My prediction was 9-7 before the season, and I’m amending it to 10-6. The difference is next week’s game in Minnesota. McNabb just looks done to me, and Sidney Rice is still out (right?). I think the Lions’ upgraded linebackers can contain AP (as in he won’t get 200 yards and 3 touchdowns - he’ll still score) and I don’t think the Viking defense can stop a healthy Lions’ offense.
I see wins against Minnesota at MoA Field (3), Chicago (4), San Fran at Ford Field (5), @Denver (6), Carolina (7), hopefully against the Pack on Thanksgiving (8), The Vikings again (9), and @Oakland (10).
I’m about 50% on that Thanksgiving game right now, but if I call that a loss then I’d still stick with 10-6 with a win against San Diego in Detroit. I mean, doesn’t SD always collapse in December?
The NFC North begin their intradivisional games this weekend, with the Packers going to Chicago to play the Bears and the Lions travel to Minnie to take on the Lions. These are huge games for the Bears and Vikings, the Vikings need to avoid starting 0-3 and the Bears need to figure out if they’re the team that beat the tough Falcons, or the team that got their asses handed to them by the Saints. In both games, the road team is the favorite. Let’s take a closer look:
Packers v. Bears
Always an interesting game.
Packers on offense:
The Bears defense often give the Packers and Aaron Rodgers fits. Beating the Bears Cover 2 requires patience, taking what they give you, and avoiding mistakes. When the Bears beat the Packers by 3 last year, Aaron Rodgers threw a pick, James Jones fumbled in crunch time, and the Packers were called for a franchise record 18 penalties. If the Packers can minimize those kinds of mistakes, they’ll win easily. The Bears defense is still strong, but can be beat deep, as the Saints showed last week. The biggest individual battle is going to be Julius Peppers v. Chad Clifton. If Peppers can beat Clifton repeatedly (which very well may happen given how Chad’s started this season), it could be a long day for Rodgers. But if they can contain Peppers like last year, the Packers will look good. I really like the talk I’m hearing from Packers coaches and players this week, so hopefully they can live up to those words.
Bears on offense:
The Packers pass defense has been horrid so far this year, ranking 32nd out of 32 teams in passing yards, and now have lost their Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins for the year. Bad, bad news. The good news for the Packers is that Tramon Williams, their Pro Bowl CB, is back practicing after missing last week, and that the Bears can’t seem to protect Jay Cutler. The Bears O Line is atrocious, and now without their first round rookie Gabe Carimi.
It will be fascinating to see the Bears’ play calling in this game. After Martz being reigned in last year after the bye week and last weeks joke of a game at the Saints, you would think that they would be more conservative this week. But the Packer’s secondary is vulnerable to flinging the ball around like Martz likes to do. It should be fascinating to see. Two things that will be critical, I think, is the screen game and the need to blitz. The Saints showed the blueprint for whuppin the Bears offense, blitz and pick up the screen game. Even better, if the Packers can get pressure without having to blitz, it could be a long day for Cutler. I’m looking for Clay Matthews to break out of his pass rushing funk and get at least a couple sacks. If Cutler can throw to his hot receiver (without getting him killed like Earl Bennett) successfully, and/or they get enough protection to the let Cutler throw the ball, the Bears could find success, though.
The biggest question is which Bears team will show up, the Week One Bears or the Week Two Bears. If it’s the former, the Packers win a close one, if it’s the latter, it’ll be a walk. Although Soldier field is a tough place to play, I like the Packers chances this weekend.
Lions v. Vikings
The Lions are roaring and the Vikings are collapsing. At least that’s how the first two weeks went. Despite that, I’m actually going to go out on a limb here and pick the Vikings to upset the Lions. The Vikings have looked good in the first halves of their games, but tend to really fall off in the second half. But they’re still a proud, talented team, and I think Antoine Winfield may be able to contain (you can’t stop him) Megatron enough to avoid the blowout. If the Lions have to rely on running the ball, the Vikings may be able to pull off the win. The Lions defensive front is downright scary, which has helped them be the #2 defense in opposing QB passer rating. Of course they got fat against Matt Cassell, so it may not be a good indication. Worse for the Lions, they’re giving up 4.6 yards per carry on the ground. If the Vikings can get that ground game going, and McNabb can avoid mistakes, I think the Vikings have a good shot to stop the Detroit juggernaut. The Vikings will need to play a complete game to get the win, and that’s not easy against Matthew Stafford and Ndamukong Suh. This game will tell us a lot about the Vikings, because if they fold again, there could be trouble in Minnesota.
