Even fewer expect the Dutch Inquisition. 
Not the Supreme Court but another republican willfully missing outcomes:
Full title and sub-head: Pence Stuns CNN Anchor With Nonchalance About ‘Dangerous’ MAGA Voters - “It’s pretty remarkable that you’re not concerned about it, given the fact that they wanted to hang you on on Jan. 6,” Bash told the ex-veep.
Proof once again that Pence has the balls of a hamster. Even though DJT in effect condemned him to die, Pence still has enough fear of the MAGA base and enough delusions about being president that he can’t bring himself to call Donald’s conduct criminal.
As Miles Taylor put it, he has an “erect posture but a flaccid conscience”.
I’m responding to you here instead of in the FBI Search thread because this is a broader thread in which to discuss consequences from Trump’s efforts to overturn the election and fallout from the documents case as well.
I’m definitely less sure about the nominee half of the prediction than the one about the general election, but here’s why I think what I think:
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As you pointed out, it’s still quite early. Most voters aren’t even paying that much attention. I’d guess most just reflexively respond, “Trump,” when asked who they prefer as their nominee.
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The Moneyed Class™, which includes people like Mitch McConnell, the Kochs and other big bux donors, don’t want him. He’s too unpredictable and selfish. He won’t play for their team, because Trump recognizes no team except himself. That makes him dangerous – even to them. They were prepared to back DeSantis, but DeSantis blew it. The MC has now turned its gaze upon Tim Scott. Notice who’s moving up in the polls lately? Keep an eye on that.
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Trump’s support is softening. It’s slow, but the evidence is in the waning crowds. You’ll notice he only “campaigns” in places where he’s sure to bring in a large number of MAGAs, such as Florida and South Carolina. He’s also been unable to rouse the dangerous faithful. Many of their leaders are now serving lengthy prison sentences, so there are fewer people to organize the hate into a cohesive attack force. Trump tried hard to marshal such a force for the dates of his arraignments in both Manhattan and Florida. None materialized. That’s telling.
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It becomes very hard for most people to ignore mounting evidence. Some will doubtless cling to the misinformation being promulgated by Fox and other batshit crazy “news” sources, but the more often actual evidence prevails, the harder it gets to keep bullshitting yourself. The Fox settlement with Dominion demonstrated this. The Meadows texts behind Trump’s back with various other Trump people showing how they were laughing about the stolen election claims demonstrate this too. Clearly Trump’s people view him as a crackpot behind his back. As more evidence of Trump’s crimes and cynicism comes to light, the more his supporters will quietly turn their backs to him and look for a different MAGAt to take up their cause. That’s why all these chickenshit Trump wannabes such as DeSantis and Scott won’t criticize him and won’t drop out of the race. They want those voters when Trump sinks out of sight.
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Trump fatigue. While they won’t say so on the record, a hell of a lot of Republicans and even fervent supporters are getting sick of the Trump show and privately wish he would just go away. This sentiment will grow as he continues to fleece the rubes of their hard-earned dollars for no greater purpose than to pay his mounting legal bills. He’s burning through the money for sure.
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These indictments/court appearances/trials are going to bury him. And at some point, a federal judge is going to muzzle him from tainting the jury pool with his constant incitement to violence against DOJ/FBI officials. If he fails to obey, he will be jailed. Those will be some rough days, but it’s a corner that must be turned.
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I expect a lot of the Trump rabble rousers are also going to get scooped up in these investigations/prosecutions. Think Steve Bannon, Mike Flynn, Stephen Miller, Roger Stone, Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, et. al. These scum turn up everywhere around the rotten, fetid sinkhole that is Trump. With them gone, there will be far fewer instigators of the hate and lies.
The bad news is, Trumpism doesn’t go away with Trump. We’ll be fighting this ongoing attack on our democracy for a very long time. It is what the Republican party has become: A fascist organization that wants to put us all under their boot heels, and in my opinion, we must remain vigilant to prevent it. But one despot at a time, I suppose.
Outstanding analysis. Thanks for the response!
Most welcome. 
Now, let’s just hope I’m right!
