The Packers keep on winning, but they sure do look vulnerable doing it. They remind me a lot of the prime of the Peyton-era Colts; other-worldly QB play masking a lot of vulnerabilities all over the team (defense).
How much of Green Bay is a mirage? Outside of NO, they haven’t beaten anyone significant yet (their opponents’ combined record is 18-29). And while their average margin of victory is fantastic, they’re letting some really bad teams get things going against them.
Well, Atlanta is probably better than their record, as yesterday showed, and they are a very tough out at home. And the Bears are 4-3 going into the bye, exactly where they were this time last year. That win was in Chicago.
I’m a little concerned, but a little sanguine at the same time. The Packers have given up a lot of yards when they have big leads (like the Denver game, for instance). They also get a lot of takeaways. Sometime I’ll go to a stats-nerd website and see if anyone has figured out how many yards a takeaway is worth in terms of win % because I’m pretty curious.
So I generally agree – I wish Collins was healthy and I hope Tramon Williams gets back to 100% soon. But I care more about scoring than yardage.
The Packers just keep rolling along. Still the same concerns on defense, still the outstanding play of the best QB in the NFL, still feeling the loss of Nick Collins, and still concerns about the O line. Their inability to put teams away and relaxing on defense late in games is another concern. But they’re still winning.
The Vikings looked like a different team with Ponder in there instead of McNabb, playing with a lot more energy and with a lot more downfield throws. Ponder made more than his fair share of mistakes (those int’s were bad throws), but I think they’re better off with him starting from here on out. Adrian Peterson is still a beast, which is all the more impressive given the crap he has on his offensive line. And Jared Allen made Marshall Newhouse look bad, but he does that a lot. Too bad those guys can’t carry this team alone.
The Bears go to London and get a nice win over the Bucs. Forte looked great (why haven’t they paid him yet?), the Bucs looked horrible (Freeman has really regressed apparently) and Cutler looked like Cutler. Their win could be big by the end of the year, and 4-3 isn’t a horrible place to be for them. I still don’t think they’re a great team, but they’re also not a bad one.
The Lions lose again, and, if you believe the Falcon’s players, in what seems to be poor loser mentality. Stafford has evened out and isn’t playing nearly as well as he did early in the season, and now may be hobbled. The running game had 100 yards, which was a nice surprise, but the offense was pretty anemic overall. They need to get their shit together, suck it up, and get better. It’s nice to see them getting a wake up call.
The Lions started out looking good, but they’re starting to collapse. Now the Bears just need to wait for the Packers to do the same and they’ll be all set, right?
As optimistic as I am, I have a hard time seeing Bears winning the division, barring a major collapse from the Packers. But a wild card spot is certainly doable at this point. They’re 6th in the NFC, and they win the head-to-head tiebreaker with 4-3 Tampa and Atlanta. A lot can happen over the next 10 weeks, but they’re in the hunt.
The offense was missing its starting tailback and center for the whole game, and its second string tailback and first string left guard for most of it. The inability to pick up third downs was a direct result of the loss of Earnest Graham, and forced Freeman to press.
The defense looked awful all by itself, at least for three quarters.
I’ll be honest, I wouldn’t minds if the Pack losses a couple of games along the way.
The Packers and Bears are on bye, so there’s only two NFC North games (both on the road) this weekend, neither of which are very compelling. Good thing I’m going to the symphony on THIS Sunday, because the games could easily turn ugly very quickly.
Vikings at Panthers
In yet another “Battle of the Rookie QB’s”, Cam Newton and Christian Ponder face off in a game that no one should really care about. The Vikings (1-6) are very good at running the ball and stopping the run. The Panthers (2-5) are horrible at stopping the run and very good at passing the ball. This game could be a high scoring affair as Peterson runs for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns and Cam Newton throws for 400 yards and 3 td’s (and a couple interceptions). I think if the Panthers get off to a good start, they can limit the amount of touches AllDay gets and get the win. But if they turn the ball over or if Jared Allen gets to Cam, the Vikings could sneak in a win on the road. I’ll go out on a limb and say that the Vikings get a win in this game.
Lions at Broncos
Tebow tebow, tebow tebow tebow. Tebow tebow, tebow tebow tebow tebow, tebow.
God I’m fucking sick of the media. The real question in this game isn’t Tebow, it’s whether Stafford will be able to start and be effective. If he is, the Lions should win handily against a bad team. If he’s not, Shaun Hill was capable last year, but who knows? The Lions still don’t have a running game, they are having trouble stopping the run, they’ve lost two games in a row, and are on the road. But they get a Broncos team that barely scraped by the worst team in the NFL last week and who has a QB who can’t pass. The Lions are much better than the Dolphins and should gain an easy win this week.
The Vikings win a game. Yay.
Ponder story: I was visiting family in Minnesota last week. One letter writer to the Minneapolis paper thought that starting Ponder against the Packers was a mistake. They should wait until they play Detroit, because of the symbolism of sending a Christian to face the Lions.
Lions are up 17 to 3 over gods chosen one and the Broncos. Two minutes til the half.