The one thing I’m interested in seeing for the Vikings is how the defense shapes up with the return of Kevin Williams. The D had two decent first halves without him. In both games one third down conversion changed to a stop could have given the Vikings a win. It’s not a stretch to think that Williams could have given it to them. Of course, it’s a tough opponent. Although the Lions haven’t won in Minneapolis since before Clinton’s impeachment. I pick the Vikings to win a squeaker 51-0.
Well, I said back in the preseason prediction thread that I’d consider it a victory if the Bears are able to go 1-2 over the first 3 games. I penciled us in for 9 wins if we lost all 3 of these opening games. Getting a divisional win at home is always crucial and beating the Packers is always at the top of the list of goals for the season, but that opening day win over the Falcons takes a lot of the pressure off. The stinker in New Orleans put some pressure back on simply because it was so ugly at the end, but if you’d have told me we’d win at home and lose on the road in our opening 2 games I’d have been really happy considering the opponents.
Gotta beat the Packers, but it’s a long ways from a make or break game.
I’m normally pretty confident on this side of the ball against the Packers. For some reason Rodgers is human against us and turnovers tend to come easily. But, the Falcons put up a lot of yards, albeit meaningless ones, and the Saints threw the ball at will. It’s possible that the Saints offense and Brees are just that sharp right now, they did gash the shit out of the Packers too, and it’s not something to read too much into. I’m not sure how I feel, but the injuries at Safety are really worrisome. We should get Chris Harris back and start him alongside Merriweather, but Wright will be out and Steltz and Conte were banged up a bit last week. This is a young and shaky group, Merriweather needs to put together a great game this weekend to stabilize the position.
Peppers needs to have another big game for sure, but the engine that drives this defense will be the interior of the pass rush. Melton was great in week 1, but the Saints awesome interior line stifled him. Okoye was better last week than Melton, but not by much. The under tackles played the run well last week and will need to make the Packers one dimensional. This week the Bears need to win the battle against Sitton and Lang, Lang’s young and inexperienced and could be the weak spot. We’ll definitely be the best pass rush he’s faced yet. Sitton and Wells are excellent and will hold their own, but Lang is going against the 3 technique and needs to be abused. I think Bulaga is overrated too, so Izzy Idonije could also step up and Peppers will rotate to his side as well. Long story short, we need to beat this group and I think we should.
Martz has brain damage. I’m hoping that he learned his lesson last week. Last season it took until the bye in week 8 before he finally got the message about the playcalling. The Week 4 drubbing Cutler took against the Giants didn’t get the message home, hopefully we don’t need to wait 6 more weeks for him to get a clue. You know the line about insanity and doing the same thing. We’ll see.
The Bears will be able to pass at will against the Packers if Cutler gets time. That’s a huge if of course, but they should be able to move the ball. I dislike the idea of going without Bennett, he’s too important on short yardage and I think having him out of the lineup could lead to Cutler holding the ball longer looking downfield. Sanzenbacher has gotten a ton of publicity, and he’s been a nice addition, but some of the local media and fans are going overboard with him. He’s slow and doesn’t offer much of anything after the catch. He can run those quick underneath routes, but he’s not a threat. He’s smaller than Bennett and can be mugged at the line. I like him as a 4th option, as a 3rd option he’s a liability. Supposedly Williams will be back along with Barber. Both of these guys need to live up to the preseason hype. Williams can have a big game against the Packers and draw a lot of attention from Woodson and make the Packers think twice about coming off the corner. Barber, assuming Martz actually opens the playbook to those running plays, will be a critical component of a balanced attack. Forte was awesome last week in a losing effort, but we need Barber to lessen the load and give us a between the tackles option versus the 3-4. If you can run on a 3-4 it tends to crumble quickly.
FYI, the Saints did a terrible job of slowing the screen game. Forte had an absolute monster game on those plays. That’s why we were right in that game until the middle of the 3rd. Unfortunately the playcalling went away from it.
