach), I loved getting Morgan Burnett (they NEED him to pan out), I hated getting Andrew Quarless (again, ignoring a lot of talent to grab another iffy character guy), I loved getting Marshall Newhouse (OK value, but I love his versatility and smarts), didn’t care about Starks (don’t draft injured guys TT!), and Wilson was just another fat guy warm body (does this mean we get to give up on Justin Harrell or do you just love wasting picks?).

This draft will be more about what TT didn’t do than what he did. Ignoring the need to get help in the secondary, getting another pass rusher opposite Matthews (I do like Brad Jones, but he needs to bulk up a bit), and a punter could really hurt this team.

But, if everyone currently on the roster is healthy and continue to develop (I’m looking at you Al Harris, Will Blackmon, Pat Lee, Brett Swain, Kregg Lumpkin, Cyril Obiozor, and Jeremy Thompson) then those holes TT left from the draft won’t be too crippling. It’s nice that TT has enough confidence in the guys on his roster that he doesn’t feel the need to fill holes. But we also learned what TT’s hubris can cost us (the lack of a strong safety, a healthy cornerback, and backup OTs really, really hurt the Packers last year).

Still, I do love the improvement Bulaga and Newhouse bring to the O Line, I like that they were thinking ahead a year or two and getting our 3-4 DE’s in line, and they got a guy who could be a playmaker (please be so, Morgan!).

As usual, the future will tell us how TT did. I’m just not sure it’s going to be all good.

[Omniscient]

@VarlosZ

But the tiers are team-specific, not draft-specific. That is, a tier is defined as a group of players that are preferred by the team in roughly equal measure (because of their particular needs as well as their particular assessments), not a group that’s preferred by *consensus *more or less equally.

Therein lies a big problem. You really shouldn’t be using tiers if you are drafting and building your board based on need. The two stratagem are incompatible. Needs are inherently tied to marginal value, while the general theory of tiers is built on the concept of best player available. Even if the TE need is comparable to the WR and OL needs for the Pats you can’t assign a tier without considering the depth at the given position.

That Pats seem to be using some silly Frankenstein monster of draft strategies and I really don’t think it worked for them this time around.

True, using this strategy will tend to land you the players within your tier who are less preferred by other teams, but not necessarily less preferred by yourself. And even to the extent that it does tend to land you the less certain players within your tier, it’s not flawed logic at all. Would you rather have a guy that you consider to be an 85 out of 100, or a guy you consider to be an 82/100 in addition to extra 3rd and 4th Round picks?

I don’t think the Pats are getting extra 3rd and 4th round picks for that type of step down. In the first round it appears they got none of the players from their first tier and traded back as a result. They gained essentially a 3rd rounder in exchange for moving back to get a player in their second tier. They did the opposite in the second round and gave up a 6th rounder to presumably go up to get the last guy in the third tier.

Now, all this can work but I don’t think moving down a tier is worth adding picks that late in the draft, especially when the guys in that first tier are such good values and fill needs. All in all they simply outwitted themselves. They did one thing in the first round and then did the opposite in the second round. Either they are schizophrenic or they are flat out winging it.

Like I implied above, following this strategy will tend to land you your more esoteric preferences, but their being esoterically preferred doesn’t necessarily make those players inferior (for your purposes) to the consensus top remaining prospects. Just because most draftniks (or even most NFL teams) think there’s a big difference between Players A and B doesn’t mean they’re right, and it *certainly *doesn’t mean that Player B can’t be an as-good-or-better fit for a specific team than Player A.

In 3 of 4 years we’ll see I suppose. Time will tell if Taylor Price and Devin McCourty are more valuable than Dez Bryant and say Akwasi Owusu-Ansah. I know which two I’d rather have.

But the only reason they have a metric ton of picks to use in the first place is because they follow this strategy.

They need to pick their spots. In years past I think they did. This year it looks like they were more attached to their trade strategy than their player acquisition strategy, which sorta misses the point.

