2018 Election Day Thread

Politics & Elections
242

Realistically we weren’t going to get the senate anyway. There are 33 senate elections this year, and 24 are democrats (the democrats had good years in 2006 and 2012) vs only 9 republicans.

The idea that we’d hold all 24 seats, and win 2 of the 9 republican seats was a long shot.

If it makes you feel better, 2020 will be about 20 GOP senators and only 11 dem senators, with 2 undecided (depends on the outcome tonight for those 2).

2022 will be 21 GOP vs 12 dem senators.

Basically this was a terrible year for a blue wave in the senate. A blue wave in 2020 or 2022 would’ve won far more senate seats.

But I guess holding onto senate seats is as good as winning new ones.

243

I guess that is good considering the alternative but Manchin can only barely be called a liberal…if at all.

I’ll take it though since his opponent was even worse.

244

Earlier today, 538 had Joe Donnelly as the (5 in 7 chance) favorite - he lost.

245

I believe turnout for felons is about 20%. So 1.5 million felons gaining the right to vote would mean about 300k new voters, of which around 85% will be democrats.

246

I’d say Mancin cannot be called a Liberal. He’s a relic of populist Democrats from the last place where you used to have them.

In far-down-ballot races, meanwhile, clerk-who-would-not-do-her-job Kim Davis lost her reelection in Rowan County, KY.

247

From Twitter: “Florida could be voting between ice cream and a kick to the head, and it would be 50% to 49%.”

248

In FL, DeSantis has 12,000 more votes than Scott, but Gillam has 40,000 fewer votes than Nelson…

ETA: Yes, I said that right.

249

True, very true.

And I just don’t get the Cuban vote - it’s like they believe they’re white.

250

Beto is leading Cruz by 79 votes right now. Seventy-nine.

251

Cruz is going to win.

252

Karl Rove on Fox News saying that there are many votes still out in the Panhandle, but a bunch of votes still out in Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade. So, he says fuck if he knows.

253

538 Democratic forecast down to 5 of 9 chance of winning the house WTH

254

Huh?

255

We need some research on whether 538 is being too aggressive in their projections. :slight_smile:

256

Yeah, it seems silly. Gillam must be bleeding votes to a third party candidate.

257

I’m breaking out the bourbon its going to be a long night.

258

I’m going to start burning pollsters in effigy.

259

Likely. But it will be as I first said back when every said it would be a Cruz blow out in the early days - a very late night of it.

Meanwhile in IL Sean Casten is ahead of Roskem by 9 points with 16% in. :slight_smile:

But in WV Ojeda is down by over 10 with 40% in. :frowning:

260

I sure could use some input from Nathaniel Rakich right about now.

261

I think Silver told someone to dial the Predictor Bot 9000 down from 11.

It has been hovering around 50% (give or take a few percent) for a while.

So still basically useless. Flip a coin and you will do as well as their algorithm.