Arab gas increases = potential 'final' war?

I was doing something unusual for me the other day – thinking. I was considering the sudden increase in fuel prices because of the Arabic Consortium’s decision to get rich even faster, thinking about the prediction of the ‘war to end all wars’ that is supposed to come at the end of 2000 years – which ends on Jan 1, 2001. Predictions that the war will be in the Middle East and all of the nations of the world will join in.

Not one to be a firm believer in such prophecies, I did consider the possibility that the Arabic nations are working on committing suicide by being overtly greedy and not handling their enormous power very well. I considered the point that they had not ‘grown into’ their current power and wealth the way the other major powers in the world have grown into theirs and considered their potential for not having ‘matured’ much in the short time they have had from being a 3rd world nation, with much squabbling among themselves and then being thrown into near super power by the discovery of their oil fields.

I considered America, which has shut down most of its own Texas wells and others and buys much of the Arabic crude, of International banks being stupid enough to base their investments on the volatile prices of crude, of the English, already paying enormous fuel prices and the Russians, caught in financial turmoil and not needing any more hardships. I considered Japan, already functioning as economically as possible, then the combined European Nations struggling with increased fuel costs. I tossed Australia in there also because their fuel prices are high also.

Normally, when one nation provides a needed product to the rest of the nations and then gets greedy and starts extortion, it always leads to one thing. War. Someone or some group gets thoroughly pissed off, goes in and bombs the shit out of the offensive nation and takes what was once restricted after killing off the majority of the local population.

With the Arabic nation being mainly Moslem, that does not make them exactly popular with the rest of the world in general because they mix religion and politics. Not all Moslems were pleased when Dessert Storm took place during their religious holiday and they were not all that pleased that fellow Moslems were slapped with sanctions that caused them to starve. Curiously, they seemed to have little sympathy for the nation which was invaded by Sadaam and seem somewhat unconcerned that he happily slaughters everyone who disagrees with him.

This indicated that if the Arabic nations are attacked, then virtually all Moslems will join in the fray. This will shortly escalate into major war. (Even WW2 started out small.) Sooner or later, someone will start tossing in nukes, though it probably will not be America, England or Russia and most likely Pakistan or France or one of the Middle Eastern nations who by now have Nuclear capability. Of course, Sadaam will cheerfully release all of his still hidden biological weapons and the Chinese, with a major chunk of surplus population they want exterminated, will hop in.

Anyone else think the Arabic nations are starting to get real close to provoking a war? They wrecked the American economy in the 1970s, which forced the US to develop smaller cars. Well, after some time, fuel prices dropped and, Americans being somewhat stupid in some areas, promptly started churning out 8 and 10 mpg SUVs and luxury cars again. The fuel prices went up and the economy staggered slightly. Then they dropped again and people became complacent. Especially after the Dessert Storm show of force. I suggested ages ago, that a good way to screw up the US is to wait and drop fuel prices, let the industry start churning out gas guzzlers again, then jump the prices up and plunge the country into economic crisis. Now, with our stock boom and our construction expansion, plus the increase in gas guzzlers, a massive fuel ‘shortage’ could do massive damage to us.

Russia would love a war, because, as a slogan stated in the 1960s, ‘war is good for the economy.’ Plus it would settle some of the political turmoil and drain off surplus population they have to contend with. We here in America have all of these great new lethal toys we’re just waiting to try out and the Brits have a few they’d like to test also. Plus Pakistan is just itching to dump a nuclear missile on anyone and France has been testing their nuclear weapons for ages against all international bans.

The way I figure it, if suddenly the new wealthy in America discover that they cannot drive their $30,000 SUVs, their $80,000 Hummers, their $60,000 boats, afford their new homes and have their investments start screaming for the bottom of the page, they will promptly encourage the government to ‘send the boys over’ to kick some Arabic ass. (The majority of the newly rich are above mandatory draft age anyhow.)

The goal will be to gain control over the oil fields through a mix of the super powers and regulate the flow of crude at a designated and affordable rate. Blasting the Arabs back into the age of camels and sword fights would be considered a necessary evil.

Think this is possible so long as the Arabic Nations continue to screw with the oil prices? Most other nations already pay higher fuel prices than in America so dramatic increases would hurt their economies faster than ours and piss them off even more.

Someone will act if it gets too tight. (Look at how the French sank the Rainbow Warrior which threatened to get too close to their nuclear military tests and then defied attempts to prosecute the spies by the US.) Someone will send in an attack if their national security is threatened. Any atrocities can be sorted out later, after the war, like what has been going on concerning WW2.