Lions v. Vikings
The Lions are roaring and the Vikings are collapsing. At least that’s how the first two weeks went. Despite that, I’m actually going to go out on a limb here and pick the Vikings to upset the Lions. The Vikings have looked good in the first halves of their games, but tend to really fall off in the second half. But they’re still a proud, talented team, and I think Antoine Winfield may be able to contain (you can’t stop him) Megatron enough to avoid the blowout. If the Lions have to rely on running the ball, the Vikings may be able to pull off the win. The Lions defensive front is downright scary, which has helped them be the #2 defense in opposing QB passer rating. Of course they got fat against Matt Cassell, so it may not be a good indication. Worse for the Lions, they’re giving up 4.6 yards per carry on the ground. If the Vikings can get that ground game going, and McNabb can avoid mistakes, I think the Vikings have a good shot to stop the Detroit juggernaut. The Vikings will need to play a complete game to get the win, and that’s not easy against Matthew Stafford and Ndamukong Suh. This game will tell us a lot about the Vikings, because if they fold again, there could be trouble in Minnesota.
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I agree that this game could be closer than people are allowing but it’s not because the Vikings are simply hard luck losers. The Vikes are an old, slow defense and the offensive line has major issues. McNabb is a garbage fire and the Lions pass rush will gobble him up. I might worry a little if the Vikings had anything going at WR since the Lions secondary is still somewhat shaky, but they’ll match up fine with this group. Unfortunately for Percy Harvin McNabb can’t take advantage of his speed because of accuracy issues and happy feet.
The point I agree with is ADP. The guy could explode for a 200 yard day against that run defense. The Lions tackle poorly and their linebackers are pretty iffy. Suh is a great pass rusher but he gets pushed around in the run game, as does Avril. The Vikings need this to be an old school Black and Blue game, but in the end I think Matt Stafford is going to be good enough to ensure that they Vikings are playing from behind. They don’t have the discipline to keep pounding the rock when down, McNabb might end up with a Cutler like beating if they get down double digits at any point.
You’re just now figuring that out? And what is this “conventional wisdom?” Tice sucks; he sucks long and hard. Good riddance.
I’m a Vikings fan, but this year is going to be long, I fear. And I just can’t rustle up the hate for the other teams in the league - honestly, I kind of like all the North, except when we’re playing them. So, sorry I can’t provide Dio-level entertainment either.
I think the Vikes are going to get torched Sunday.
This is true for 90% of the quarterbacks in the NFL. Give them enough time and they’ll be able to pass the ball at will. The question is what is “enough” time. For a QB in Martz’s offense, that “enough” is a lot, as is the amount of pounding that QB will take.
Watching part of the Bears game last week, I was reminded of Aaron Rodgers ala 2-3 years ago. He too would hold onto the ball too long and take too many sacks. Rodgers (along with some different playcalling by McCarthy) was able to take care of that and cover up some holes on the O Line. We will see if Cutler can do the same. But even if he doesn’t, I’m sure there will be excuses made for him.
I don’t consider dump offs past the line of scrimmage to be “screen plays”. It will be interesting to see how the Packers play Forte in this game. I have no problem if they let him get his yardage and hold them to field goals all day.
I just watched Denard Robinson of Michigan again. Is there a spot for him in the NFL?. He can run through gaps like few others and he has great acceleration. But he is not a pro QB. Too small for DB. If he could run in NFL, he should have been moved to a running back position. But he has been out of position for 3 years now.
The Packers, once again, go into Chicago and beat the Bears. I think the coaching staffs made a huge difference in this game. Mike McCarthy put together a great gameplan to take advantage of the middle of the field and expose some weaknesses in the Cover 2. He got nice matchups with Jermichael Finley and was able to run between the tackles with Ryan Grant, who had a great game. On the defensive side of the ball, Capers, once again, had to make due with injuries to key players (Peprah didn’t have a good game) and did a pretty good job, even going to the Okie with Woodson as a safety. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen more and more this year. He also made some nice adjustments by actually not blitzing and dropping 8 in coverage, which made Cutler have to be more accurate, which he wasn’t.
