Some very promising polls. I believe Florida & either Penn or Michigan is enough.
| Race/Topic | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | FOX News | Biden 50, Trump 39 | Biden +11 |
| Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden | FOX News | Biden 51, Trump 38 | Biden +13 |
| Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | FOX News | Biden 49, Trump 40 | Biden +9 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | St. Pete Polls* | Biden 50, Trump 44 | Biden +6 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | Quinnipiac | Biden 51, Trump 38 | Biden +13 |
Maine, Mass, Minn, N. Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Michigan all looking to Biden, but Ohio leans Trump. What’s up Ohio? What’s up?
| Race/Topic (Click to Sort) | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine: Trump vs. Biden | Colby College/Socialsphere | Biden 50, Trump 38 | Biden +12 |
| Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden | Colby College/Socialsphere | Biden 45, Trump 42 | Biden +3 |
| Maine CD1: Trump vs. Biden | Colby College/Socialsphere | Biden 55, Trump 35 | Biden +20 |
| Massachusetts: Trump vs. Biden | MassINC | Biden 55, Trump 23 | Biden +32 |
| Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon | Colby College/Socialsphere | Gideon 44, Collins 39 | Gideon +5 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | Harvard-Harris | Biden 55, Trump 45 | Biden +10 |
| Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden | Trafalgar Group ®* | Biden 49, Trump 44 | Biden +5 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | NBC News/Marist | Biden 51, Trump 44 | Biden +7 |
| North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham | NBC News/Marist | Cunningham 50, Tillis 41 | Cunningham +9 |
| North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper | NBC News/Marist | Cooper 58, Forest 38 | Cooper +20 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Harvard-Harris | Approve 44, Disapprove 56 | Disapprove +12 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | CNN | Biden 51, Trump 46 | Biden +5 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | CNN | Biden 49, Trump 45 | Biden +4 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | NBC News/Marist | Biden 50, Trump 45 | Biden +5 |
| Ohio: Trump vs. Biden | CBS News/YouGov | Biden 45, Trump 46 | Trump +1 |
| Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | CNN | Biden 52, Trump 40 | Biden +12 |
| Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | CBS News/YouGov | Biden 48, Trump 42 | Biden +6 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | CBS News/YouGov | Biden 51, Trump 41 | Biden +10 |
| Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly | NBC News/Marist | Kelly 53, McSally 41 | Kelly +12 |
I saw part of Biden’s speech/press conference today until it blinked out.
I think he’s doing great in this format.
The absence of a crowd makes the presentation less like a partisan campaign rally and more like he’s already president, which is exactly how I think he should act.
The campaign slogan Build Back Better made me wince because it’s a tongue twister, but he seems to have mastered it. Whatever, they’re stuck with it now.
I’ve just watched that on CSPAN and agree with you. I thought it was a fantastic performance and I especially liked that passage where he pointed out and told the backstory of a young father and IT system technician in the audience as an example of individual drive in adversity matched with a pathway of opportunity. 28 minutes in.
Trump won Ohio by more than 8% but has rarely broken 50% in polls here since he took office. Bill Clinton took Ohio twice with pluralities and Obama twice with outright majorities; ol’ Joe could do so too, but it won’t be easy. Trump knows he has to win and already has TV ads up here. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.
I think it works pretty well when spoken out loud. It’s more like a: Build. Back. Better. Which seems to flow decently.
So right now, state polls are showing Biden likely to win 278 of the electoral votes. You need 270 to win. Trump is showing only 169 votes. Of the 91 Toss-Up, it includes Az, NC, Fl which are all likely to go Biden and Ohio might go to Biden, it is drifting towards him lately.
It is possible Biden takes 351 to 185, that would be a nice repudiation of Trump and his policies and his Trumpness.
Interactive Map: https://www.270towin.com/
Nice (the Joe Biden talk in Delaware in C-SPAN). Thanks for the heads-up.
I hope MY senile period (in a couple decades) is half as on-the-ball as that. (I jest, of course. He’s obviously far from senile, as demonstrated in that video).
The Lincoln Project and another anti-Trump Republican PAC have agreed to specifically target Ohio and blitz it with their magic. One of the LP founders (forget which one, Rick Wilson, I think) said that if they can deny Trump Ohio, he has no path to a win.
More power to them!
I don’t think it’s enough for Biden to win; the margin of victory has to be convincing. The Republicans must lose not just electoral college but Biden needs to win a healthy number of states and I’d prefer it if he could sweep swing states, taking the ones Obama won in 2008.
I’m beginning to worry, too, if Biden’s campaign is doing enough to actually push voters out of their houses.
FL cannot be counted on by Democrats. A very unreliable electorate. Ohio is leaning hard to Red state status. AZ and NC are different stories and should be a focus of the Ds along with the Rust Belt states of PA, MI and WI. Any other swing states are pure gravy.
ETA: My scenario of states HRC won in 2016 + PA, MI, WI, AZ & NC gives the election to Biden 304 - Trump 234. A 70 point diff. I can live with that.
True, Fla is very unstable. But it’s a fact that FL and even TX are possibly going Blue- which means the GOP and trump have to spend $$ and time there.
