This time, Graham and Pataki don’t even get a seat at the kids’ table, to which Christie and Huckabee have been relegated. That leaves eight candidates in the main event: Trump, Carson, Rubio, Bush, Cruz, Kasich, Paul and Fiorina.
Fox Business Network hosts. Debate begins at 9pm EST.
I think it goes without saying – does anyone care to dispute it? – that of the eight listed above, only Rubio, Bush and Kasich would have even a ghost of a prayer of winning in November 2016, regardless of whether the Dem nominee is Clinton, Sanders or O’Malley.
To paraphrase Lincoln, the chances of any of that lot beating Hillary are about as thin as soup made by boiling the shadow of a pigeon that had starved to death.
I can’t wait to see what gems come from Bush’s mouth “Fuck yeah I’d kill that Hitler baby, hee-yah! I’d kill for my dad, too!” I’m hoping Trump ridicules Carson’s autobiography whoppers.
Polls mean nothing, especially a year before the election.
But these have the “Republican Candidate” ahead, tied, or close against Hillary in some key states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and Florida, and way ahead in states that went Dem last time, like Iowa. The fact that the Republican candidate hasn’t even been chosen yet should be of some significance of what those polls are saying. As big of a ridiculous circus that the Republican primary is, Clinton is still not a real strong candidate.
I could see Fiorina falling somewhere between the more typical establishment candidates and the rest if she’s running against someone other than Clinton. She presents well and might get a bump among women like Obama did among African Americans as the first female nominee. Unless I missed something she hasn’t painted herself solidly in to an immigration corner potentially letting her get back closer to W numbers among the demographic instead of Romney numbers. Against Clinton though… I don’t believe in ghosts.
Not Bush, and it takes some generosity to include Kasich. But, as long as Trump is leading, and has no undiscovered skeletons, and no new wackiness to display, and keeps getting stronger reason to think he can actually win and will therefore stay in, you have to include him as a possibility. Carson is disqualifying himself now, and the rest soon will.
The GOP voters will nominate whoever The Money tells them is The Electable One, as usual. The problem is finding someone who is electable. I’m sure they’d be happy with Rubio as the running mate, but he’s not yet an obvious choice for the top slot.
^ I think Kasich is this year’s Jon Huntsman. Respectable, moderate, actually did demonstrable things, would stand a chance in the general against Hillary, will never win the primary.
As for the debate itself I see Rubio shining again, as it’s going to be all on substance. It’s FOX Business, not FOX News, and Bartiromo and Cavuto are very well respected. Which means Carson is going to look bad and Trump will probably stay the same because no one is supporting Trump due to his numerical proposals but more his broad ideas.
Oh, I include Trump as a possibility for the nomination, all right, but he’ll never be POTUS.
Bush is the wild card tonight. He’s going down in flames and he knows it. The problem is attack mode does not suit his personality. Every other candidate I can probably tell you exactly what they’re going to say.
Jon Huntsman was considerably more conservative, and respectable, than Kasich.
Rubio is the dumbest of the lot, with the possible exception of Bush. He was unable to understand the concept of a “percentage” last debate. That being said he is incredibly rehearsed which helps him escape these debates unexposed. I am waiting for him to be tripped up, maybe on the credit card issue.
The RNC told the press that the WiFi password at the debate is StopHillary
Moreover, if Bush attacks Rubio, it will look like a pitiable attempt at a do-over vs last time. I expect he might trade some barbs with Rubio but it won’t be a set piece duel like the CNBC debate. The only way Bush “wins” tonight’s debate is if Rubio attacks him first, and he smacks down Rubio. Other than that, I don’t see how he gets a favorable change of narrative out of it.
Frankly, I think Bush is mostly irrelevant for the time being and the real story will be whether Carson’s fabulations translate to a debate liability or not.
My bet is that Kasich will go hardest after Ben Carson. Kasich has nothing to lose and needs a breakthrough. He needs to start capturing some media attention and be viewed as an alternative to Rubio. Kasich isn’t going to win big with Carson supporters anyway. (My guess is that Cruz will come to Carson’s rescue and pile on against Kasich.) If Kasich can force some kind of moment of strength and get Carson to lose his cool or say something stupid [well, stupider than normal] the narrative tomorrow could be, Kasich is a contender and Carson is starting to crumble.
I think Trump would very much like to pounce on Carson, who’s been drinking his milkshake lately, but I’m afraid Trump is quite well defanged here. He really can’t beat up too hard on Carson, who’s a well-liked and sympathetic figure among the pro-outsider base, so he’ll have to resort to weak sauce innuendo like, “I don’t know, there’s something strange going on, some things don’t seem to add up but voters will decide.”
Why would he even try? Surely he’s better off killing Bush’s candidacy?
Bush’s presence in the race doesn’t cost Trump anything. If Bush left the race, how much of his ~8% support would swing over to Trump? Virtually none.
The main thing Trump gets out of Bush is [was] a ready victim to his bullying; someone who could easily be used to set up a Trump moment of strength. However, with Bush so badly weakened I don’t think Trump can use him for that purpose quite so much. Trump went after Bush hard in the early debates, when Bush was viewed as the frontrunner. At this point the main feeling toward Bush (among those who are paying attention to the race at all) is probably pity. That’s certainly what I feel for the guy, anyway. Kicking a man when he’s down won’t make Trump look good, and I think Trump gets that. Let’s see if I’m proven wrong though…
I don’t know what to watch tonight. The Republican debate or The Muppets.
One show has a bunch of stuffed characters whose mouths move and say ridiculous things despite having stuffing for brains. The other show has Miss Piggy.
ba-dum-bum!
I don’t really know what to expect here either (and won’t be able to watch tonight, so I look forward to you all telling me tomorrow), but: I would point out that Trump certainly kicked Rand Paul a bit, and he’s only ever been down. Specifically, I remember a couple comments about how he’s only at 1%, that’s why he’s at the end, I don’t even know why he’s here, etc, etc. And a specific shot of, “you’re having a hard time tonight,” which seemed to be a reference to Paul’s well-known near-deafness. Didn’t seem to hurt Trump in the slightest.
Indeed. Specifically, it signifies that 5-10 percentage points need to be shaved from the GOP numbers to correct for the structural advantage of Generic Guy in a competition with Actual Candidate (an advantage which cannot, of course, obtain in the actual election).
Look for Bush to go after Baby Hitler pretty hard tonight, possibly right out of the gate. His attacks really earned him some good press this week, and no matter what Baby Hitler says about his own record, he pretty much has a target on his ass at this point. Bush knows this and will use it to his advantage.
But, what about Fetus Hitler?
Every fetus is priceless. Once they’re born, they’re fair game.