I think you’re missing the most important element - Trump himself. What’s he going to do if he thinks his support is waning? He’ll go all out against his challengers, whoever happens to be at the top at the time. In 2016, he crushed them all, because that’s what the Republican voter base responds to best - bombastic attacks and grievance. I don’t see why this would change, even if he’s on trial. I think it’s clear that Republicans, in general, want Trump. Not Trump light, or Trump without the baggage - the grievance and bombast and crazy nonsense are features, not bugs.
Like I said, I’m less confident he won’t end up the nominee. But if he does, that’s all right. Joe Biden knows what he’s doing, and he will win against Trump. I’m frankly far more afraid if Tim Scott does get the nomination. Or Asa Hutchinson (unlikely) or Chris Christie (cold day in hell).
Fair enough. I also think Trump will lose the general. I just can’t imagine a realistic scenario, short of Trump’s death, that leads to someone else getting the nomination.
I just don’t see rank and file republicans turning out for a black guy. That’s such a 180 from the trump era.
No, I don’t think they will, either. Too much of the Republican bile is based on pure racism. But some Never Trumper Republicans seem hopeful.
Agreed on support for a Black candidate. There are definitely Republicans who would love to vote for “one of the good ones”. I remember when there were rumors about Colin Powell putting his name in the ring for elections, and there was some buzz from the right. But overall, I just don’t see it.
The one who scares me the most who I think may come galloping out from the right is Glenn Younkin, current Governor of Virginia. He’s good at pretending to be a moderate. He’s anything but. It worked well to get elected as a governor. He might fool enough people in a general election, too.
Depends on the poll. But I’d say Vivek Ramaswamy is moving up the most. Admittedly I just cherry-picked the best poll I could find for Ramaswamy, but I didn’t spot any move up that dramatic for Scott. Those MC’s don’t have the power they used to.
If it goes like in 2016, Ramaswany will be the type to rise to the top of the polls and quickly flame out. And I guess being a Hindu could do it. Now, if the Democrats were running Harris, I think being Hindu would help him get the nomination, since Republicans could own the libs by nominating a “real” Indian. But without a hook like that, the Hindu thing may play poorly.
So I don’t dismiss Scott. Not because party bosses like him, but because I’m convinced the own-the-libs impulse to avoid a white male is real.
Learned from painful experience that doesn’t matter.
The jury said he, by the normal definition, raped a woman. And the polls didn’t move.
See my last link. Voters are thinking Biden means inflation and recession.
I admit you could have something there.
Hope you are wrong, but am not disagreeing with what’s quoted. Candace Owens sounds a good deal worse than Tim Scott or even Ramaswamy.
Which is why it’s so important to, along with other strategies, POUND on the (objectively factual) message that it’s a sin to vote for any Republican, for any office.
My take is that the money-class Republicans are terrified that Trump’s shenanigans will send the GOP into the dustbin of history with the Whigs and Federalists, and they’ll be facing a couple of election cycles of Democratic dominance (resulting in an end to their holiday from paying taxes and following regulations) until a new two-party system solidifies.
I wonder where they get that idea? I’ve heard nothing but inflation and recession for 3 years. It seems like inflation is coming down, but it seems like the moneyed class has been trying to manufacture a recession with high interest rates and mass layoffs, it just hasn’t been working, yet.
Wall Street seems to like Bidenomics:
Where they got the idea? You could say, in the context of the poll I linked, that they got the recession from being asked the question. However, that can’t explain why so many voters associate Biden and inflation.
The thread is about the aftermath of the storming of the Capitol. I think that in the aftermath of the storming of the Capitol, median voters gave up on worrying about the government being overthrown. If you look at page 16 of that poll, 34 percent of voters cite inflation as among “the most important issues facing the country today” – more than for any other issue. And only 4 percent cite January 6.
Few persuadable voters think getting an answer to the question of whether Donald Trump is a criminal, either for January 6, or for document secrecy violations, or for Stormy-Daniels-related campaign law violations, or for anything else, is anywhere near an important issue.
However, I’ve been wrong before. And if Trump was actually imprisoned, whether he could do the president job from a cell could become a real issue. I say that with email access he could, but, then, I don’t want more imperial presidencies.