If not, don’t expect anyone else to be able to read your mind. Or want to.
That’s ruled out by the fact that Trump has built up enough momentum that stopping him will require conspicuous intervention from the GOP party establishment, and that such intervention will result in a large number of otherwise Republican voters staying home in disgust (best-case scenario) or voting for Trump and Trump-coattail-riding independents (if The YouTube Comment Thread That Walks Like A Man tears up his no-independent-run pledge). That makes holding the Senate hopeless and holding the House problematic.
Well no but on the other hand if one considers that my actual political views are pretty obvious and the context in which I use the term “cuckservative” (and especially variants such as “Kochservative”) not to mention that I explicitly stated at least twice in what sense I’m using them…
In first in the nation Iowa, the one poll that’s historically accurate there shows Trump far behind:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151
Trump’s high numbers, in the great majority of polls, reflect name recognition. His method of being more and more outrageous, to keep other candidates from getting noticed by low information GOP voters. can’t possibly work in caucus states, where it takes a lot of commitment to actually cast a ballot. And it will usually fall apart in days leading up to primaries, as voters notice there are other candidates.
The threat to the establishment is Ted Cruz.
Your last sentence is wishful thinking. But I hope your wishes come true.
No, your use is more nonsensical, applied as it is to a Republican who espouses political ideals not uncommon to Republicans. Maybe you find the near-rhyme and alliteration of “Koch” and “cuck” to be clever, or just want to co-opt the term as a generic pejorative. Whatever your motivation, it doesn’t change its origin, or my opinion that it’s a really childish insult.
That said, I’m happy to return the focus to chronicling adaher’s wrong predictions for posterity’s sake.
Well it’s true that part of the appeal is the coincidence of “Koch” and “cuck” as well as the desire to co-opt the term for the left, but it also is indeed applicable in an ideological sense to most Republican politicians who espouse ideals of patriotism and populism while cuckolding America for the interests of the plutocrats. and the ivory tower ideologues of the think tanks.
My early state primary predictions are final:
Iowa- Sanders, Cruz, Rubio 3rd
New Hampshire- Sanders, Kasich, Rubio 2nd
South Carolina- Clinton, Cruz, Rubio 2nd
Nevada- Sanders, Rubio
I include Rubio because I think it’s coming down to a 3-man race heading into Super Tuesday: Rubio-Cruz-Kasich. Trump will be irrelevant and won’t win a single state.
In the Democratic race, Sanders and Clinton are going to be grinding for delegates for a long time as well.
Michelle Bachman and Herman “ew-becky becky becky becky becky stan-stan” Cain are so much crazier than anyone in the current race. The candidates this time around are absolutely sane in comparison.
You’re very bullish on Rubio. It’s probably because you realize deep down that Kasich’s goose is cooked after New Hampshire (that’s a kind of ambiguous construction: I think Kasich’ll do well in NH, but poorly afterwards), and you realize Rubio is the best bet for Team Red.
FWIW, I don’t think Rubio will beat third in IA, NH, or SC. He still has a path to the nomination, but that’s hoping that the ‘establishment’ lane clears out. Kasich’s performance in NH will put some sand in those gears.
Interestingly, Rubio seems to being having a bit of a crisis of identity. He saw how much mileage Cruz and Trump were getting out of their mega-pessimism, and decided he wanted some of that, even though his brand was more focused on sunny idealism. Then he decided he was going to be the candidate you want to have a beer with, even though he’s a dweebish know-it-all that no one would ever want to have a beer with. I just don’t think it’s going to be his year. Ironically, the worst thing that could happen to his career is to be nominated. His best bet now is not to burn any bridges and regroup for a more serious effort in 2020 (or 2024, depending on how likely Clinton’s re-election is looking.)
No one wants to have a beer with him because he always sounds like a pre-recorded message. Like a grade school student who prepared for a presentation by staying up all night memorizing something from a book word-for-word, hoping that it would make people think he really understands it.
Regarding Trump’s current chances in Iowa:
Can we list this one too? It implies a prediction about the GOP nomination and November too:
By that logic, he’s also predicting Clinton and Rubio wins. So I’d say no, this is an implied hypothetical.
In less then a week we can start evaluating these predictions! I’m so excited!
Which war?
I’m with Do Not Taunt that the entirety of the post implies hypothetical election not an implied prediction of who wins.
Yes, I am not predicting a Kasich victory. That was just me trying to boost the guy.
You have an extremely non-receptive audience here, don’t you know? If you want to campaign for the guy, go find some people who might be willing to vote for him.
Support for Kasich might be higher here than in the real world, actually.
Yes - here, he has a supporter.