2023 NFL Draft Thread - Fair to middling

This couldn’t have worked out better for the Titans. After rumors of them taking Levis at #11 – or even trading up to take him higher – they burn a lot less capital to get him in the 2nd.

And apparently trusting Jenkins and Whitehair to stay healthy all season and play well at different positions from last year. Meh.

If I’m Levis, I’m ecstatic too. By falling in the draft you end up on a decent team, and don’t have the pressure of being a savior. If you are confident in your abilities, you know it’s just a matter of that (whether due to injuries or free agency departures) you’ll get a shot, and all the money and fake that comes with it.

Of course, if I’m Malik Willis, I’m all what the fuck?

My Dolphins only had 4 picks, and I’m pissed that they tried to go for Tom Brady, and even more mad that it cost them their first round pick this year.

But I’m happy with who they got - another cornerback (you can never have too many, and Miami’s secondary was decimated by injuries last year), a speedy running back (Miami is the fasted team in the league, and I like that a lot), a receiving tight end (which they really needed, since Mike Gesicki left), and an offensive lineman (another area of need).

Now it’s just a question of whether these guys live up to the hype.

Undoubtedly, some of the names we heard in the later rounds will soon become impact players, which is why I enjoy the draft.

Remember, too, that lots of free agents are being signed, and sone of the them are gems, too. The league used to have a lot more rounds (it was 12 when I was a kid in the 80’s), so these players are still high quality selections.

Not to mention, being drafted in the 2nd round gets you to free agency one year sooner. See Hurts, Jalen.

This was, I think, the first year I tried to watch draft coverage for my team’s (the Eagles’) picks the way it aired in all its televised spectacle glory (contributing factor: I didn’t have cable TV for all those years it was only on cable).

The Eagles had the 2nd and 3rd picks in Round 3, which were two of three picks that couldn’t be covered because ESPN on ABC had an exclusive interview with Saturday Night Live cast member Heidi Gardner about what it was like when Travis Kelce was on the show. To be fair, they squeezed in a video package about one of them after the interview was over.

The Eagles Round 7 pick was one of ten selections that went unacknowledged while the hosts of the show talked about pumpkin pie. Not exaggerating.

I saved a lot of money over the years by not having cable TV. No regrets.

If it helps any I can catch you up on the important part: the Eagles had the greatest draft in the history of sports and are never going to lose another game.

Cool, that’s two years running now!

The analysis that the Eagles rocked the draft based on being the team to take Carter is simplistic, annoying, and ignores risk (I think Carter wont be all that). The analysis that they rocked the draft because they got good players at value (I like me some Ojomo and McKee and love me some Nolan Smith) however is spot on. Roseman amazes me, not just because he survived the Brian Kelly debacle, but that he fucked the Eagles by paying a kings ransom to draft Carson Wentz, yet had the team in the super bowl shortly after.

I also loved how the Eagles saved $3 million dollars by not signing Miles Sanders and replacing him with two high upside, injury prone RBs.

I have a theory on this.

NFL Analysts and TV people have come to HATE the draft. It’s so, so popular and it generates so much interest during what is primarily a slow time for sports, they simply have to cover it ad nauseum. Every outlet has a bunch of NFL people who have spent the last 8 months covering football, covering the playoffs and then covering the Super Bowl. Lots of stuff happening on a weekly cadence with tons of story lines and actual results. Then, right after the big run up to the Super Bowl, they are asked to launch right into Draft coverage.

The Draft coverage is a different beast. It’s college players which most of the TV folks don’t know intimately. Certainly, the Mel Kipers of the world know them, but more often than not these guys are moonlighting as college scouts. Even the draftniks are forced to churn out mock draft after mock draft. Nothing at all is changing, there’s little to no new information about 90% of the teams and players, but they are forced by the business to generate this content. They’ve been interviewed over and over again by each local sport talk show and podcasts. They’ve been asked to answer the same questions about the same top 15 prospects. By draft day, they are so fed up.