For the Bears, Lovie’s D did what Lovie’s D does, limit the big plays and take advantage of mistakes. They got a very nice interception by Urlacher and a nice tackle for loss strip by Briggs, but had problems with Finley in the red zone. And Martz. I’m actually kinda torn on him in this game because it clearly wasn’t his fault that Cutler threw those interceptions, the WR dropped passes, and that the O Line couldn’t run block. I actually thought he called a pretty good game and the O line by and large did a good job in pass protection. I don’t know why Bears fans would want more running plays called when Forte couldn’t even average 1 ypc. I don’t blame Martz for their inconsistency yesterday, I think it was on the players who didn’t execute and made mistakes.
A few other thoughts:
The Punt Return - awesome play. Fantastic. It would only work once, but boy did it work. A thing of beauty. Great play. Genius. Corey Graham’s comments on the holding call: “It was an inside release (by the Green Bay gunner),” Graham said. “I grabbed him a little bit. Gave him a bit of a shove. We were probably 30 yards away from Johnny. It was not a blatant holding, but I guess it was too much."
Officiating - I didn’t see the roughing the passer penalty that brought back one of Cutler’s interceptions, so I’d love to hear whether you guys thought about it. I did see Peppers shoulder being out of bounds before he controlled the ball though, and Graham’s own comments indicate there was, at least, some basis for the holding call. I likely would have let it go, but blaming the refs is unseemly.
Soldier Field - sometimes the Bears franchise is a fucking joke and the state of their home field is one of those. Having to stop the game to deal with the field is something that should never happen to a big league NFL team.
Blowouts - the Packers are clearly the better team yesterday and they outplayed the Bears, but they need to make those games blowouts. Starks’ fumble (please keep Ryan Grant as your #1 back Mike!), Urlachers’ interception (nice play Brian!), and problems in the secondary kept the Bears sniffing around way too long. It’s good to get the win, but they need to put teams away.
Future: The Packers look like a very good team that should win, even on the road, if they don’t beat themselves. They get Denver next week in what should be another win. But the Lions look like a force to be reckoned with, which is scary. The Bears offense seems to have fallen into chaos, and I enjoy watching that team deal with adversity. Still, the toughest part of their schedule is done, and they get the Panthers at home next week to gain a little confidence back, so don’t count them out yet. But do enjoy the pain of their fanhood.
Can someone who watches the Vikings games explain what is going on with them?
First half of games: outscore the opponents 54-7 (that TD due to McNabb intercept at his 10)
Second half: outscored by opponents 67-6.
Do they make no adjustments? Do they expect the other team to make no adjustments? Do they get tired? Does play calling change? Does McNabb act like he has to pass all of the time? I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this before. Insights appreciated, as I’m stuck watching the New Jersey teams out here.
The problem is that the Vikings are making adjustments, when they shouldn’t. AP is rushing for 70+ yards in the first half of every game and then getting 5 carries in the second halves.
He has 58 carries through 3 games despite the Vikings never being down by more than one score in any game.
It wasn’t really a play-calling issue in Week 1; there were no carries to give Peterson in the second half because the Vikings couldn’t complete any passes. In Week 2, though, Peterson steamrolled the Bucs in the first half, and then got 5-6 carries in the second half. There was absolutely no reason for the Vikings to throw, but they did it anyway.
Looks like the Lions game went the same way - McNabb had 36 attempts even though the Vikings led the whole game.
I can’t decide if McCarthy is an excellent playcaller or if Rodgers is just so awesome that it wouldn’t matter who was calling the plays. Rodgers has a knack for completing passes to players that are by all definitions well covered. There were at least 4 occasions where Jennings and Finley were blanketed with an inside trail position and Rodger’s pass slipped just under or past a Bears defenders hands. 95% of QBs get that ball knocked down, and Rodger seems to do it on 3rd down almost exclusively.
Also, I’m not sure that McCarthy so much as got matchups with Finely as the Bears were just gutted at an already shaky safety position. Without Chris Harris and Major Wright and starting Merriweather who’s still learning the system meant that there were a lot of openings for Finley where he shouldn’t have been. Plus, injuries dictated that Finley had to be covered by Steltz often and that’s a death sentence for us. Yeah, McCarthy recognized it and Rodgers got the ball there, but with a TE as talented as Finley any offense would have made that adjustment, it was pretty easy to see coming.
