Trump and Biden are both so politically radioactive that the race is going to be DeSantis vs Newsom.
Am I wrong? If so, why?
Because Republicans don’t like DeSantis and Democrats don’t like Newsom.
Biden is pretty well liked, as far as I can tell.
I think there are people in both parties waiting in the wings in case either of the front runners fall away. Newsom is a possibility, but there are others.
DeSantis is in the “pardon Trump on day 1” camp, which is going to be a problem for him.
Democrats like Biden and Republicans like Trump, so it’s probably going to be Biden vs Trump again.
Biden is only politically radioactive to people who live in a fantasy world where Trump is not a danger to the entire planet. I think many of the people still living in that fantasy land realize that Trump is radioactive, politically and otherwise, and are looking for an exit ramp, but DeSantis is actually a lightweight and his brief and waning political success in god’s green room is nowhere close to what is required to win the presidency. I expect Biden will get the Democratic nomination because he’s doing a really good job as president. It’s pretty easy to see we’ll get about the same from Biden in a second term while every other potential Democratic opponent is big question mark.
That is based on the idea that events in the next year don’t significantly change the picture. It is only a little over a year until the conventions, mere months until the primary circus begins. I think the odds favor some significant event popping up in the next year that will make a difference. Except that I have to consider that the world has gone crazy because we’re talking about two men well into their geezerhood running for president, and here we are, it’s happening now, so if that’s not enough to turn people off maybe nothing will.
Neither Gavin Newsom, nor any other Democrat outside of a couple of fringe candidates, have given any indication that they intend to challenge Biden for the nomination. So that would be one way you’re wrong.
So yes, OP, you are wrong. Totally and completely wrong.
But a lot more Democrats like Biden or at least are willing to tolerate him. There are Republicans actively fighting against Trump.
But I’d say question is about independents. And they seem to hate Trump a lot more than Biden. The only Biden haters I see are Republican.
So, sure, the contest will likely be anti-Trump people vs. anti-Biden people. But there seem to be more of the former.
And, those people almost certainly consider any Democratic nominee to be “radioactive”. So not much point worrying about them.
So, he’s just assuming that Trump will be convicted? I wish I had his optimism.
Yes. Extraordinarily so.
Why? Because Biden is not even a little bit politically radioactive. Where did you get that idea? I’m not expecting an answer as you don’t seem to ever return to your political threads.
Yeah, I’m not sure it’s worth answering, given this history. I’ll say that Biden isn’t radioactive to Democrats and will cruise to the nomination, so the OP is wrong on that front at least. Given the internal fighting in the GOP these days, with everyone trying to out-crazy each other, who knows what will happen.
The last time you started a political thread, you never returned. That is your prerogative, but I think it’s bad form. At least come back and acknowledge that maybe you’re wrong or the other posters have given you something to think about, or something.
The incumbent you have to be seen as a pretty big F-up by their own party to not be renominated and Biden is too much of a conceited ass to consider not running if he can still be propped up (ditto for Trump BTW). As for the Pub side, if you are Trump-lite (like DeSantis) then why would anyone vote for you in the primary and not for Trump himself? And if you are one of the moderate Republicans (I think I counted 6 at the national level) you better hope the Pubs pull their heads out of their butts and vote for you … which I hold out no hope for.
Biden’s radioactive with Trump’s base, so he definitely will fail to win the GOP nomination. And Trump’s radioactive with pretty much every Democrat, so he will definitely fail to win the Dem nomination.
But Democrats are overwhelmingly behind Biden, and the alleged GOP challengers are afraid to say anything remotely critical about Trump or say what they’d do that he wouldn’t. Which tells you where the power lies within that party.
So unless Trump is in prison or drops dead, it’s going to be Biden v. Trump. And it might well be that way even if Trump is in prison.
It’s indeed possible that the current front-runners will be de-throned.
But I think the starting point is the polls. They distill everything we know about the state of the race. Might the state of the race change? Sure. But I don’t see how I could even half-way reliably predict which direction it will go.
The polling averages seem to me to be the political equivalent of stock prices. The current price of a stock (multiplied by the number of shares outstanding) distills all the currently known, rational and irrational, information about that company’s future value. That’s why the best economists, who are also stock market experts, are skeptical about stock-picking.
It might.be objected that this leaves us too little to talk about. I personally still find lots to say, but there could be an issue there.
The OP is wrong, unless we’re talking about Hunter Biden for some reason. And even then I wouldn’t cal him “politically radioactive.” Just unelectable.
This is the crux of the matter.
I certainly wouldn’t vote for Hunter Biden. Nor would I vote for any of Trump’s children.
That’s really it - it’ll be Trump v. Biden, unless somehow, something about one of his trials derails that, in which case it’ll likely be DeSantis. v. Biden.
As far as the general election goes, it’s basically going to fall on the people who for some unfathomable reason consider there to be a decision between Trump & Biden that needs to be made. I’m not sure who these people are, or how their minds work, but they’re going to be the ones that decide the election one way or another. Most people however, have long since made up their minds about this.
Now if it’s DeSantis v. Biden, that middle group becomes a lot bigger I fear, as there are a lot of people who are essentially GOP voters, but who dislike Trump personally and are effectively holding their noses to vote for Biden because Trump himself is so personally odious as shown during his term. They likely don’t consider DeSantis to be quite so bad, because other than the odd news story about him, they don’t know him.
To be fair, nobody but a conceited ass would run for POTUS in the first place. There are degrees of course, but nobody humble would do a presidential campaign.