What do you think?


What? Me worry?’

Hey, just to trho fuel on the fire, consider Chechnya.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/Libs/PCL/Map_collection/commonwealth/Chechnya.jpg

Look at how close it is to the middle east. Now that they seem to be wrapping up their war against the rebels, they have a large contingent of their army very close to the middle east.
Just thought I would throw that in.

BTW, I was throwing, not trhoing fuel on the fire.

Let me reply to your first sentence.
You don’t think much and you still aren’t thinking, Rainbow. Your positions on world issues, economics and American ideology are filled with faulty logic. I’m amazed that that you can type, let alone create a paragraph.

Go debate issues you understand, like- “why I like shiny round objects”

What is this mysterious organisation? Do they have a web site?

The high petrol prices in the UK are due to taxes imposed by the UK Government, not to high prices charged by the oil-producing nations (of which the UK is one).

I don’t have a problem with Muslims. Do you?

Presumably because they got caught in the meringue barrage (© George Papoon). You can’t always rely on the spell cheque.

They didn’t during Desert Storm.

Russia couldn’t afford to have a major war. They can’t even afford to pay their soldiers’ wages during peacetime.

Perhaps you could post a quote from the relevant Pakistani Government official to back up this extraordinary claim?

This is the reverse of the truth, as you have already suggested. Those countries with higher petrol prices are less dependent on petrol (e.g. smaller cars, better public transport) and so would be hurt less.

I think it’s their oil. If the US wants it, it has to buy it off them. I think they are entitled to try to maximise the revenue from their natural resources, as every other country does with its natural resources. If the US economy is particularly vulnerable to oil price shocks, which it seems to be, the solution is to try to reduce dependency on oil or to find alternative supplies. It is not to invade the whole of the Middle East.

Why, thank you ** Mary Harts Legs**. I do amaze myself sometimes.

Considering the fact that your comments come from your rabid, anti-American little brain, I will give them the respect they deserve and flush them down the toilet with the rest of the crap.


What? Me worry?’

I was doing something unusual for me the other day – thinking.”
“I was considering the sudden increase in fuel prices because of the Arabic Consortium’s decision to get rich even faster, thinking about the prediction of the ‘war to end all wars’ that is supposed to come at the end of 2000 years – which ends on Jan 1, 2001. Predictions that the war will be in the Middle East and all of the nations of the world will join in.”

Ah, predictions. They can be so vague, that you can apply them to anything with the gift of hindsight.

“Not one to be a firm believer in such prophecies”
Well, your post is almost justifying the one you’re about to describe

“With the Arabic nation being mainly Moslem, that does not make them exactly popular with the rest of the world in general because they mix religion and politics.”

Ah, here it is. The xenophobic line. I’m sure everyone was waiting for it.
“ Not all Moslems were pleased when Dessert Storm took place during their religious holiday and they were not all that pleased that fellow Moslems were slapped with sanctions that caused them to starve. “
Apart from the Saudi’s, who supported the U.N. forces, and the Kuwaiti’s who I am sure were glad to see it happen.
Not to mention Syria.
“Curiously, they seemed to have little sympathy for the nation which was invaded by Sadaam”

see above. All the OPEC countries were worried about it.
“ and seem somewhat unconcerned that he happily slaughters everyone who disagrees with him.”

Yeah, those Iranians love him.

“This indicated that if the Arabic nations are attacked, then virtually all Moslems will join in the fray. This will shortly escalate into major war. (Even WW2 started out small.)”
Oh, yeah, the invasion of another country is miniscule.

“ Sooner or later, someone will start tossing in nukes, though it probably will not be America, England or Russia and most likely Pakistan or France or one of the Middle Eastern nations who by now have Nuclear capability. Of course, Sadaam will cheerfully release all of his still hidden biological weapons and the Chinese, with a major chunk of surplus population they want exterminated, will hop in.”
Ah yes, the chiniese would love to have half their land wasted for the next 500 years. What would they need it for anyway?

“which forced the US to develop smaller cars. “
Like that’s a bad thing?
“Well, after some time, fuel prices dropped and, Americans being somewhat stupid in some areas, promptly started churning out 8 and 10 mpg SUVs and luxury cars again.”
Well, at least you’ve got something right so far.
“ The fuel prices went up and the economy staggered slightly. Then they dropped again and people became complacent. Especially after the Dessert Storm show of force. I suggested ages ago, that a good way to screw up the US is to wait and drop fuel prices, let the industry start churning out gas guzzlers again, then jump the prices up and plunge the country into economic crisis.”