Then draft weekend rolls around and these people are exhausted, working 3 days in a row, talking on camera. Then writing draft grades and pick analysis offline afterwards. Just an absolute meat grinder. They likely have producers and various network clowns in their ears forcing them to interview random celebrities, coaches, and other amateurs. They need to squeeze in a bunch of non-football content in between the actual draft coverage. It’s exasperating. By the time the draft broadcast rolls into the 3rd and 4th hours they get punchy and start fucking around. It’s unavoidable.

The network needs to realize that most of the people watching 4+ hours of draft content 3 days in a row are your die-hards. They don’t want to see Dude Perfect on stage. They don’t really want the extended packages about the players’ hard-luck stories. They don’t want to watch come annoying cross-promotion. They want player highlights and analysis. That’s it. They want every pick announced and covered. They want to hear about trade details. They want to see into the team war rooms. But the mass media infrastructure simply won’t allow it. And the people involved have already said what they need to say about these players 500 times in the weeks prior. 90% of the viewers never heard it or read it, but the people on the broadcast don’t feel that way, they are sick of repeating themselves. So they start getting glib.

That was the most tone deaf thing I saw in this draft.

For anyone who missed it, here it is. It’s painful to watch.

I felt like some TV executive said, “We need younger people to watch, what do younger people like to watch? I don’t care who or what, get one of those acts on stage.”

Fixing the Bears Draft

After having a few days to digest and ingest commentary on the Bears’ draft, I’ve come to a conclusion. It sucked. My opinion on this seems to be a minority view.

Let’s see if I can fix this draft with the benefit of hindsight.

For starters, the pre-draft trade of the 1st overall pick is unquestionably a huge win for the team. No changes there. That said, I really wish we’d have found a way to exploit the Texans more. The Cardinals will probably have 2 picks in the top 4 next year. Who knows what would have happened if we’d have waited to trade that pick until closer to draft day…

The Pick: Round 1, Pick 10 - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

No changes. I broke this down upthread, but this is the right pick for us and we couldn’t have moved back any further. This pick is a homerun.

None of the players taken later make me jealous, in fact 10 of the next 11 picks all have massive question marks. The only question is if we should have stood pat and drafted Carter. I think he’s going to flame out, and even if he doesn’t, he wouldn’t have helped Fields at all. Adding a pick in next year’s draft, which looks more talented, is a win. Though I do think the Eagles under paid.

The Pick: Round 2, Pick 53 - Gervon Dexter Sr., DT, Florida

The more I look at this the more I hate this pick. He’s an under achiever and can’t get off the ball. Not a great trait for a zero-technique NT.

The Right Pick: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota

We really need help at Center. Pressure up the middle has killed Fields and this offense. Mustipher is terrible, Lucas Patrick can’t stay healthy and is a declining player, Whitehair is declining and was terrible at Center when he played there early in his career. So many bad snaps. Poles has said that he feels good about our situation here…he’s nuts.

I prefer Tippmann and I think Poles preferred Tippmann too. Poles loves size/traits guys and Tippmann fits that mold, were he still on the board I wonder what Poles would have done. Schmitz solves a huge issue for this team and is great in the run game. It’s not important, but he’s a hometown kid too.

I briefly considered packaging up some picks to move up in this round to target either Tippmann or an edge like Keion White, but ultimately, I think the cost would have been prohibitive.

The Pick: Round 2, Pick 56 - Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami

I’m going to give Poles the benefit of the doubt on this one. I hate that we gave away a 5th round pick to move up a few spots here. I definitely would have stood pat and let the draft come to me here. If Stevenson was gone, we have other needs and could have taken Jalin Hyatt or Cedric Tillman here.

I do like the player. Not the greatest need, but this kid has the chops to make a difference for our defense. Again, he’s a physical traits guy who’s a bit raw. Will need a lot of coaching and we may end up starting him out at nickel or safety, but he can go out there and man up against a big bodied WR. We really need some size and physicality in our secondary and this fills the need.

