So the first “real” playoff poll comes out tomorrow…who do people think should be in the playoff? I personally hope they take seriously the instruction to value conference championships and don’t include more than one SEC team, even though that would probably be the result if they just took the best four teams.
How I see the bracket shaping up: (disclaimer: I don’t claim to watch every game every weekend and am basing these largely on the assumption that the polls are roughly accurate)
Obviously an SEC team will be there. I think you can argue that the SEC West champion will deserve to go even if they get upset in the title game…I know that contradicts what I just said about conference champions, but the West is just so ridiculously stacked this year that even with a head-to-head loss, it will probably be hard to argue that the West champion didn’t have a better year.
The Pac-12 champion should be in. Oregon pretty much has the North wrapped up and should certainly be in the top 4 if they win out. The South has a bunch of teams in the lower half of the top 25 and I think whichever one of them finishes on top will have a compelling resume if they beat Oregon in the title game. The problem for the conference would be if Oregon loses another game before the title game.
The Big 10 champion should be in. However, I hope the committee tries to avoid the possibility of playoff games being rematches of regular season games, which could be a problem for Sparty if Oregon wins the Pac-12.
Obviously Florida State is in if they win the ACC, and the ACC is out in the cold if they don’t. That would make for a tough call between the Big 12 champion, another SEC team which would probably be clearly better than the Big 12 champion but wouldn’t be a champion itself (and which most likely would already have lost to the SEC champion), and maybe Notre Dame if they win out.
Playoff Selection Comittee
Jeff Long – SEC
Barry Alvarez – B1G
Michael C. Gould
Pat Haden – Pac-12
Tom Jernstedt
Oliver Luck – Big 12
Archie Manning
Tom Osborne
Dan Radakovich – ACC
Condoleezza Rice
Mike Tranghese – The American
Steve Wieberg
Tyrone Willingham
A column I read today (and can’t be bothered to link to) opined that there is absolutely nothing to be gained by releasing a top 4 this week, or any other week before the end of the season; team’s relative standings will change over the next 5 weeks, and they’re just opening themselves up to a shitstorm of second-guessing.
It’s supposed to be the top four teams at the end of the season, and not the top four based on the entire season, isn’t it? I seriously doubt that a team that isn’t a conference champion gets in while the conference’s champion is left out.
I don’t see Michigan State and Oregon ending up as 2 and 3 (in either order), but if they do, then they have to play each other. If anything, rather than intentionally keeping them apart, there would be incentive to pair them together to get a “traditional Rose Bowl matchup” (unless Oregon ends up #1 somehow the Sugar Bowl will be the 1-4 game and the Rose Bowl the 2-3 game, because of the “the #1 team plays in the nearest semifinal” rule).
Side note: there’s no Harris poll this year. Also, the committee is supposed to ignore both the AP and coaches’ polls, as both had pre-season rankings, but I don’t see that happening.
Rice is closely linked with Stanford, so you could argue the Pac-12 has two reps. And the great thing about her (if you’re a Pac-12 fan) is that she has no shame at all, so she won’t mind being a homer.
And yet the PAC12 was left out. 3 SEC teams and FSU. If that holds up, the Playoff won’t last long. Of course, it won’t hold up as the 3 SEC teams will knock each other out over the next few weeks. The problem is the playoff is (supposedly) weighted toward Conference championships, but nobody knows who those are yet. It is fairly clear though that whoever wins the SEC West has got a berth and fuck everybody else.
8 teams is coming and coming quickly based on this.
I agree with you although I heard on the radio that this playoff system is an 8 year deal. So maybe change won’t come quite as quick as it seems.
I think releasing these weekly rankings is stupid and ESPN made them do it for content purposes and to drive discussion. Oh well, such is life. Just seems pointless when Miss State, Ole Miss, and Auburn are about to settle it on the field.
Early days. Either Auburn or Ole Miss, at least, will be a two-loss team next week, so Oregon should be OK if they win out. And they’ll have earned it, because even if they don’t have a lot of ranked opponents left, they have several tough opponents left.
Except, of course, Stanford really has no purchase this year. And a Cardinal fan is not necessarily going to favor a rival like UofO when it comes down to making a cut.
Looks pretty similar to the other polls at a glance. As an Oregon fan I’m fine with this! I agree that it is kind of pointless to be releasing weekly polls, but it gives people something to talk about and also gives some clues as to the committee’s thought process. The fans of the #5 team will be throwing massive hissy fits no matter what, but the blow may be somewhat softened if it is at least predictable based on the next-to-last rankings.
I hadn’t actually looked at the committee’s official criteria – thanks, That Don Guy. I am struck by how vague they are; the importance of championships and head-to-head matchups and such are to be used only in the case of “comparable” teams. So, if the committee really wants to put two extra SEC teams in addition to the champion, it could just say that the teams getting screwed weren’t “comparable”. Also, it appears from this that the bowls which will serve as the semifinals haven’t been chosen yet and will be picked in order to give the best possible home field advantage to #1 and #2, which is a much bigger advantage to a #1 Florida State than it would be to, say, #1 Minnesota. The weather has an SEC bias!!:mad:
So if everyone who can win out does, it looks like we’ll have FSU, Oregon, the Egg Bowl winner and the Iron Bowl winner, with the TCU-KSU winner, MSU and Notre Dame next up if one of those falters. Potential controversies: what if the SEC East champion wins the title game, Baylor or WVU wins the Big 12, or one of the Arizonas beats Oregon in the Pac-12 championship?
If Miss State and Ole Miss win out until the Egg Bowl, the Iron Bowl winner will be a two loss team–with both losses coming to the Egg Bowl participants. If that happens, and Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl, then you’d have two one loss teams in Mississippi, pending the SEC Championship game.
Ah, yes, I hadn’t realized that. So at least one of those four teams will have to have two losses going into the final weekend, which would presumably put them out of the playoff picture and into the spoiler role. Good news for the teams currently in the bottom half of the top 10.
The location of the games puts northern teams at a disadvantage, like all other aspects of college football.
The first week’s committee findings are a joke. Really the only fair solution is a 16 team playoff. Let ALL the conference champions in, including the MAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West, etc. You’ve got 10 FBS conferences, each of their champions gets in. That leaves 6 slots for independents and non-champions. Seed them 1-16 and have the first round at school sites, 1 hosts 16, 2 hosts 15, etc. That can be done before Christmas. In the week before New Year’s, hold the second round. Then the semis can happen on New Year’s Day and the finals a week later.
As it is, there’s a caste system. Some FBS schools can go 13-0 and not get in the final four. Some can get in with one loss, and others can get in with two losses. Even a three loss team can get in, if you’re the right team with the right history.
If Michigan State and Oregon win out and get snubbed by the committee, then the committee is a joke. The first week where 3 of the top 4 are SEC isn’t a good sign for their impartiality.