[Hamlet]

Picture, if you will:

Sunday, September 12, 2010. The very first week of NFL football. The Seahawks have the ball at midfield early in the second quarter. Matt Hasselback takes the snap, turns, and hands off the ball to LenDale White. White runs off tackle, but there is no hole. He bounces the play outside, heading toward the sideline. He has plenty of daylight to run to. Suddenly, the rookie Strong Safety for the Niners locks onto him and with missile like precision, hones in. White tries to turn the corner, but just as he starts upfield, Taylor Mays dives at his hips, knocking him out of bounds for a 4 yard loss. The collision sends White sprawling straight into … the aged knees of Pete Carrol. Both knees buckle under the hit, and Carrol falls to the ground screaming in pain. Mays gets up, dusts himself off, and heads back to the huddle.

No THAT would be cool.

[Hamlet]

And, to further disappoint me, the Packers haven’t signed David Pender as a free agent. But more on that later.

[FoieGrasIsEvil]

@Hamlet

Picture, if you will:

Sunday, September 12, 2010. The very first week of NFL football. The Seahawks have the ball at midfield early in the second quarter. Matt Hasselback takes the snap, turns, and hands off the ball to LenDale White. White runs off tackle, but there is no hole. He bounces the play outside, heading toward the sideline. He has plenty of daylight to run to. Suddenly, the rookie Strong Safety for the Niners locks onto him and with missile like precision, hones in. White tries to turn the corner, but just as he starts upfield, Taylor Mays dives at his hips, knocking him out of bounds for a 4 yard loss. The collision sends White sprawling straight into … the aged knees of Pete Carrol. Both knees buckle under the hit, and Carrol falls to the ground screaming in pain. Mays gets up, dusts himself off, and heads back to the huddle.

No THAT would be cool.

Wow, you are an evil, bitter man. At least WRT the Bengals I have Kimo “The Assasin” Oelhoffen to hang my hat on…

[VarlosZ]

@Omniscient

Therein lies a big problem. You really shouldn’t be using tiers if you are drafting and building your board based on need. The two stratagem are incompatible. Needs are inherently tied to marginal value, while the general theory of tiers is built on the concept of best player available. Even if the TE need is comparable to the WR and OL needs for the Pats you can’t assign a tier without considering the depth at the given position.

That Pats seem to be using some silly Frankenstein monster of draft strategies and I really don’t think it worked for them this time around.

Every team uses a Frankenstein draft strategy; no one drafts based either entirely on need or completely regardless of it. Draft boards – and hence each team’s sense of tiers – are built on preference, and that preference is based on some variable mixture of BPA, need, and marginal utility.

I don’t think the Pats are getting extra 3rd and 4th round picks for that type of step down. In the first round it appears they got none of the players from their first tier and traded back as a result.

How are we supposed to know that? Maybe things generally blew up in their faces this year, and maybe things went more or less as they expected. That the players that most teams apparently wanted more tended to go to teams other than New England doesn’t tell us much about what the Patriots’ draft board may or may not have looked like.

[Omniscient]

@VarlosZ

How are we supposed to know that? Maybe things generally blew up in their faces this year, and maybe things went more or less as they expected. That the players that most teams apparently wanted more tended to go to teams other than New England doesn’t tell us much about what the Patriots’ draft board may or may not have looked like.

We don’t know and we never will. If we can’t make assumptions based on perception and with hindsight then there’s virtually nothing left to talk about.

However if things went exactly as they intended them to, then that necessarily means that the Pats had Pouncey, Bryant and Gresham in the same tier as McCourty. While my saying the draft blew up in their face might be less true, it opens up another avenue of criticism because I don’t think McCourty is even on the same continent as those guys with the possible exception of a recently injured Gresham.

[Hamlet]

Before I get to the completely wrong, horribly inane, patchwork of idiocy and guessing that is giving out draft grades, I thought I’d list my favorite guys who went undrafted. Of course, the Packers should sign each and every one of these guys, but they haven’t returned my calls offering them my advice. I did get served with something called a “restraining order” though.

Here you go:

Pat Paschall, RB, NDSU
Blair White, WR, Michigan State
Jeremy Williams, WR, Tulane
Shay Hodge, WR, Mississippi
Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green
Tony Washington, OT, Abilene Christian
Chris Marinelli, OT, Stanford
Kevin Haslam, OT, Rutgers
Vince Oghobaase, DT, Duke
Nate Collins, DT, Viriginia
Boo Robinson, DL, Wake Forest
Micah Johnson, OLB, Kentucky
David Pender, CB, Purdue
Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan

If you twisted my arm and I had only three to sign, it would be David Pender, Jeremy Williams, and Tony Washington. I’d love it if the Packers signed any of these guys.

