I don’t know on what your are basing your beliefs about intelligence gathering. Would you care to elaborate?
If by “super majority” you mean take enough Senate seats that Dems don’t need Republicans to impeach, I agree with you. They won’t. I think they may take three. Four if things go insanely well. It will be a fight. Republicans will go to the mats for the Senate races, but my hope is that it won’t be a money election.
Still, there was news today that Fancy Bear has already hacked Senate email servers, so we can see where the Russians will be placing their emphasis in 2018. I think this is one reason Republicans, particularly in the Senate, are ignoring their constituents. They’re counting on Russian help.
I’ve also heard that Russian bots amplified the call through social media for Al Franken to step down for his transgressions. This tactic seems to have worked. Especially interesting in light of Roger Stone’s tweet the night before the Franken news broke that it would soon be “Al Franken’s turn in the barrel.” Looks like it was, and they were, again, wildly successful.
As you have pointed out, asahi, Russian interference through propaganda and opinion manipulation will continue to be the true enemy in 2018. People need to consider that they may hold their opinions only because they have been propagandized to have them.
I think it goes beyond opinion manipulation and ends up in outright voting system manipulation. If Hillary were president, I think it would not go beyond botnet astroturfing with the occasional test hack just to show what could be done. Putin would still be at war with the US regardless of the WH occupant, but he would have to weigh what Hillary might authorize in return. But with Trump being effectively a Putin “asset” and with the GOP party ensnared in the tangled web of the hacking and Mueller’s investigation, I think Putin very well could sense that the opportunity is there to go well beyond what would be imaginable in other times.
I could be wrong and chick little and alarmist – God knows I hope I am. I hope you all get to create another “Asahi cut the chicken little shit out” thread. I would pee on my own parade. But I really and truly think Putin is setting us up for a massive blow.
Based on personal experience at the micro level working elections, I believe it would be hard to accomplish actual voting system manipulation on any significant scale. Not saying it can’t be done on a limited basis, but it really would be hard to have much effect.
Every county in the country has their own way of doing it. This is a feature, not a bug. Many now maintain paper ballot backups for recount purposes, even if they use electronic systems to vote and count. Many that didn’t have backup systems in place previously have them now. Voting system manipulation was a concern, especially with Diebold machines, thankfully, before Russians got involved. Lots of local elections boards took steps to safeguard their systems in the wake of that.
There are also always elections “watchers” who ensure the integrity of the process in each venue.
That’s why I’m less concerned about actual voter system manipulation than you are, I think. Again, it’s possible in limited ways – but they are pretty limited. As I have pointed out previously, large discrepancies between exit polls and vote tabulations will be closely scrutinized in 2018.
The worry, from what I know of it, isn’t manipulating of vote tallies so much as targeted alteration of voter registrations to swing elections.
If you want to swing a statewide election in Wisconsin, just find the counties and precincts that are 90% democratic and start deleting and changing voter registrations. Then when people come in to vote, they won’t be in the system and will be unable to vote.
You’re right.
I think it’s important to distinguish between voting system manipulation and voter suppression efforts. What you’re referring to, in my opinion, is voter suppression.
I hope every single person who intends to vote in 2018 will take a few minutes to ensure they are properly registered ahead of the election. Make sure they’re on the rolls and they will not be impeded in any way to vote on Election Day.
Another ‘danger’ I see isn’t necessarily successful hacking but simply the attack itsel. The media pick up on hacks across the country and go wild with the story. Dems and Repubs react to it questioning whether or not the system has actually, in fact, been compromised. One side wins (most likely Dems); the other side loses. The losing side claims that the elections were rigged. The media supports the fact that elections were somehow ‘disturbed’ by outside influence. Now you have a country that doesn’t trust the result.
If Hillary or Obama were president, Putin might think twice about going hard on the US elections apparatus because he knows we could escalate. He might be willing to counter-escalate, but the point is: he’d have to think more carefully about his response and measure it more carefully with Clinton or Obama. But with Trump, the situation is altogether different…for reasons that are obvious.
I appreciate how you’re thinking about it and I agree to a point. It’s certain Putin will never have a better chance to continue his mischief than with his complete tool in the White House.
OTOH, I suspect things haven’t really gone as Putin may have hoped, either. He would have preferred to pursue his efforts in a sub rosa manner, with far less attention than his subversion efforts received. Not only did the American debacle bring unwanted attention to his antics in our own country, but in many other elections around the world. Overplayed his hand.
I don’t count out what our intelligence agencies are doing on their own. Few institutions have suffered more at the hands of Putin’s efforts than our FBI, State Department, DOJ and CIA. You can bet they are undertaking major counterintelligence efforts against more subversion.