Read: NANANa, I told you so.
“Russia would love a war, because, as a slogan stated in the 1960s, ‘war is good for the economy.’”
Oh yeah, they are so financially stable at the moment, they could really afford it………

“ Plus it would settle some of the political turmoil and drain off surplus population they have to contend with.”
Where do you get this from?
“ We here in America have all of these great new lethal toys we’re just waiting to try out and the Brits have a few they’d like to test also. Plus Pakistan is just itching to dump a nuclear missile on anyone”
Wrong. The only time Pakistan has ever hinted at nuclear attack is at India, and then only after being provoked.

“and France has been testing their nuclear weapons for ages against all international bans. “
Well, its not like the French will do anything we ask them to anyway……

“The way I figure it, if suddenly the new wealthy in America discover that they cannot drive their $30,000 SUVs, their $80,000 Hummers, their $60,000 boats, afford their new homes and have their investments start screaming for the bottom of the page, they will promptly encourage the government to ‘send the boys over’ to kick some Arabic ass. (The majority of the newly rich are above mandatory draft age anyhow.) “

I’ll let that speak for itself
“The goal will be to gain control over the oil fields through a mix of the super powers and regulate the flow of crude at a designated and affordable rate. Blasting the Arabs back into the age of camels and sword fights would be considered a necessary evil.”
What, so you think they’d take over the Arab states, kill most of the local population, and then drill the oil themselves?
“Think this is possible so long as the Arabic Nations continue to screw with the oil prices? Most other nations already pay higher fuel prices than in America so dramatic increases would hurt their economies faster than ours and piss them off even more.”

Its their product. Its on their land. Its not their responsibility if our economies are dependent on it. If they have to drive up the price, (as long as its within trade agreements), their ain’t nothing we can do.
“What do you think?”
that you’re a dimwit. Aren’t you one of the Newtons Apple puppet theatre?

J

I’m a maniac, a maa-ianac thats for sure,
ANd Im dancin’ like I never did be-foor"
Groundskeeper Willy

Oh, what the hell. I’ll pile on, too.

Your description of OPEC’s current behavior is exactly wrong. It’s a long story having to do with refinery problems in California, a faster than expected recovery among the Asian economies, late pipeline openings, flooding in Venezuela and a bunch of other stuff, but essentially here’s what happened: OPEC miscalculated when they agreed on production cuts last year, and it’s members are not happy with the over-fast rise in crude prices.

Why not? Well, for one thing a price too high endangers the economies of OPEC’s customers, which will hurt OPEC members in the long run. For another, high prices drive conservation and exploration, neither of which helps pricing in the long run.

In fact, today’s New York Times quotes Saudi Oil Minister Ali al- Naimi as saying that OPEC ought to guard against “any disequilibrium that may negatively impact the world’s economic growth” and hinting that the cartel will vote to increase output at its meeting next month.

Livin’ on Tums, vitamin E and Rogaine

Rainbow,
I always appreciate a dimwit who thanks you after they’ve been insulted.

As this thread lengthens, hopefully you notice that your impressions are those of an ignoramus/jackass.

My opinions are not retrieved from a small or a rabid anti-American mind, more often derived from an individual who cannot tolerate those that speak loudly on issues they know nothing about.

However, rant onwards as I know you will, simpleton.
P.S.- You are very welcome again.

[Moderator Hat ON]

All right, Mary Hart’s Legs, Rainbowcsr, the rest of you, this is not the BBQ Pit. Quit pissing on each other or I’ll start deleting posts or throw this whole topic into the Pit. Got it?

[Moderator Hat OFF]

“Arabic Consortium”?!? Since when is Venezuela (in South America, if you didn’t know) an Arabic nation?

A hint for you, Rainbowcsr: the OPEC nations and the Arab nations are NOT one and the same group. (Oh, and Moslem is not the same as Arab, either – ask an Indonesian.) There’s some overlap, of course, but there are OPEC countries that aren’t Arab and Arab countries that aren’t in OPEC.

To me, the interesting thing about the current increase in oil prices is what hasn’t happened.

Various Middle East complications (abetted, in one instance, by domestic complications) have caused drastic oil price increases on three previous occasions: 1973-4 (the Arab embargo following the Yom Kippur War), 1979-80 (Iran drastically cutting their oil sales after Khomeini’s ascension), and 1990 (Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, shortly on the heels of the Exxon Valdez spill).

In all three instances, our economy immediately tanked.

This time, our economy is sailing along as if nothing had happened - despite all our Suburban Utility Vehicles and whatnot.