[SenorBeef]

@EllisDee

Your example is unfortunate, in a kind of funny way. During those two 8-8 years when Minnesota was #1 running and against the run and went 8-8 anyway, Drew Brees – who you specifically name as an example of the new paradigm – went 7-9 and 8-8. The third year both teams met each other in overtime of the conference championship game, so the specific examples you chose would seem to imply that neither paradigm is better than the other.

I’m not sure how you think this disproves my point. I didn’t say teams with an elite QB always win 12 games a season or anything, just that it’s clearly the most important position on a team and hitting on one gives you a boost far beyond any other hit.

Minnesota during those years had the #1 rushing attack, #1 rush defense, good overall defenses, and were a pretty well rounded team - they were pretty much better than the Saints in every category except QB, and yet they had the same record. I think this supports my point - that a team with an elite QB that was inferior in every other way to another team had the same results. That they met in the conference championship game, I’m not sure what your point is there - clearly Minnesota was a massively better team with Favre.

Actually, one of the points I consistently try to argue is against cute little truisms that everyone wants to be true that really aren’t. The NFL is a complex game with a lot of ways to succeed, so I hate when people try to reduce it down to something like “run and stop the run” or “defense wins championships”.

[kidchameleon]

@VarlosZ

the Giants didn’t really have any holes (aside from MLB), but this class doesn’t sit right with me.

Yes, a MLB away from turning an 8-8 team into a 14-2 juggernaut.

[Hamlet]

@Hamlet

If you twisted my arm and I had only three to sign, it would be David Pender, Jeremy Williams, and Tony Washington. I’d love it if the Packers signed any of these guys.

On second thought and a bit more research, I’m going to go ahead and strike Tony Washington off the list. He’s got “issues”. Let me put Donovan Warren on there instead.

[Gray_Ghost]

@Hamlet

On second thought and a bit more research, I’m going to go ahead and strike Tony Washington off the list. He’s got “issues”. Let me put Donovan Warren on there instead.

See, I don’t understand the widespread reticence to pick this guy because of character issues. (Which is why I had no problem taking him in the 3rd round of the Cowboys’ mock draft.) He had sex with his 15 year old sister when he was 16. Evidently, the sex was as consensual as sex with your 15 year old sibling could be. He got caught and was sentenced to 5 years probation, which he seems to have completed with nary a peep. All found, for example, here.

I obviously don’t condone what the guy did 7 years ago. He made one hell of a mistake, in what must have been an extremely dysfunctional family, but he served his punishment. And doesn’t seem to have been a bad guy since, which is not something I think you can say about many of the people drafted ahead of him or currently playing in the NFL.

Now, change the hypothetical situation to committing forcible rape, or an ongoing present pattern and practice of this sort of thing, and yeah, throw him into the deepest darkest hole you can find. But this guy seems to have cleaned his act up. Or, maybe he hasn’t, and that’s why every team passed on him.

[Gray_Ghost]

As far as the Texans’ draft and other observations, I obviously like Ben Tate in the 2nd. I love picking up Holliday late, because he was one of the main reasons to watch LSU last year, and because I think it means the Texans can finally send that head-case Jacoby Jones packing. Not sure why they drafted two TEs when they drafted so many last year (3 wasn’t it?) and they still have Owen Daniels. Big vote of confidence for Daniels, isn’t it? I guess the guy from Pitt was just too good to pass up. Not sure about the DT they picked up in the 3rd; “soft against the run” is exactly the kind of guy they had there already.

Would really have liked Reshad Jones instead of the first TE they drafted. They still don’t have a real center-fielder FS, so I guess I get to look forward to watching more highlights of Chris Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark run away from the defense, untouched to the endzone. (The “uncovered TD” by Johnson in Week 2 nearly got me thrown out of the bar where I was watching the game)

Think that Tebow could not have landed in a better situation. He’ll get the time he needs to make this new throwing motion instinctive. I still think the pick was asinine, but he should get every chance he needs to succeed. Similarly with Clausen. Getting to hand off to Williams/Stewart and drop back behind that line is not the worst place for him to be. I do think Clausen will be a better pro than Tebow, if I can get in on that action. Tickled that the Cardinals picked Skelton and I genuinely don’t know which Matt Leinart will show up this year.