(If this should be in Cafe Society, then please move it)
I just saw the trailer for the documentary How to Survive a Plague. IMHO, they might as well just give the film the Documentary Feature Oscar now, as it seems to have the two main themes that lead to Oscar success; it’s pro-AIDS Community and anti-Republicans/big corporations.
Moved MPSIMS --> Cafe Society.
Beasts of the Southern Wild is likely to get a nomination. Fact-based, globally-aware political undertones? Check. Cute kid, but not your standard McCauley Culkin type? Check. “Independent” feel, but not too “independent”? Check.
Wow - this is going to lower that huge demographic of homophobic, Tea-Party members who avidly tune into the Oscar telecast every year.
John Hawkes is almost a sure thing for The Sessions. He got amazing reviews out of Sundance, when it was titled The Surrogate. Helen Hunt also has a very good shot for the same movie.
For other movies that haven’t been released yet (even if some people have seen them), I’d put money on Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams (The Master), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), and Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained). I also have a feeling that Ben Affleck’s Argo could be a big player.
Leo could get double-nominated this year. Best Actor for Gatsby and Supporting for Django Unchained.
I also expect at least two supporting actor, and at least one supporting actress nod to come from “Lincoln.” That cast is stacked.
The Great Gatsby was bumped to summer of 2013.
Sorry, the anti-AIDS Community and pro-Republican/big corporation documentaries just aren’t as good.
As it stands now, there haven’t even been enough good flicks, let alone outstanding ones, to fill the 2012 nomination slate. I mean this year has been shite (with a very few exceptions).
I’ve seen a number of good movies this year. My favorites are:
Moonrise Kingdom
ParaNorman
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Five-Year Engagement
The Kid with a Bike
The Secret World of Arrietty (although that’s not eligible for the Oscars).
I also like-to-really-like:
Damsels in Distress
Your Sister’s Sister
Brave
The Snowtown Murders
The Dark Knight Rises
Friends with Kids
The Queen of Versailles
Safety Not Guaranteed
I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of these dropped off my favorites list by the end of the year, but there’s been a pretty decent amount of good stuff out there.
In your opinion, of course. I’ve seen 270 movies so far this year and there have been a lot of good to great ones. Rollo provided a good list, though I haven’t seen them all, and there’s plenty more where those came from.
As always, it’s been a great year, but the great films are not always accessible to everyone, which is a shame.
I didn’t much care for Beast of the Southern Wild but I certainly agree about the child. She may well become the youngest actor to be nominated for an Oscar.
Yes indeed.
I missed the Five Year Engagement. I didn’t have anything against it, but it was extremely low priority. I should have seen it, huh? The Snowtown Murders was one I was looking forward to seeing, very high on my list, but it played for about 2 seconds in a dank, expensive theater I avoid whenever possible. I’m still sorry I missed it. I didn’t see Friends With Kids. No real reason, it was just low priority. I actively avoided The Queen of Versailles, with much prejudice. I almost saw it just because I was puzzled by the acclaim it received, but I couldn’t afford it at the time, which seemed weirdly karmic. I’ll regret not seeing it if the damned thing gets nominated for an Oscar. I didn’t much care for Beasts, Brave or Dark Knight but I understand why others liked them. It was my problem with each, not the movies. I liked-to-loved the rest, especially Moonrise Kingdom and Safety Not Guaranteed.
You need to see Bernie!
Haven’t seen much this year, and most of it has been in typical B/C territory. I loved Cosmopolis, but I have no Academy hope for that. The Grey was fantastic, but much too tough for the Oscars as well. (Although I have hope Liam Neeson grabs a few year-end nominations.) Brave was good, if a bit fidgety, but I loved the mother/daughter stuff.
Beasts? Eh, but I want to give it another try. Dark Knight Rises and Spider-Man? Eh. ParaNorman got raves, but I don’t get it.
Lincoln and Les Miserables have de facto front-runner status, and Life of Pi is sure to garner technical nods up the wazoo. I’ve got my eye on Perks of Being a Wallflower as a sleeper; they rarely go for teen movies (witness how Martha Marcy May Marlene went over like a dead fish with them–Juno was an extreme exception), but it’s got low expectations and good buzz that might let it take a Slumdog Millionaire type journey.
Any chance of a Mark Ruffalo Supporting nod for Avengers? Well-received megahits usually get some love, Ruffalo has been on the critics’ radar for some time, and he delivered the film’s standout performance.
It’s actually next on my Netflix queue. It played for a while in my local indie theater, but life kept getting in the way.
The Snowtown Murders is worth seeing just for the stellar lead performance by a guy named Daniel Henshall, a new face to me. Ultimately, I don’t know if I found the movie all that illuminating in terms of explaining or portraying the murders or perpetrators, but it’s a well-done movie that shows a lot of promise for the director’s next project.
I think The Five-Year Engagement is the most underrated movie I’ve seen so far this year. It’s a romantic comedy that’s actually romantic and comedic, and the two main characters are well drawn and realistic, not just the shrieking harpy and slovenly man-boy that seem to be all the rage in romcoms these days. In terms of other studio comedies, it makes me so sad that Ted and The Dictator made more money 
.
Alessan, I don’t see Mark Ruffalo happening. Something like Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight is far, far the exception more than the rule, and Ruffalo probably isn’t going to make enough of an impression on voters.
Speaking of Perks of Being a Wallflower, I’d love to see Mae Whitman get a nomination at some point.
I believe that to get an Oscar nom, you have to get an Oscar nom. If that makes any sense at all. It’s like the Emmy’s - once an actor or show has been nominated, you can guarantee it will receive more nominations for as long as it goes.
I had to look up Mae Whitman. The only things I’ve seen that she’s been in are Independence Day and Nights in Rodanthe, but I don’t remember her in either. Looking at the list, she hasn’t yet been in anything that would get her Oscar attention, but she’s young and I’m sure we’ll see a lot of her. I’ll pay attention when I see Perks to notice her specifically.
Lots of first-timers get nominated every year.
Frank Langella - Best Actor. If I’m near Vegas, I’m down for $100.
A nomination is possible, but unlikely. Robot & Frank is too small and little-seen.
I’d bet money on Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. A nomination is pretty much a lock. Not too much for the win though, only because he won fairly recently for There Will Be Blood. Still, Daniel Day-Lewis. As Abraham Lincoln. In a Steven Spielberg film. How will he not be brilliant?
Some other possible contenders for nominations are
Joaquin Phoenix in The Master
John Hawkes in The Sessions
Bill Murray in Hyde Park on Hudson
Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook (I don’t know about this, but there is buzz)
Denzel Washington for Flight
There are others but those are the big buzzy names.
Personally, I would love to be able to add Jack Black for Bernie and to a lesser extent Robert Pattinson for Cosmopolis, but neither will get the attention they deserve for these great HOLY SHIT, THEY CAN ACT!! roles.
Oh and, this will blow the OP’s mind, one of the leading contenders for Best Documentary is The Central Park Five, by Ken Burns and his daughter Sarah. It tells the story of the five black and Latino youths who were coerced into confessing to the rape and beating of a woman jogging in Central Park in 1989. For those of us older than dirt and will remember, this was known as The Central Park Jogger case. There was no “wilding” gang of toughs, there was only one guy, a guy who had nothing to do with the kids who were arrested, a guy whose DNA matched and who confessed in 2002.
I haven’t seen the movie yet but those who have say it’s a searing, damning indictment on the shoddy law enforcement, prosecution and publicity surrounding the case.