American Idol: Las Vegas Odds On Who Will Win

According to Norm’s column in a recent Las Vegas Journal, here are the odds of the winner in the current American Idol contest:

“Chris Daughtry, the bald rocker, is a narrow favorite over Mandisa Hundley in the “American Idol” competition, says John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas race and sports director. Daughtry is listed at 4-1 and Mandisa at 9-2. Odds for the others in the final 12: Ace Young, 5-1; Lisa Jackson, 6-1; Katharine McPhee, 8-1; Paris Bennett, 10-1; Elliott Yamin, 12-1; Kellie Pickler, 15-1; Taylor Hicks, 25-1; Bucky Covington, 35-1; Melissa McGhee, 40-1 and Kevin Covais, 100-1. Avello puts the odds up for entertainment purposes only, not wagering…”

Actually, I would give Paris Bennett better odds, and I think Kelli Pickler will do better (though I don’t think she has a chance to win), as well as I think Taylor Hicks will stay in longer.

So, for those watching the show, what do you think of the recent Las Vegas odds?

Hmm…although the thread title is correct, and Las Vegas certainly is ODD, could a mod please edit the title to ODDS? Thanks.

Ace is way too low and Kellie way too high. So is Taylor. And he’s already wrong about Melissa versus Kevin.

Chris is likely to win, which will justify all my negative feelings about this show. American Idol is hurting music, to paraphrase Marilyn Manson.

I might seek out albums by Katherine, Mandisa, or Elliott, depending on how they recover from this, but I’m as likely to buy a Chris Daughtry album as ram a knitting needle up my sinus. Which, some days . . .

Huh. Take the Taylor bet at 25-1. You’ll still probably lose, but the odds aren’t that low.

And Lisa’s last name is Tucker!

Hmm… I’m thinking it might not be all that unlikely, for someone who thinks of Marilyn Manson as an authority on music, to ram knitting needles up his sinus. :smiley:

According to a short bit on the Drudge Report yesterday, Simon Cowell’s picks for the top three (in no particular order) are: Chris, Taylor and the Pickler.

Hmm… I’m thinking it might not be all that unlikely, for someone who could read into my last post that I think of Marilyn Manson as an authority on music, to ram, um, knitting needles up his, um, sinus.

“:D”

I didn’t even realize Las Vegas took bets on this sort of thing.

What’s to prevent one of the producers (or one of the producer’s close relatives who they share some information with) from placing a bet? (and as with many of these sorts of bets, I can imagine it must be hard to police such insider betting)

I know that gambling never has and never will be completely logical, but…Mandisa is the second favorite? She’s shown no versatility, and one booming, high-energy song after another is going to wear her down. Make it to the round of 4, possible. Win…nope.

Elliott Yamin should also be higher. He’s looked really strong so far, and I don’t see any reason for him to be in danger right now.

Other than that…well, just picks yer horse and bets yer money, I guess. My pick right now is Chris, but I’m definitely not putting my life savings on it.

(Anyone else find it unusual that gamblers have a far greater stake in who wins American Idol than virtually everyone actually involved in the contest? :slight_smile: )

I’ve got the McPheever! My money would be on Katharine: great singing voice, appealing personality, smokin’ hot.

[QUOTE=Rigamarole]
I didn’t even realize Las Vegas took bets on this sort of thing.

QUOTE]

They don’t. This is a “for fun” odds by a real casino bookmaker. It is illegal to bet on things like this in Las Vegas casinos (ie Oscars) where someone has the inside track of the winners before the general public knows.

Well, in this case, American Idol is live. They’d have to be careful about when to shut down the betting, but they could still take action.

What’s been problematic is when they offered betting on things like Sruvivor & The Amazing Race and took bets after the show stopped, but before the final episode aired. IIRC, there was a case where one of the books got a ton of action, all on one contestant, from some small town in Iowa (or something) and shut it down. Might have been Big Brother.

Also, I’m not sure about the legality of Vegas taking bets, but the off-shore places sure do. They’ll take action on Oscars, presidential races, lots of stuff. My book currently has a line on what Brangelina will name their next baby.

Billy Bob is 100-1.
Louis de Pointe du Lac is 250-1.

Here are the odds from sportsinteraction.com on American Idol. They are given in “European Style” so that 10.00 really means 9-1 (the number is what is returned to you, so 1 returns 10.00, or you win $9.)

The best looking bet there to me is Paris at 10-1. These are much shorter than what the other guy posted.

Chris Daughtry
2.75

Katharine McPhee
5.00

Taylor Hicks
5.50

Elliot Yamin
8.00

Ace Young
10.00

Lisa Tucker
10.00

Mandisa
10.00

Paris Bennett
11.00

Kellie Pickler
13.00

Bucky Covington
51.00

Kevin Covais
81.00

It’s possible. Kelly Clarkson is essentially the small white version of Mandisa; she pretty much screams every song. Worked for her.

He’s ugly and boring. Like it or not, that’s a huge strike against him.

I would be careful about misinterpreting the way Vegas sets odds. Having better odds than another contestant does not necessarily mean you are certain to last longer. To use an example, it’s possible Paris Bennett could win; it’s also possible she could finish seventh. On the other hand, I don’t think Taylor Hicks has any real chance of winning, but I think it very, very unlikely that he will be voted off any sooner than fifth. So while I would give Paris better odds for winning the entire competition, if you made me bet on who would last longer, I’d likely bet on Taylor.

If this is all about who has the best chance of winning, then yeah, it makes sense to put the big risks above the dependable-but-not-specacular performers. (It wouldn’t have suprised me if Scott Savol was dead last or even off the charts. He had middle-America appeal and a considerable number of really hardcore fans, but no bloody fershlugginer way was he winning it all.) If that’s the case, though, Paris Bennett should be higher, because she’s shown tremendous potential with just one or two off nights, and she doesn’t have the baggage a bulky, somewhat awkward, one-note Mandisa has.

I dunno…I just find it a bit unusual that a contest where a third place finisher (Jasmine Trias) became a huge local celebrity while the winner (Fantasia Barrino) is a virtual nobody, there can be enough interest on who wins this thing to have betting lines.

I have heard about a guy who does remarkably well in determining who will win each season by how often each voting line gives a busy signal.

I don’t care who wins, but I’ll be happy if Ace stays on a while…I don’t care about his singing but he certainly is…enjoyable to look at.