FL and TX are leaning Blue at the moment, yes. And yes, the GOP will have to spend more $$$ in both than they anticipated. However, I don’t doubt the GOP will lie and disenfranchise like maniacs to stop either of them from flipping.
Of course if FL goes Blue, election night will be over for DJT. If TX goes for Biden we will have a Blue tidal wave the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a while. I just don’t anticipate it playing out this way.
Agree with your analysis of both FL and OH, both of which have been trending redder and redder in recent years. On the flip side, OH may be starting to lose its status as a bellwether state, which in fact might be PA or MI this time.
Kamela Harris is the official VP pick for the Democrats. She’s smart, 55 years old, a woman of color. Her Senate seat won’t go Republican.
I think it is a solid choice and will defuse some of the “Democratics will take your police protection away from the suburbs fear mongering” away.
I like Kamela, she was roughly 4th on my list for the Dem Presidential Nomination and I actually like her better than Warren but I like Warren being a progressive.
And don’t forget, easy on the eyes. Attractiveness plays a big role in someone’s electability.
This could turn out to be very important.
The entire GOP effort seems focused on ‘don’t elect the Scary Leftists!’—and they are getting zero help for that from the candidacies of long-time, proven moderates Biden and Harris. Zero help.
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D)* | Biden 50, Trump 44 | Biden +6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 48, Trump 44 | Biden +4 |
| Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 48, Trump 43 | Biden +5 |
| Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 47, Trump 43 | Biden +4 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Trump 48, Biden 47 | Trump +1 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 50, Trump 44 | Biden +6 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 45, Trump 44 | Biden +1 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | Emerson | Biden 49, Trump 45 | Biden +4 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | Emerson | Trump 48, Biden 46 | Trump +2 |
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | Emerson | Biden 52, Trump 43 | Biden +9 |
| Massachusetts: Trump vs. Biden | WBUR/MassINC | Biden 63, Trump 27 | Biden +36 |
| Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Peters 48, James 45 | Peters +3 |
| Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Kelly 49, McSally 43 | Kelly +6 |
| Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly | Emerson | Kelly 52, McSally 41 | Kelly +11 |
| North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Cunningham 48, Tillis 43 | Cunningham +5 |
| North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham | Emerson | Cunningham 44, Tillis 42 | Cunningham +2 |
| North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper | Emerson | Cooper 50, Forest 44 | Cooper +6 |
| President Trump Job Approval | CNBC/Change Research (D)* | Approve 46, Disapprove 54 | Disapprove +8 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Politico/Morning Consult | Approve 41, Disapprove 58 | Disapprove +17 |
| Direction of Country | Politico/Morning Consult | Right Direction 30, Wrong Track 70 | Wrong Track +40 |
| General Election: Trump vs. Biden | Monmouth* | Biden 51, Trump 41 | Biden +10 |
| Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | Marquette | Biden 50, Trump 46 | Biden +4 |
| Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden | Emerson | Biden 50, Trump 47 | Biden +3 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | Rasmussen Reports | Trump 48, Biden 47 | Trump +1 |
| Georgia: Trump vs. Biden | WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA | Trump 44, Biden 46 | Biden +2 |
| Maine: Trump vs. Biden | Bangor Daily News | Biden 44, Trump 36 | Biden +8 |
| Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden | Bangor Daily News | Biden 39, Trump 38 | Biden +1 |
| Maine CD1: Trump vs. Biden | Bangor Daily News | Biden 49, Trump 33 | Biden +16 |
| Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon | Bangor Daily News | Gideon 43, Collins 38 | Gideon +5 |
| Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff | WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA | Perdue 44, Ossoff 41 | Perdue +3 |
| Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary | WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA | Loeffler 26, Collins 17, Warnock 17, Lieberman 13, Tarver 3, Slowinski | Loeffler +9 |
| Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly | OH Predictive Insights | Kelly 48, McSally 43 | Kelly +5 |
| Minnesota Senate - Lewis vs. Smith | Emerson | Smith 48, Lewis 45 | Smith +3 |
| Maine 2nd District - Crafts vs. Golden | Bangor Daily News | Golden 42, Crafts 33 | Golden +9 |
| President Trump Job Approval | Rasmussen Reports | Approve 49, Disapprove 51 | Disapprove +2 |
| Race/Topic (Click to Sort) | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | Franklin & Marshall | Biden 49, Trump 42 | Biden +7 |
| Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 49, Trump 46 | Biden +3 |
| Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 50, Trump 44 | Biden +6 |
| Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 49, Trump 44 | Biden +5 |
| Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | Trafalgar Group ®* | Biden 45, Trump 46 | Trump +1 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Trump 47, Biden 48 | Biden +1 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 49, Trump 46 | Biden +3 |
| Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | CNBC/Change Research (D) | Biden 49, Trump 47 | Biden +2 |
| Virginia: Trump vs. Biden | Roanoke College | Biden 53, Trump 39 | Biden +14 |
Michigan & Pennsylvania give me a lot of hope. Florida, Arizona & Wisconsin are too close.