Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread

And to prepare me for my own run for President, if I’m wrong often enough.

I get that part. I was asking in the cosmic sense.

So that when I become President, you can all say you knew me when I was just a guy who was wrong all the time on the internet.

Is that a prediction?

Does this affect his score?

I think yes, so that would make him 5 out of 12. Good catch!

At heart, it’s to cajole **adaher **into greater awareness of the degree of his disconnection with conventional reality, to help him better align his own views of the political world with said reality, and to help him reduce the volume of wrongness he spews into the world.

And to point and laugh. Being perfectly honest about that. :wink:

nm

Actually, as a stand alone thread it does nothing of the sort. There have to be threads tracking other posters’ predictions. No one really knows if being right half the time is any good. It could be great, especially if you’re making difficult calls.

We can’t compare you directly to other posters, but we can compare you Nate Silver, PredictIt, PredictWise, RCP average, etc. And you are doing horribly when compared to those.

Also 50/50 is not a bad rate when predicting close elections e.g. Iowa Democratic caucus, but 50/50 is quite awful when predicting races that are blow outs. You predicted a candidate to win in the New Hampshire Republican primary who ended up with less than half the votes of the winner. That was an awful prediction with no basis in reality.

We all suck at predicting. I said that Jeb had it all wrapped up a year ago.

Technically, that only proves YOU suck at predicting. :wink:

Yuk yuk. And of course we all missed the easy opportunity to predict Trump would cruise through the primaries.

You ain’t the only one. I stuck my neck out there for JEB!, too. Egg meet face. :frowning:

Same here. Hardly anyone picked this as the year the asylum inmates would overpower the wardens.

Says the guy who was sure Trump would be irrelevant and wouldn’t win a single state.

Well maybe not, but I was pretty skeptical of his oft predicted collapse of support. I remember specifically everyone saying, once it’s down to 3 or 4 candidates he’s toast and I was like “wtf? He’s at 30%, people”.

If was better than prediction markets and Nate Silver that would be something. I’ll settle for being better than most SDMB posters.

I think we’ll always know you that way.

From the 2016 elections prediction thread (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=769126&page=2), post 71:

[QUOTE=me]

My predictions

Iowa: R Cruz, D Clinton
New Hampshire: R Trump, D Sanders
South Carolina: R Trump, D Clinton

And in the Democratic race, Sanders folds his tent less than a week after Super Tuesday.
[/QUOTE]

for six out of six. (With whether it becomes 6 of 7 or 7 of 7 to be determined in another eight days or so.)