The Lions get a dominant win against a very bad team and a very bad QB. Their defensive line made life rough for the opposing QB, even without Suh having a great game they still got 7 sacks. Stafford and Megatron were outstanding, but they still have the same issues (bad running game, not great run defense). Still, it’s hard not to be impressed as they go into their bye week.
The Vikings go into Carolina and get a tough win, just as I predicted (OW! I hurt my shoulder patting myself on the back). All Day shows up in the short passing game, Ponder didn’t make mistakes, and the defense got a couple fumbles from Cam Newton. But Husain Abdullah remains a liability in coverage and Chris Cook’s choking of his girlfriend further depleted their secondary. I think the Vikings are better than their 2-6 record shows, but I don’t think they’re ready to compete against good teams, especially teams with a good passing game.
So the NFC North goes 2-0 this week, albeit against teams with a combined record of 4-11.
After last night’s game I am even more confident going against the Chargers. They are a mess.
How is the Lion collapse?
Am I mistaken, or have most of the non prime time Packer games been at 3:30 central (rather than noon central)?
Is there a reason, or just coincidence?
Brian
The “late games” (i.e., 3:15 Central Time starts) are often the “game of the week” (i.e., the doubleheader game of the network’s coverage). The networks like to put games in that slot which will have broad appeal (and, thus, draw lots of viewers)…as defending Super Bowl champs, that describes the Packers this season.
Looking at their schedule so far this season (including this week):
Saints: home game, Thursday prime time
Carolina: road game, noon start
Bears: road game, 3:15 start
Denver: home game, 3:15 start
Falcons: road game, Sunday prime time
Rams: home game, noon start
Vikings: road game, 3:15 start
Chargers: road game, 3:15 start
So, yeah, out of 8 games, 6 were afternoon games, and four have been “late” games. In addition, the Chargers game, being played in the Pacific time zone, would have been a late start anyway.
With the bye weeks, we’ve once again have only two NFC North teams in action this weekend. The Vikings have the week off and may have righted their ship a bit. The Lions get a week off to celebrate their blowout of a bad team. Onto the games that matter:
Packers at Chargers
What is up with the Chargers? What is up with Phillip Rivers? They are still atop their division, but at 4-3 and some bad play, they’re underachievers who haven’t impressed. The Packers are coming off a bye week (which isn’t the victory assuring fact I had thought) and, while undefeated, are not without their holes. The Chargers are coming off a bad loss and some poor QB play last weekend, and have something to prove at home. I think the Chargers will rebound this week, and have a good game. But I also think the Packers sneak away with a close win. Aaron Rodgers has been simply amazing, and the Packers defense has been very opportunistic. Those two things will make the difference.
Bears at Eagles
What is up with the Eagles? They’re a horribly inconsistent team, but last week they looked like the team they should have been all year. If they’ve finally cut down on the mistakes and are back in shape, they could be scary good from here on out.
Historically, the Bears usually play Michael Vick well. With the Cover 2, the eyes in the backfield, and the speed on defense, Vick hasn’t found the success he has against other teams. The Bears are also coming off a bye, their line has been playing much better, they are getting healthier, and the Eagles D isn’t the best at stopping the run and Forte has been fantastic. The Bears could be looking at an upset in this nice matchup.
But they’re not going to get it. I think the Eagles at home, coming off an big win and the emergence of the LeSean McCoy spells disaster for the Bears. The Eagles D line are going to make mince meat out of the O Line, the Eagles will either sit in zones or sit in the WR’s pockets and make Cutler beat them and he won’t, and the young safeties will be so busy not giving up the big play, LeSean McCoy will have a field day both on the ground and on screens. If the Eagles play like they did last week, it will be an easy win for them. The question is can they do it two weeks in a row.
I think the law of averages is finally catching up to Rivers. He’s played brilliantly with an almost permanently injured/holding-out receiving corps for three years, but the key has usually been that either Gates or V-Jax was out. This season, both have missed games together and both have been hobbled even when on the field, and Malcolm Floyd has been out.
The only thing about the Eagles that scares me this week is their Corners/Nickelback. That said, I’m absolutely petrified of them. I can see a scenario where Philly goes completely Man-to-Man with press coverage and Cutler spends his entire day either slinging the ball into coverage, eating it or airmailing it to the sidelines. Our WRs are not very good, are especially not very good facing the press and are undersized. The Eagles CBs are big, strong and great in man coverage. Forte is going to have to have a huge day to loosen that up and Martz is going to have to have one of those games where he undresses the opposing DC. He hasn’t had many of them, but the Eagles are a candidate for it with their troubles this season and a OL coach as the DC.
That said, I’m not going to be laying money on the Bears this week. I think we could create one of those 4 TO games for Vick, but Cutler could match it. I think Cutler has really learned to avoid those and it’s more likely that he’ll take sacks/check down and punt if nothing is open, but that’s not going to win games because Vick and McCoy will move the chains all day long. We’ll see what happens in the Redzone.
Not sure how many of you are following Grantland regularly, but this afternoon Bill Barnwell posted a NFC mid-season breakdown. Here’s what he had to say about the NFC Central.
It’s not partularly insightful or in-depth, but I agreed with pretty much all of it. It might be an interesting read.
Yeah, somebody got paid for that?