The Pick: Round 3, Pick 64 - Zacch Pickens, DT, South Carolina

I’m going to stay with this pick as well. Poles definitely over invested in DT during this draft, but it is a big position of need. There are a bunch of 3rd rounders coming off the board here that I’d have liked. I already mentioned Hyatt and Tillman, I think Devon Achane might have been interesting. But both the DT and DE spots get really scarce here, so the value holds.

I think Pickens is an interesting player. He’s a bit undersized and really needs to be used as a 3-tech, he has no real versatility as a NT or a DE. But he’s quick for a big guy, explosive and has pretty good hands. That said, he was another under achiever in college. Getting him into an NFL strength program and coaching could produce a big payoff. Another traits guy and a project, Poles definitely has a type.

The Pick: Round 4, Pick 115 - Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas

We traded back and recovered a 5th round pick which is great. Balanced out that 2nd round trade up.

People are blowing a lot of smoke up the Bears ass over this pick, but I don’t see it. This dude’s tape is bad. Everyone loves his intangibles, and I’m sure he’s an A+ human, but he’s a backup running back. I like that he’s got less wear and tear having been Bijan’s backup, but his measurables are just okay and his production is pretty pedestrian. His highlights are mostly against weak competition and second stringers in garbage time. He’s not elusive and he’s not “the bruiser” that some reports make him out to be.

The Right Pick: Tavious Robinson, Edge, Mississippi

I’ve been griping about our lack attention to DE all draft and this is the time to address it. Robinson is a Poles guy, great physical ability but needs a lot of polish. I really love the way he attacks the ball when he closes on a QB. Some time in an NFL weight room could unlock something great here. He’ll take a year or two to develop, which the Bears can afford, but in this weak pass rusher class you need to look for diamonds in the rough. You really see some flashes in this guy’s tape, and his story is pretty cool.

The Pick: Round 4, Pick 133 - Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati

Keeping this pick. I really wanted us to add a WR in this draft to help the passing game. We have a pretty solid group, but we need speed and we need guys that can work the middle of the field. Scott is a smallish guy but he’s not the twerp that a lot other guys already off the board are. He had a 2nd or 3rd round grade on most draft boards making this seem like a terrific value. Like most Poles picks so far he’s an elite athlete who needs coaching.

The Pick: Round 5, Pick 148 - Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon

In the 5th round you generally shouldn’t be drafting for need, but we just signed 2 ILBs and we found Jack Sanborn as an UDFA last year. Sewell feels wasteful. If he’s the next Bobby Wagner, then great, but most likely he never gets off of special teams. Best case scenario he makes TJ Edwards redundant.

The Right Pick: Chase Brown, RB, Illinois

This pick should have been a layup. RB wasn’t a huge need for us after some nice FA additions, but the Johnson pick above indicates that Poles is interested in keeping the pantry stocked there. Not a bad strategy. Brown was simply one of the best rusher in college football and his combine numbers were near the top of the class. He’s discount Bijan Robinson. He’s not really a slasher, but more of a one-cut downhill runner. He’d have been a terrific complement to Herbert.

The Pick: Round 5, Pick 165 - Terell Smith, CB, Minnesota

This guy looks like a good get. I am keeping this pick here in spite of us double dipping at CB. This kid’s tape is excellent, and he’s got the athleticism to suggest he should have been a day 2 pick. Kind of a late bloomer, but he caused problems for a number of WRs in this draft.

I briefly considered suggesting we take another blocker in either Asim Richards or Warren McClendon, but Smith looks like a better value. Though if Wright misses snaps we may regret not having another big man to turn to.

