Baseball Thread July 2008

The Game Room
21

AL Central is not weak, not like the NL West, or the entire NL for that matter.

If the Sox can stay healthy, I honestly think they can win the division. The Twins just won’t go away, and the Tigers are really heating up. What the hell happened to the Indians? Pre-season, I predicted the Tigers to win it all (Tigers v. Cubs in the WS). My thoughts are that if they don’t make it up now (just before the All-Star break), then they won’t catch. I don’t think the Sox are going to break 100 games in the W (or any team in the AL Central for that matter), so the Tigers are just going to miss it. Hopefully, the Twins can hold off the Tigers.

White Sox are on a 6 game tear with a revenge sweep against the Cubs. The Cubs are certainly looking vulnerable. I’m not sure the Sox will make it past the playoffs, because everyone is still underperforming (at least for average, except for Ramirez, AJ and Dye.) Sox need to trade Uribe (I thought it was going to be Crede), and they need a huge bat or they need some middle relief. I’ll say middle relief, hoping that Danks can maintain the low ERA, Burhle continues to return to form, and the occasional gaffes by Contreras and Floyd are once a month occurences. It’s still anyone’s game in the Central.

The Cubs are one Ryan Dempster injury away from a free fall (either that or he continues to stink up the field like he did last Friday (which again might be a one time thing)).

22

Well, they did change their name. Apparently the Devil part was the problem.

To me the Rays are a godsend. I grew up a Mets fan and got the requisite hatred of the Yankees with it. I was depressed in the 1998 when it seemed like they couldn’t lose no matter how many runs they were behind in a given day. I was numb in 2001 when Gonzalez’s single gave me feeling back. Crushed in 2003 when Pedro blew the lead, and ecstatic at the Sox’s revenge the next year.

I was, in essence, a defacto Red Sox fan for they were my only chance at downing the evil empire. This was fine when the Red Sox fans were lovable losers, but the fortunes of Boston have changed of late. There is an attitude that prevails now that Boston is the best of everything, and that cockiness isn’t something I can endorse (It is fine for Met fans though). Living here now doesn’t help. They have won enough championships for now, time for someone else’s turn. I don’t dislike the Red Sox, (unlike say the Patriots) but I can’t root for them.

So I’m left with the Jays, Orioles, and Rays as the choices of teams to ensure the Yankees don’t make the playoffs. I don’t like supporting incompetence. It annoys me when teams are run badly, but succeed anyway, so that eliminates the Jays (Sorry RickJay) and the Orioles (though they are a bit better now). The Rays have restored hope. A likeable well run small market team that can take on the Yankees, and will be a contender for years. Now, if we just get that kind of management trust in charge of the Mets.

23

Do you think the Sox should take a stab at Bonds?

24

Well, considering we’ve already had 19 players on the disabled list and a revolving door to the Memphis minor league team, I’m not sure anyone is left to be injured. That we’re hanging in there half way through the season with the number of players that have gone down, is really quite delightful.

As I said in the June thread, I’ll be at Busch on Friday for the first Cards/Cubs game. I’ll be down the first base line in the club seats. You’ll be able to pick me out, I’ll be wearing red.

25

Crippled? That’s the best you can come up with? CRIPPLED? We’ve been fooking wracked! Maimed! Pummeled!

But yeah, once Furcal, LaRoche, Kuroda and Penny are back at form, the Snakes are going down, and hard. Who knew Furcal was that much of a linchpin to the Dodgers?

On the up-side, