I’m a weird dude.
Agreed. I don’t think There are enough liberals in Georgia to help Ossoff win the day. Same goes for the runoff when there is a candidate to coalesce around.
And if I know anything about talk radio, the hosts will pound Ossoff and smear him up and down until the new election to fire up their base to keep the commy/carpetbagger out. And like clockwork, the bulk of Georgians will swallow that whole. Sometimes I wish General Sherman would return for a redo.
49% is pretty damn good for Ossoff - a hair away from an outright majority. Add in the other democratic votes and just a tiny number of Republicans who either stay home because their preferred candidate lost, or even switch sides, and Ossoff has a real chance. Nothing guaranteed, but possible - 538 found several past runoff results in which the winner exceeded their total party aggregate vote from the first round, so it’s not only possible, but not particularly unusual. Betting markets have it at about 55-45 for Handel right now.
Don’t be surprised if the runoff is tight. Republicans have spent the last 8 years being the ones pissed off and hankering to get to the polls and vote the rascals out. Now the shoe is on the other foot and the anger and motivation is on the other side.
Hope springs eternal.
Yes, I share your hope that the US will wake up and reject the criminality of the fake person occupying the White House.
Kevin Drum points out that Hillary lost this district by only 1.5% in November, while the Dem field, taken as a whole, lost to the GOP field, ditto, by 1.9%. (Sure, the Dem field was almost entirely Ossoff, but still.)
So it looks to me less like evidence of an aroused Dem electorate (even though that’s what I’d like to believe) than a changing district. It really was a safe GOP district for many years, and suddenly it isn’t quite so much. This happens.
There is one advantage that Ossoff gains in the runoff that he didn’t have up until now: a specific opponent that can be attacked. Ossoff’s team should be thinking hard, and quickly, about how they want to define Handel.
But you can say the same about the Republican who no longer has a circular firing squad to deal with.
The obvious angle of attack is the Komen fiasco. I recommend sticking to basics (“She had to resign”) and letting her try to spin the Planned Parenthood angle (on the general theory “if you’re explaining, you’re losing”).
Big win is really big loss. Also up is down and black is white.
Yeah, but that’ll make less difference since outside groups have already been running ads attacking Ossoff.
Karen Handel is a prototypical right winger:
Handel opposes abortion. She favors eliminating government funding for Planned Parenthood. She played a key role in Komen’s short-lived decision to defund Planned Parenthood. (she was an executive at the Komen Foundation)
Handel is in favor of repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).
Handel did not support the bipartisan Senate “Gang of Eight” bill, which would have provided a pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States.
Handel opposes same-sex marriage and same-sex civil unions. She has voted no on legislation that would give domestic partner benefits. She opposes the adoption of children by gay individuals, stating that it “is not the best household for a child.”
And more likely than not, she’s going to win the run-off election.
Yeah. I think us Dems in Georgia (I’m in the 4th District, FWIW) are hoping that the Trump fans think that Handel is too establishment and don’t come out and vote for her (she doesn’t seem to be a big fan of the President herself). That seems to be the only way to success for Ossoff.
There are 48 congressional districts that are currently held by Republicans that are more Democratic leaning than GA-06. Even a close loss on July 20 is a good sign for team D. It’s been mentioned in this thread already, but I’ll say it again. Price won this district by 23 points six months ago. This is Newt Gingrich’s old seat for crying out loud.
Democrats spent $8.3M on the GA-06 election - so far. How much will they spend on the June runoff?
Can they do that 48 times for those 48 congressional districts?
I’m not sure why you’re asking this question, but I’ll answer it. Yes. They can absolutely spend that much on those races. They can do it without breaking a sweat. That’s around half a billion bucks. $3.7 billion was spent on the 2014 midterms.
We will have to take paycuts, I fear: the Soros Fund isn’t inexhaustible, after all, and we protesters have grown fat demanding a living wage.
In 2016, ALL House Dem campaigns spent (drum roll) $422M. That’s for all of them - together.
And you think Dems can afford to spend $500M on 48 districts? I don’t think so.
You say this. Fivethirtyeight says “*t’s the equivalent of a tossup.” I’m not counting chickens, but I’m also not throwing in the towel.