2013 NFL Draft Order

I am a Skins fan and I love RGIII, but I still think the trade with St. Louis was a mistake. The draft is virtually the only place you can ever find surplus value (the most vital consideration in a salary cap regime), and we keep giving up those opportunities.

Imagine the other world where Browns traded to get RGIII. He still probably lights it up for them, but they still miss the playoffs. Those guys are horrible.

Almost all starting caliber QBs are first rounders. The likelihood of finding a franchise, difference making QB anywhere but the first round is practically nil. Everyone else in the league will be taking those guys in the first round so that’s where their are valued, supply/demand and all. Their volatility doesn’t matter.

Certainly there’s a ton of reward to finding a gem in the back of the draft or off the scrap heap, but that prospect is even more unpredictable than picking first rounders. You simply cannot plan for that at all, it’s just like pulling a trump card. Good teams draft mid-round QBs in a position of strength due to the potential value of it, but you’re a frigging idiot if you do that when you have a gaping hole at QB.

Another thought I’m toying with:

One of the biggest problems, which we saw once again happen with RGIII, with using a college type offense with zone reads and a running QB, is that it puts the player at the most valuable position in too much risk of taking a massive amounts of hits. When teams invest that much into the QB position, you can’t have the guy taking so many hits a game or season.

So, what if we adjust the value of the QB like they have with RB’s and consider them more and more replaceable and run those college offenses. College football is producing more and more talented running QB’s, so their cost is going to be lower, and a team could replace them easier in case of injury.

One huge problem is that to do this you have to have complete faith in the system. It’s really tough in the NFL to run two disparate kinds of offenses for two different QB’s, so the commitment to the system must be pretty complete. And by doing it, you’re decreasing the commitment to one QB, so you’ll likely be stuck with a couple pretty good QB’s, but likely not elite. But if you have little to lose, and need to put buts in the seats, it might be an intriguing thing to do.

Actually, if two teams have the same record and the same strength of schedule, and they are in the same conference but not the same division, the “conference tiebreaker” (used to determine wild card teams and home field advantage where necessary) is used. The Jets do get the #9 because the first conference tiebreaker is head-to-head and they lost to the Titans this season.

Why are the Ravens listed below the Colts and Seahawks? Also, the list apparently doesn’t include the Redskins-Cowboys game on 12/30.

The rules for determining draft order for playoff teams were changed recently (starting with 2012, I think); Wild Card round losers draft first, followed by “second round” losers, followed by conference championship game losers, followed by the Super Bowl loser and then the Super Bowl winner; I am not 100% sure about this, but “apparently,” within each group, order is based on regular season record, followed by regular season strength of schedule, then division/conference tiebreaker if applicable, then coin toss.
After the Wild Card round, the next 4 teams are:
21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) .438
22. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) (10-6) .494
23. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) .520
24. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

The remaining teams (note the records do not include the Wild Card round wins; it isn’t clear if playoff games are included when determining a team’s record for draft order purposes - I know strength of schedule does not)

Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) .504
Green Bay Packers (11-5) .508
San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
Houston Texans (12-4) .496
New England Patriots (12-4) .496
Atlanta Falcons (13-3) .422
Denver Broncos (13-3) .457

Note that Houston and New England are tied in both regular season record and strength of schedule, but no tiebreaker is needed as the loser of their upcoming playoff game will draft before the winner.

The first major Mock Draft is up on NFL.com.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/mock-drafts

Lots of variation at the top with no clear blue chippers. Also this draft is off the charts when it comes to the All-Name Team.

Two of those mocks have Te’o falling to the Bears at 20.

Do it, Emery. Do it.

And speaking of the All-Name team, Key & Peele had a take on that.

I’d like to know how anyone can project what the Eagles might do without a head coach in place. I guess that explains why there are four different players at four different positions listed.

I think Joeckel to KC at #1 is a lock, even now. That’s a very Andy Reid move, especially with a OT spot opening up for them and no superstar QB on the list.

Yes. Please.

Yeah, maybe in the late(r) first or early second.

I liked Geno Smith in college and its great for him if he goes in the first, but I would be surprised if anybody thought about that during his career. I guess with a rookie wage scale it is not a huge deal anymore to over reach anymore.

Fuck no, not after being exposed in the BCS.

The Bears should go OT/OG or maybe TE if the OL spots get gutted.

Early and often. People like to think of football as the ultimate team sport, so I think they deliberately devalue the importance of QB play. It runs up against what we want football to be. But the reality is that in the current NFL, under the current rules, the QB is the most critical position by a huge margin. Having a shitty team built around a good QB gives you a chance. Having a great team around a shitty QB means you’ll always struggle to get anywhere.

Teams are pretty much always justified in taking a guy they like in the first round. That is to say, a guy they feel could become an above average quarterback. Now if they start drafting guys that are really poor prospects in the first round, that’s bad scouting and desperation, but you can never really say that a QB that you project well into the NFL isn’t worth it.

And at the pace QBs have shown competance in their first year in the league recently, if your QB doesn’t show anything in his first year, or he looks like a Gabbert style steaming shitpile, then draft another one in the first round next year. Hell, draft one in the later rounds too who you think has high upside.

We’ve got so many examples where a good team wastes a lot of years because they half-assed their QB search. If you actually hit on a great QB, then I think he’s worth more than any 3 other great players. Possibly 4, or even 5, depending on the overall context.

Weird, they stole part of that. L’Carpettron Dookmariot was my porn name.

I highly doubt the Cards will go defense, especially with such a tragic year on offense. The Cards’ defense was awesome this year, and would have been een better if they didn’t spend so much time on the field.

As for QB, is Kolb done? He played pretty well (finally) before getting hurt, didn’t he? If they don’t get a QB, I hope they trade Fitzgerald to the Steelers for Mike Wallace. Please? :smiley:

I think the Rams got the better of the trade, and as the years pass,mthe trade will be even better for them. RGIII did surprise me this year, because I never expected him to stay healthy for th most part. Wait a couple of years, when the hits start taking their toll! and he starts to slow down because of his legs. It is a formula that seems to have cursed all the great running QB’s. If he survives, I’ll eat my words, but I don’t think the Redskins win a SB with RGIII at QB. Look at this years play-offs. Three of the four teams have the prototypical statue at QB, and the 49ers hace a guy who has fresh legs and didn’t play but a handful of games. Sure the 49ers could win… It’s just not a formula that works well long term.

The Steelers will take a QB in this draft, but not in the first. Clearly they need someone that can play backup that doesn’t break their own ribs while running for a touchdown, or can throw a square out pattern more than 15 yards. I don’t know if the have a QB on their practice squad, but if they do, look for him to move to the team…either that, or the Steelers reach out to a retread QB that may be floating around this offseason. There is always a few.

I think the Steelers must get a slam dunk bowling ball of a running back (one that doesn’t fumble, of course) if one is available in the first round. Otherwise, they need to improve their defensive line and terrible pass rush at once. Don’t think Aaron Smith was missed? He was almost invisible because of injuries the last few years, but when healthy, he was a great player. Troy is getting long in the tooth also. I hate to say it, but he might be one or two concussions away from retirement.

I am really surprised that one of those guys does not have Jonathan Banks in the first round at all, and the other three have him at 12, 17, and 28. I watched a lot of Mississippi State this year, and Banks is a great talent. I think he should go in the top 15, at least…maybe in the top 10.

I should perhaps have been a bit more clear. I don’t see an OLB being selected by the Cards in the 1st Round but they could well go for one in the 2nd or 3rd dependent on the talent level available and the situation they find themselves in. Whilst they did manage to somehow stick together the 6th ranked defense by DVOA, the Cards OLBs are a touch injury prone and don’t get the greatest of pressure, which tends to come from the likes of Calais Campbell on the line. With their first round pick, they’ve got to go with the offense.

Kolb is an interesting question: he’s owed $11m next year and all the guaranteed money has come off his contract. He did OK when he played (the shit show that followed him when he went out injured made him look better than I think he actually was) but I don’t think he’s worth that money. I can see him being cut or his contract being restructured.

Having thought about it for a couple of weeks, I would see if they could restructure his contract and then go with the OL for the first pick (and potentially the 2nd rounder too), in an effort to see what Kolb looks like if he is kept vertical for a bit. I’m not convinced that there is a long term, good QB in this draft. There is a hole in the run game too to be honest - a viable running attack would likely help the Cards substantially - but fixing the line has to be the number one priority. If the offense still sucks with reasonable players in position on the line, then they should cut Kolb and look for a QB then.

Re: Fitzgerald. I have said before that I would trade him - but his cap figure is enormous and, whilst still a great player, he is getting older. I think they need to get a first rounder for him in any trade, so that they can continue to repair the large holes that they have in the offense but I don’t know where they get that from (some GM that doesn’t know what he’s doing likely - but as Fitz has a trade veto in his contract, the chances of him being traded to a team he wants to go to - i.e. one that could win a ring - and them having a GM that will willingly give up a 1st rounder and probably something else in a trade for him plus take the cap hit that comes with Fitzgerald, are pretty small indeed I would have thought).

As far as the first round goes, my gut tells me RB or ILB. In the last 4 drafts the Steelers have taken 2 D-linemen, Ziggy Hood and Cameron Heyward. I think Ziggy is panning out to be just a guy, nothing special and it is too soon to tell about Heyward. Unless someone of extraodinary talent drops, I doubt they take another D-linemen. There are too many other holes to fill. Safety is another position they could take in the first.
As far as Smith, Polamalu, Harrison… These guys are all obviously irreplacable. The Steelers are transitioning out of a truly great era of world class talent. They could draft first round for a long time and not replace Smith.
As far as QB, the Steelers need to give up on Batch and Leftwich all together. These guys are made of glass and don’t really bring much to the table except intangibles. Hell, I would take Tebow as a fulltime FB and let him take snaps if Ben goes down. I actually wish Dennis Dixon would have stuck around, maybe he would come back. Anyways, there are alot of guys you can pick up late in the draft or floating around the league to be had as a back ups. But I will be shocked if Ben ever plays a full season again.

Weirdly the Steelers might be the only team in the league were Tebow as a backup QB makes any sense at all.

Strange Manti Teo story.

Agrhh! lost a good long well thought out post about the Lions. Well I’m not going to rewrite it, so here it is in the powerpoint version.

• Need CB(repeat chorus), But Milliner not worth second pick.
• I don’t trust Lions to trade down to still get Milliner, they would probably end up giving up a pick to trade down and still miss him.
• many projections say DE. Which isn’t horrible. Vanden Bosch falling off the age cliff really hurt them.
• Surprised to see Avril had 9.5 sacks I don’t remember any real impact from him all year, and was ready to sidewalk the bum. But 9.5 isn’t horrible, even with people around sucking up the double teams. If his long term number is more reasonable than last summer I don’t mind signing it, but not worth another 10M+ designation, which would make 1st round DE a good idea.
• Unless there is enough talent in DE you can get an impact player in early second round.
• But I want the second round pick to go to a good left guard to team with Reiff for 15 years.