Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread

Politics & Elections
261

Polling was sparse, but there were three different polls in the last week. Only one showed Cruz even coming in second.

On the Dem side I looked at the official OK elections site and found…


Name				Votes	Pct
BERNIE SANDERS			174,054	51.87%
HILLARY CLINTON			139,338	41.52%
MARTIN J. O'MALLEY		7,669	2.29%
KEITH JUDD			4,385	1.31%
MICHAEL A. STEINBERG		4,167	1.24%
STAR LOCKE			3,456	1.03%
ROQUE ROCKY DE LA FUENTE	2,485	0.74%

Keith Judd with a nice 4th place finish received more votes than Jeb Bush did on the republican side. Some oddball votes are bound to be cast in any election, but not at the levels we see here.

262

For comparison here’s the same seven people in New Hampshire:


Name		Votes	Pct
Sanders		152,181	60.98%
Clinton		95,324	38.20%
O'Malley	660	0.26%
De La Fuente	95	0.04%
Judd		44	0.02%
Locke		32	0.01%
Steinberg	21	0.01%

Oklahomans are either really strange or Keith Judd is really surging.

263

Maybe Oklahoma just has crazy more early voting?

264

adaher, did you make any predictions about yesterday’s contests (with a link, please :))? And do you have any for the contests over the next few weeks?

265

No, I had no idea what was going to happen.

I do have predictions for two primaries though:

Florida- Trump

Ohio- Kasich

Both of those are favored so I treat my own predictions with disdain.:slight_smile:

266

Pleasepleaseplease pick Trump to beat Clinton.

Thanks, bud, yer a pal.

267

Good predictions! You are up to 17 out of 29. Any further predictions for primaries in the next few weeks?

268

All the Clinton-Sanders races seem pretty straightforward, so I figure there probably won’t be any major upsets there. Time for me to get bold on the GOP side again though:

Arizona-Trump
Wisconsin- John Kasich
New York-Kasich
Maryland-Kasich
Pennsylvania-Trump
California-Kasich
New Jersey-Trump

269

Only one of those stands out to me as being somewhat crazy although I haven’t given it a ton of thought. What makes you think Kasich is going to beat Trump in his home state?

270

I don’t think being from a state is where an advantage comes from. Representing a state and already being popular with its voters is how a home state advantage happens. Trump just lives there. New York has a moderate Republican electorate that is tailor made for Kasich.

271

Emerson released a poll today confirming my suspicions about New York.

272

I am betting Trump wins New York but not sure I trust the Emerson guys. The poll was conducted March 14-16th and they felt it coherent to mention Kasich didn’t get a bounce from his March 15th win?

273

I think, but I can’t say for sure, that they are commenting on the differences between responses they collected on the 16th compared to those collected on the 14th and 15th.

274

Maybe. But the GOP side of that poll was a grand total of 298 likely voters. Seems pretty thin to try and interpret a one day old trend out of that.

275

That poll basically should have just read, “Adaher is WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!”

On the bright side, Kasich/Rubio combined are at 30 in the last California poll, with Trump at 38. So a Kasich win there isn’t entirely out of the question.

276

Adaher, I’m as surprised as you are about Kasich polling so poorly among NY Republicans. Heck, I used to confuse Kasich with Pataki.

277

It’s shocking that the people who selected a moderate Republican bridge-builder like Carl Paladino to be their candidate for governor are looking likely to support Donald Trump.

278

Why do you even make these predictions?

279

Nate Silver gives the Democratic candidate 374 electoral votes, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

http://samuel-warde.com/2016/03/nate-silvers-electoral-map-guaranteed-give-republicans-nightmares/

280

Trump as the nominee is nightmare enough. Clinton beating him is not making things worse.

Now show me a map where Clinton crushes Cruz or Kasich and then I’ll get a little scared.