I assume an intentionally misspelled shortening of cuckservative?
Oh, OK. Learn something every day.
Even if it’s something you’d like to unlearn.
I’m adding a prediction to this thread:
Donald Trump will not win a single primary or caucus.
Answering the question we’ll be asking ourselves next summer: When did you realize that Trump had the nomination clinched?
If Trump does win IA and NH and SC, it’s over.
Rachel Maddow pointed out a few nights back that no Republican has ever had this big a lead in the polls this late in the year and failed to win the nomination. Not to say he can’t still fall short, but history is on his side.
This is the kind of straightforward prediction I like. None of this if A then B wishy washy business.
However, I’d like to ask you why you believe this.
Current RCP:
IA -> Trump -4.0 (to Cruz)
NH -> Trump +16.3 (Cruz and Rubio tied for second)
SC -> Trump +14.4 (to Cruz)
Do you think winning Iowa is going to give Cruz a ~15 point bump in both NH and SC? Or is there some other scenario that you think is more likely?
No. I think that Trump’s loss in Iowa will have a similar effect to Romney’s loss in Iowa in 2008. Romney lost to the Christian conservative candidate, and that allowed the nearly McCain to take NH. Romney did go on to win Wyoming and Michigan after that, but he was a stronger, more traditional candidate with lots of funding and broad acceptance within the party. Trump enjoys none of those advantages. He’s not trying that hard to campaign, he’s not spending a lot of money and his support in the party is very limited, possibly not a majority even under the best of circumstances.
So he lose Iowa to Cruz, and Christie wins NH(not a prediction yet, just a possible scenario). Where does Trump win after such disappointing finishes? And I do believe Christie would benefit most from a Trump fall, since they have similar approaches and ideology. Christie’s just within the bounds of the political rulebook while Trump doesn’t care. Bush could also win NH, as could Kasich and Rubio. But I just don’t think Trump takes NH if he doesn’t take IA.
That assumes their candidacies, especially in its relation to Iowa were equivalent. Romney was one among relative equals (Giuliani, McCain, and possibly Huckabee) in late 2007/early 2008 and needed to do well in Iowa as a candidate of the conservative part of the Establishment. TRUMP otoh has a healthy lead (the shitty Quinnipac poll not withstanding) over all the other candidates and his expectations aren’t as tied to Iowa but rather New Hampshire and South Carolina which is far more tailored towards his strengths (low turnout voters who obviously would show up more often in primaries and in cultural terms the populist Trump has far more of a resonance with ethnic Catholic blue collars in the Northeast or Scotch Irish Southern whites then with Midwestern types regardless of how conservative/liberal they are-there’s a reason why Trump is polling terribly in Yankee WASP descent areas like Mormon Utah)
That’s because both McCain and Romney were extremely strong candidates for NH-something that isn’t the case when the Establishment is divided among four candidates. And this ignores that Trump’s attractiveness is due to his unorthodoxy.
I find it rather ironic I have a higher opinion of the average Republican primary voter then you do. You seem to think that simply deluging the TV with “pollster tested” sleek ads is enough to sway voters while I think Republican voters will vote in their self interest regardless of ads. Indeed the brilliance of Trump’s strategy is that he’s exploded the idea that you need to spend huge amounts of money on expensive TV ads rather than just directly speak your mind via Twitter in an age when everyone and their grandmother are on the Internet.
Except that won’t happen.
Yes and that’s why Trump’s so popular. Christie just appears a piss-poor imitation of Trump in that regard especially with the baggage of Bridegate.
And that highlights the problem with the Establishment. All four of these Establishment candidates need to do well in New Hampshire and aren’t going to drop out before it which practically guarantees a Trump victory. Indeed with Cruz gobbling up the Tea Party/evangelical vote, its probable that none of the Establishment candidates will even come in second place.
Trump doesn’t need Iowa just like McCain.
Updating in the proper thread:
Are you *quite *sure about all of that, adaher?
Also gathered elsewhere, you can now safely bet there will NOT be a Republican sweep:
Don’t feel bad. It’s an intensely stupid portmanteau forged, as the link indicates, by the intellectual leading lights of sites like 4chan and Stormfront, popularized by angry men who find the term “RINO” too endearing and prefer their humiliation sexual, and regrettably repeated here on this board quite a bit lately, from one source in particular.
I don’t think you quite understand the context in which it’s used here.
It’s not quite on the same level as such base insults that are often used in partisan hack literature, in that it actually makes a (in my view) valid critique of the Republican Party.
RINO and cuckservative are completely different in their criticism, so much so that comparing them is completely useless.
That falls into the category of Pit trash talking, not a prediction.
Maybe contrasting them would be more useful. To me, they’re both derogatory labels for Republicans who (allegedly) lean left; the second just goes farther in implying a motive.
A RINO might be too liberal because he’s an agent provocateur, or a conservative who fell and hit his head one day, or (worst of all) because he’s a Republican who actually holds some of the loathsome ideals of the Left as his own. A “cuckservative” is too liberal because he’s a fool, a weakling, and a sexual masochist who either doesn’t know he’s being used or gets off on being humiliated.
Are you willing to state a prediction, then?
Right now it looks like a 50-50 race for the Presidency. But I probably will make a prediction as soon as the nominees become obvious. If any of the names on my list are the GOP nominee, then you can count me down already as predicting GOP sweep in 2016.
“If”? 
And do you believe I’ve been using the term in the exact same sense as the fellows on those forums?