The Pick: Round 7, Pick 218 - Travis Bell, DT, Kennesaw State

The Pick: Round 7, Pick 258 - Kendall Williamson, S, Stanford

Seventh round picks here, so I’m not going to pretend to second guess Poles here. These guys are all dart throws. But I would argue that maybe we could have bundled these two picks together to get back into the 6th round. In my draft we already have a Center, but Poles could have maybe gone up to get Luke Wypler in round 6. Also, AT Perry and Elijah Higgins could have been intriguing pass catchers around the same range.

In the 7th, Andrew Vorhees and Alex Forsyth could have been interesting depth guys on the line. Both have medical red flags but have starter upside. Just about every team drafted a lottery ticket at QB, wish the Bears would have done the same. Though pickings were slim late on day 3.

Totally agree with you here. I haven’t watched any tape on Dexter, so don’t have any opinion on him, but it was a deep DL class and center was a bigger need.

I saw one writer postulate that the Bears intend to convert Sewell into an edge rusher. It’s not the craziest idea. He’s the same size as TJ Watt and is a lot better in downhill run defense than pass coverage.

I don’t know if anyone has made that specific analysis since about 10 p.m. on Thursday night, but I also don’t understand what you mean by “not all that.” Their whole draft is good, but it seems obvious to me that the most important reason it’s good is Carter. We can all agree that every player has risks, and a guy who’s killed somebody presents obvious ones. But it sounds like you’re saying you don’t think he’s good enough on the field to be a standout pick at 9, which I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone say. The risk of trading up to #3 to get a defensive player (which Houston did and was praised for, which is dumb) is a lot different from the risk of trading a single 4th rounder to get Carter.

What do you think is Jalen Carter’s floor on the field?

What do you think – should the Bears pursue free agent Leonard Floyd?

Yeah, I know he was a big disappointment the first time around, but that was in a different scheme with a different coaching staff. The current 4-3 is more similar to the Rams’ scheme, where he thrived. There’s plenty of cap available. Seems like a good bet for a short-term deal (assuming he’s open to one).

I am very stoked the Bears did not take him so that the Giants could. The Giants also just picked up the fifth year option on LT Andrew Thomas. I like the direction their OL is going.

That was kinda my point. The Eagles draft was good whether or not they drafted Carter. If you love him, great (I don’t), but even if he’s nothing more than a rotational player, the Eagles draft was still great.

Well, the floor for everyone is never contributing. Carter’s talent/athleticism is evident; he’s got the upside to be a DPOY. But with the whole street racing death thing, the comments about his work ethic, maturity, and “wont talk to any teams outside of the top 10” thing, he also has a bunch of red flags. He has a huge range of outcomes, from DPOY to washout. My guess is an Albert Haynesworth type career, where, if properly motivated and matured, he can be amazing … for a couple years.

Nope. Floyd is way too light for our scheme. We’re running an old school 4-3 and need bulk on the end. Floyd was okay in LA because he was lined up next to Aaron Donald. And in spite of some decent sack numbers, he wasn’t very good against the run.

The meatballs on Reddit are pining for Yannick Ngakoue. He had the same issue. He’s too small and projects more as a 3-4 OLB than a DE. He played DE in Indy so it’s not totally nuts, but I don’t think he fits the mold.

Beggars can’t be choosers, so maybe we sign one of these guys and just work around their limitations. But I think it’s more likely that we just limp along with what we have until the next draft. We could also take a flier on Clowney, though I suspect Poles values character too much to risk that.

I’m also not high on either of those guys. Frank Clark is still out there, too, but I’m guessing Poles knows him pretty well and would have already signed him if he thought he was a good fit.

That would be Gipson and Robinson and their 4.5 combined sacks. Be still my heart.

I usually do the ingest before the digest, but you do you, Omni.

That’s how you end up all bloated.

I actually think DeMarcus Walker is the projected starter. So a little more titillating.

The Colts’ Anthony Richardson announced that he’ll wear #5 instead of the #15 he wore in college, not wanting to be called AR-15 anymore…

And half the people on my Colts Facebook page are losing their shit.