Arizona Senate race: Sinema v McSally

Politics & Elections
#1

Both the more centrist of their respective primaries, not likely to be perceived as a proxy for or against Trump.

Obviously much will depend on the overall sentiment for or against the party in charge in a state with a baseline GOP partisan lean, but Trump only won by 3.5% there.

I’m thinking Sinema can box McSally in. Paint herself as someone willing to reach across and get things done, even when it is a policy that began with Trump, but still a fighter against those things that Arizonians do not approve of, and make McSally either defend those things (to placate the Trump supporters who are not so sure she is pure enough) or come out against those things (and fail to placate the same group).

#2

It’ll be interesting to see if Trump can shut up about McCain. Trump continuing to attack John and/or Meghan might get some voters who often sit midterms out to the polls to vote against the Republicans.

#3

There is limited polling on this race already, but all of it predates the candidates actually winning their primaries. Sinema has a single digit lead in all three polls.

Also, there’s a PredicIt market. McSally has the slightest of leads, but it’s pretty much a coin flip.

#4

Of the three R candidates on the primary she seemed the most moderate, but kept running radio (and I presume TV) ads where she was cozying up to Trump with things like, “Build the wall . . . yada yada and Bring back jobs yada yada . . .” and finishing up with Dear Leader himself intoning, “I like Sally McSally… she’s tough.” I found it difficult to stomach voting for her; I have not looked to see if she is walking some of that back.