If Cruz was nominated, he’d only win the Mormon belt.
The polls actually show Cruz behind, but competitive. At this point he’d do about as well as Romney.
adaher, what is your estimate of the probability that Cruz will be the nominee? How about Kasich?
Aw hell, I don’t know, because I have no idea what they’ll be thinking at a brokered convention. They may limit themselves only to the candidates running. If that occurs, I’d give Kasich the best chance in that scenario with Cruz a close second. But if they open up the floor to nominations from any source, it could be anybody. Names like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan get tossed around, but historically the best compromise candidates have often been someone no one would expect, like Lamar Alexander. I think there are literally at least 100 REpublican officeholders and former officeholders who would jump at the chance to win the nomination and have such a short campaign ahead of them. Actually, if I’m a Republican strategist, I look at one of those guys who fell short in previous primary campaigns but would have made formidable general election candidates. Like Jon Huntsman.
Not a 2016 prediction, but California’s minimum wage hike will not stand. Much like Vermont’s single payer attempt, it will be abandoned or delayed so long as to make no difference.
For those who don’t know, California increased minimum wage to $15/hr, phased in over six years. I predict that $15/hr will not be reached in six years, or ten years, barring unexpected inflation.
I found an interesting factoid out there that makes me wonder if the Democrats really have gone that far to the left:
In 2008, Hillary said:
She also said:
Even Obama (tho prodded) said:
Has the Democratic party moved that far to the left? I think Bill Maher is 1000% right on this issue. I know the Hillary at heart still would use those words but for how far-left the party’s base has moved. She does use the term “jihadism” which ultra-liberals and Obama won’t even use. But still.
This doesn’t seem to have anything to do with this thread (which is about adaher’s predictions); perhaps you should start a new one or find a thread that is related to the topic you want to discuss.
It could affect the election, and potentially enable a Cruz or Kasich, maybe even Trump win, so it is relevant. At least for November, esp. how a brokered convention is possible.
How is it relevant for adaher’s predictions? That’s what this thread is about.
No, just like everyone has been telling you for the past 9 months or so, regardless of his words Obama has perfectly happy to wage war against Islamist reaction. As for me, I could care less whether my President calls them “Islamist” or “extremnist” or whatever as long as he signs off on a drone strike blowing those dysgenics into smithereens.
As a side-note, I might add it’s quite fortunate that adaher is living in modern day United States making political predictions with his track record rather then in Zhou Dynasty China as the Royal Astronomer.
If Kasich voters were allowed to vote three times a piece he still would have lost.
Would you like to reevaluate your New York, Maryland, or California Kasich predictions?
With Wisconsin (wow, that was an awful pick, adaher), you’re up to 17 out of 30, unless I’ve miscounted somewhere.
Although you could make a case that at post #268 the thread mutated from actual predictions to adaher trying to convince himself that Kasich still has a chance.
So close.
17 out of 31 now. That NY pick was very silly.
Are you saying there’s more to New York than Manhattan? :eek:
Obviously, he meant New York County.
Another near miss.
I am very disappointed in Republican voters. I had hoped to the last that they’d come to their senses. In every previous cycle, liberals’ hopes that Republican voters were crazy and would nominate someone unelectable failed to come true. This time it did, and it’s about the most depressing thing I can imagine.