True. As nate Silver pointed out in the liveblog today, there’s no rationale for O’Malley as VP. Although I think it’s pretty silly for Democrats to hold his record of crimefighting against him, but hold Hillary blameless for hers.
Seems that Hillary enjoys credit for her “experience”, but the stuff Bill did that Democrats don’t like she evidently gets a pass on. Trying to have it both ways will be harder to explain in the general, but perhaps she doesn’t have to, since all the “bad” stuff Bill did are popular among the general electorate.
How in the heck is taking credit for “her experience” but not for stuff “Bill did” having it both ways? Are she and Bill the same person? Of course she gets a pass on things she didn’t do. :smack:
What precisely did she do during the Clinton administration to justify claiming that time as “experience”? Unless she specifies, we have no idea what she did or didn’t do other than a couple of public things like her failure at health care reform.
If he’s second by 3% or less: Refuses to concede, citing Santorum in 2012 as reason
If he’s definitely second: Blames it on too many of his supporters being ‘winners’ who don’t have the time to sit around all day in a schoolhouse for the caucus, then predicts a win in New Hampshire.
If he’s third or worse: Turns on his campaign staff as a bunch of losers who blew his sure thing.
My current thoughts on the probability of who will win the Republican nomination are Cruz 60%, Rubio 30%, Trump 5%, and Bush, Christie, and Kasich combined 5%. The rest don’t have any chance at all. For the Democratic nomination it will be Clinton.
I’ll grant that with Carson slipping and the non-crazy wing of the GOP failing so far to coalesce around a single candidate, Trump probably won’t be third (or worse). But if it does happen, there’ll be fireworks.
I forget what my reasoning was at that point. Probably mostly trying to go the other direction from a rude Pit thread I started (and should have started in the Pit instead of in Elections) where I was jokingly calling her a “lock.” I think some people think she’s a lock.
But I don’t think she’s really a great candidate. The way she’s talking about university funding almost sounds like she wants to replace even Pell Grants with work-study. She’s pretty much the Grandmother of Forcing Americans to Buy Private Sector Health Insurance. She’s now the only Democratic candidate who *refuses to support *a revived Glass-Steagal Act. Her policies aren’t the policies of progressive theory or political argument, but something else, something more classist and corrupt. I think a Republican who has managed to beat down Trump has a decent chance to make her look like an elitist, a corrupt insider, and a crook.
Several months ago I predicted a close election with Hillary likely to lose to Generic_Republiocrite_Who’s_Not_A_Maniac. I’m feeling more optimistic now. If the GOP Establishment rejects the people’s choice and foists a sane man on its hoi polloi, their base will stay home Election Day angry. And Trump won’t win – It’s mind-boggling to imagine any Obama voter—or any woman at all, for that matter—voting for this jerk who only ran as a publicity stunt. The Democrats will get the White House and the Senate, but not the House of Reps.
But I’m not sure. There seem to be millions of stupid angry white men who normally don’t vote, but will become first-time voters to support this demagogue. They’re likely to give away Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire and make the election very close. If Trump also gets Virginia or Pennsylvania it’s all over. :eek:
If Trump doesn’t get an outright victory in the Primaries, he will ‘allow himself to be persuaded’ to take the VP slot. This is win-win for the Republicans: they get the voters enthused by Trump while neutralising his negatives. And it’s win-win for Trump: he gets to be VP, yet as such has very limited responsibilities so he’s free. So the Republicans will win the White House in this scenario. I won’t speculate as to who the P will be.
It’s inconceivable to me that Trump would ever consider the veep spot. His ego would never allow him to run for number two. The nominee could not trust him to back him up on policy matters, and very likely Hillary would be able to say in a debate “your own running mate disagrees with you” on whatever issue was at hand.
If Trump picks off another winner take all prize he’ll be unstoppable, barring some real shenanigans with the rules committee at the convention. I think the GOP will just cover its losses, concede the presidency to Hillary, and try desperately to keep the Senate.
I’m so glad I did not post in this thread when it first appeared. At that time JEB! was already busy shooting himself in the foot and I was predicting a Rubio-Kasich ticket for the GOP. Two years ago in September, I would have predicted JEB!.
I think the GOP will nominate Trump on the first ballot and then the GOP establishment will work on a firewall to prevent the loss of the Senate and the loss of some seats in the House. The Kochs will pour hundreds of millions into Congressional, state, and local races. The Democrats will win the presidency (a truly pyrrhic victory) but not make progress in the Congress and will suffer further debilitating losses in the states. Overall a victory for the GOP.
I’ve been predicting Hillary since whenever and still do.
I predicted Hillary v Jeb, and I was obviously way wrong.
At this point, I’d say Hillary v Cruz (and maybe Trump as a 3rd party candidate). Trump’s support among Republicans is about to undergo a massive collapse. The pundits have the map favoring Donald, but I think Donald’s negatives are going to catch up with him. And it looks like the party is uniting behind Cruz and not Kasich.
Fascinating thread. Only one of last September’s predictions seems right (ElvisL1ves). At this point, Trump is well-nigh unstoppable. While Sanders is nowhere near conceding,he is probably too far behind in the delegate race. So it will Trump v. Clinton. It is hard to imagine many women voting for Trump at this point, so it could be 1964 all over again. But remember what happened in 1968.
It is far too soon to think about Veeps. Had anyone outside of Alaska heard of Palin on 3/31/08. It would have sounded like a day-early joke. But that reminds me that that choice may have cost McCain the election. It put his judgment into question. And that is one of the most important qualitites needed in a president. Where would you put the candidate with 4 bankruptcies to his credit (?) on that scale?
True to my prediction, the Establishment is now gearing up to throw everything but their butlers at Trump.
Yes, I’m being sarcastic even though that statement is completely true. I am nearly as flabbergasted at the six-month delay in the Establishment’s actions as I am by Trump’s rise. They are in sheer panic at Trump’s success and the near certainty that it will result in a cataclysmic result in November. Yet they sat on their hands for months, failed to unite behind a single alternate candidate, and assumed that the world hadn’t changed. They kept waiting for people to bow down, waiting, waiting, waiting…
An article recently in Fortune discussed Common Core. That had received almost universal support from business leaders and in fact from most Republican politicians. The business people were stunned when people approached exactly as they did Birtherism, fanatical devotion to insane lies. The politicians simply reversed position. But business understood why Common Core was the best thing since sliced bread. The country needs it. And yet, a significant part of the population is removed from reality. They had no idea, and now have no idea of how to proceed.
This is fascinating. Serious, with immense consequences, and poor likely outcomes, true. But fascinating. Who knew the Establishment could fold so easily and quickly?
Or will they? It certainly looks like Trump will be the candidate. But the Establishment is powerful for a reason. There will be battle.