Cutler certainly helped that defense out a lot. As did Knox and Williams.
Agreed somewhat on Martz. He did find some big holes in that coverage. On the first pick Cutler badly under threw that ball on what should have been an easy catch and possible TD for Williams. He had Hester wide open on a bomb before Woodson ran him over. He had Knox for a few wide open routes downfield which he dropped when he heard footsteps. There looked to be a few other big plays out there that Jay flat out missed too, when a WR looked wide open and Cutler reacted to pressure that wasn’t there and ended up missing his window or chucking it out of bounds.
Cutler simply looked like he was shell-shocked from last week. The Bears pass protected shockingly well. Not sure how good this Packers pass rush is, but the Bears pretty much stoned it. There was one badly blown assignment by Williams when Cutler got steamrolled, but I think nearly every other sack and pressure was a result of Cutler holding onto the ball way too long. There were times when he had an eternity in the pocket and still never set his feet and stepped into a throw.
The defense was as expected and they turned it up late in the game when they needed to. Give them tons of credit, they made some mistakes at the safety positions due to injury and inexperience, but the front 7 and CBs all played out of their heads. Holding the Packers to 27 points with so little offense, poor field position and nearly a 2 to 1 ToP differential is a major accomplishment.
I’m not sure you can completely abandon the run regardless of how ineffective it is, so that’s still a black mark on Martz. This offensive line without Carimi and Louis is terrible at run blocking. Chris Williams is turning into a garbage fire out there. They clearly missed Barber again as well, what the fuck is up with this guy? Anyways, the Bears gave up too many 3 and outs and lost the ToP badly because of it, running the ball would have at least kept the Packers honest. Additionally, the Bears didn’t run a single screen pass or check down to Forte on a swing. Even if you don’t run the ball you need to get Forte involved and get high percentage plays to set up 3rd and shorts. Martz’s passing scheme obviously can work, but his game management still sucks dick.
I heard that comment, but it’s still a horrific abortion of a call. The ref threw the flag from the 5 yard line well after Graham lost contact with the gunner. Graham wasn’t within 15 yards of anyone. Graham commented on the contact at the line of scrimmage, the flag came WAY after that and wasn’t thrown by the line judge closest to the play. It’s a fucking mystery and it ruined what should have been the signature play of the season thus far.
I’m sure you’ll take this with a grain of salt, but it was a pretty indisputable call. Clay Matthews had Cutler around the legs after the ball was loosed. The opposite LB, can’t remember his name, came from the opposite side and launched his shoulder pad into Cutler’s head. It was pretty ugly. It was late and he launched into the QBs head. Could have been flagged for either.
The Peppers play was close but I think it’s fair to say that at worst the evidence was insufficient to overturn it. I think he corralled it before he got to the line, but obviously I’m biased.
That Hester play was probably the most infuriating though. It would have changed the game and if Woodson didn’t interfere with him then there’s a serious issue with the rules. This wasn’t some incidental tangling of the feet, he got beat and responded by running right into him. It had me Dio level apoplectic.
It’s the Chicago Park District not the Bears. Embarrassing nonetheless.
Could have been a Packers blowout, but it also could have been a Bears win or at least a last second game. If those two huge calls go the other way, Hester & punt return, it’s a 14 point swing. Also, if Knox catches one of those 2 easy catches it’s still probably a much different outcome. Ifs and Buts. The Bears have some serious problems and it still was pretty close, the Packers better not get full of themselves.
Gotta beat the Panthers for sure, a huge game with the Lions follows that. If we head to the bye 3-2 I’ll count that as a big positive.
The Lions changed their summer work out schedule. They eliminated the 2 a days during the hot weather. The theory is they would get more stamina during the season. I don’t know if that matters, but the old guard is obdurate when it comes to change.
Oh, and while I’m bitching, it’s a joke that Hester got a 15 yard penalty flag on that slap fest with Shields and he got nothing. Shields pooped him twice right in front of the ref which he ignored, Hester made the last one. I know they always say that the second guy always gets the flag, but that usually assumes that the refs didn’t see the first one. This ref watched the entire thing from about 3 feet away like a boxing ref.