It would definitely be better if our whole Congress and administration were working to stop the interference. But I take some comfort in the abilities of career intelligence folks against anything dipshits like Kevin McCarthy or Paul Ryan could accomplish – even if they cared about the consequences.
It doesn’t matter what the Russian’s do or don’t do at this point. They’ve certainly done plenty and will continue to do so - as will other sources now that its painfully obvious how to accomplish things with our current electorate.
The problem we have now is that we have a President who at every turn
a) undermines the Free Press
b) undermines his own Department of Justice and the institutions we count on to help keep things in check
c) openly touts conspiracy theories (Shadow Goverment)
d) openly touts that the system is ‘rigged’.
This is the breakdown of democracy - While every election cycle there is someone claiming the currently elected president will attempt to prevent the next election - this time we have an elected president that is setting everything up such that he would appear to actually try it - his own ‘voting commision’ was shut down because the ‘dirty liberals’ were trying to hide illegal voting - ‘we clearly can’t have an election until this is shored up’.
His base will not believe, or back, what Mueller presents - it will always be a ‘witch hunt’ - when this presidency ends (naturally or otherwise) - Trumps failures (in thier mind) will be due to the 'shadow govt that didnt back him. If it ends due to impeachment, etc - it will be called a coup, etc.
Not much doubt in my mind that his base would still wildly support 45 in any suspension of government, no matter what reason he puts forward (delivered via tweet, of course), even when he puts forth a complete opposite reason a few hours later.
I keep trying to tell myself that surely, surely, this administration is not that gonzo crazy, that it’s merely 45’s antics bringing much more attention to similar things that occurred many times before, behind the scenes. I try to shy away from hyperbole, since I can’t believe - don’t want to believe - that I’m watching the country suffer (surely not irreparably?) under the worst presidential administration in my lifetime (born in 1960) and maybe the worst ever.
I need to lie down.
The problem is that we are letting them get away with it.
Even here, how many actually read the testimony Senator Feinstein broke protocol to bring to us?
Ignorant sheep with no critical thinking.
I seriously doubt that Putin believed that he wouldn’t get the kinds of attention he has received. He’s not going to come out and announce it obviously on Sputnik, but he had to know that sooner or later, the intelligence services would be onto him. It doesn’t matter too much as far as he’s concerned because he’s at war with the United States and Western Europe. It’s not a conventional war; it’s a war waged with misinformation. The objective isn’t to kill; it’s to confuse and create doubt among people about the legitimacy of their own political system. It’s a type of war we were absolutely unprepared for - and still aren’t.
Career intelligence officials can only do so much. They’re not the ones who make the most important decisions. Trump and the Republicans are now politicizing the agencies that exist to protect us against Putin. They’re actually helping Putin to undermine trust and confidence in these institutions.
When Putin sees this, it must seem like an opportunity that’s too good to pass up. It’s an opportunity to keep Americans distracted and fighting with themselves. Meanwhile, he can do his dirty work in Europe. Putin can support right wing nationalist movements in Europe, eroding support for international coalition building and further isolating America and making us less relevant. Europe is already highly skeptical of America under Trump, but were Putin to successfully push us off balance by successfully subverting a national election, that would be a devastating blow and it would be one that would have permanent consequences. Against Hillary Clinton, against Obama? That’s risking a massive retaliation. Against Trump and the GOP, well, they’re the ones who stand to benefit so they have common interests.
And what are you doing, O my wise shepherd, to prevent them from getting away with it?
Reading the testimony?
Wait, I don’t have to defend my position, I said “we”, not “they”.
That is the question. What can anyone do prior to the next election.
What more do we possibly have to know to understand that trump should be impeached and imprisoned? Short of ‘lock and load’ and raising my voice, all I have is my vote.
One wonders how often Presidents say, “Shit” at staff meetings.
“What the shit does Khrushchev think I’m going to do about his shitty missiles in that Cuban shit hole?” for example.
The right-wing talking point that ‘what people are upset about is the curse-word’ is a particularly silly one.
Of course what people are actually upset about is that a sitting President insulted a number of nations, and their citizens. The fact that he constructed his insult out of a curse word is purely incidental. It’s the insult that matters (and that proves him unfit for the office he holds).
Well, that and the whole “lets get more Norwegians instead of Haitians and Africans” thing.
Right–the particular insult the sitting President employed was racist in nature.
So there’s plenty to be upset about: the racism; the insult to other nations; and, sure, the vulgarity–which undoubtedly was destructive to the dignity of the office that 45 is currently soiling.
But the pretense currently being employed by those on the right—that people who object to what 45 said, have no right to object to it ‘because other Presidents have used curse words, too’—is disingenuous and integrity-free.