Something different is going on these days, economically speaking. I have no idea what, but then neither does Greenspan, so I’m in good company here. But the old models seem to be about as relevant as manuals on typewriter repair.

Well, RTFirefly, modesty probably should require me to keep my mouth shut, but these strange economic times are a sign that my plans for world conquest near fruition. I am spending so much time on the computers these days because my hyper-intellect has devised logic bombs that will shut down or destroy all governmental computer systems and most of those in the private sector. Then my loyal Si-Fan and allied members of the Bavarian Illuminati will take over all countries on National Mackerel Day and proclaim me “Supreme Panjandrum of the Universe and His Right Reverend, The Most Excellent Peyote Coyote.”
BWAAAA-HAAAA-HAAAA-HAAAA-HAAA!!!

In reply to why our economy hasn’t tanked, give it some time. When fuel prices go up as drastically as they have in the last few months, you can be sure the price of consumer goods will go up in response. Practically everything is transported by trucks in the US. If it cost a trucking company $100 to transport a load of lettuce from point a to point b last year, and this year it costs $150, it makes sense that to stay pofitable the company will raise its price. Since the shipper has to pay more, he will raise the price of lettuce to stay profitable. Now the retailer has to pay more so he will raise retail prices and you will pay more for lettuce. However, it takes a while for these things to happen.
In reply to why OPEC is not too happy about the sudden increase in crude prices: The US still has quite a lot of oil in the ground. Unfortunately for us, it is more expensive for us to get it to refineries. When imported crude is under ~$20 per barrel, it is cheaper to buy that than pull it out of our fields. Drive around the Permisan Basin near Odessa TX or the Ardmore fields around Healdton OK and you will see about one in four wells actually pumping. They are not shut down because there is no oil there, but because at low prices it is not profitable to pump it. Every increase in price makes more wells profitable, so they are brought online. Increase in supply will eventually bring prices back down, but again it takes time.

“You can be smart or pleasant. For years I was smart.
I recommend pleasant.”
Elwood P. Dowd

I dunno, PUNdit. A good chunk of the increase happened a year ago, with no negative consequences yet. If things are still sailing along in February of 2001, then we really have flipped through the looking glass into some economic alternate universe.

Rufus- maybe my memory is wrong, but I seem to recall that the recession of '73-'74 began before the OPEC problems, the recessions of '79-'80 began at the same time as Khomeni’s rise, and the recession of '91-'92 occurred a good six months after the final pies had been thrown in Dessert Storm; so my opinion would be that high oil prices can be an excaberating influence, but not the sole determiner of the U.S. economy.

I think that’s even more true today, when so much of the economy is tied into service and information technology- a jump in the price of oil has less overall influence upon the costs of American goods because we’re no longer so heavily tied into production and manufacturing (leaving that stuff up for Mexico and South-East Asia).

Personally, I think the next major economic crisis will come along when some major investor realizes how overinflated tech stocks and values are, and a minor dump-off turns into massive profit-taking turns into a crash of proportions unseen since 1929. But then, I guess I’m just envious of all of the tech stock multi-millionaires when I consider myself lucky to turn $3000 of stock investements into $3001.

Oh, and as to the OP- yes, the Middle East is a tinderbox which could spark a massive Global Armageddon Final War. It’s been that way for about forty years now, so I’m not real convinced that it’s coming upon us any day now.


JMCJ

Winner of the Mr. & Mrs. Polycarp Award for Literalizing Cliches for knowing an actual atheist in a foxhole.

SEMI RELATED HIJACK!

Buy gold now, trust me. Its going back up very soon.

Platinum and Palladium are running a little low these days, and gold prices have been on a steady rise since Nov.

BUY GOLD NOW!

HIJACK OVER!

rainbowcsr, are you by any chance a member of an ethnic group that comes from the same part of the world as these Arabic Consortium people that you are mad at?

Um … why will the 2000 years that supposedly culminate in the war-to-end-all-wars be over on 1-Jan-2001?

Middle East: I believe that Israel threatens the world peace most these days. Oil! Oil is out in a few years anyway. New types of car’s etc.

Maybe you americans should have been invaded by Japan in 1941. You seams to go to war in most places (good and bad), but if you had a war in your own country, and many of you’re own sivilians had been killed, maybe you haven’t been so “high”. Maybe you will be invaded in the future, and maybe the invaders will kick the living daylight out of you. Kill sivilians, rape women, etnic clensing etc.
Maybe you wouldn’t be so quick to pull the trigger.

USA is a superpower today, but nothing last forewer. Read history.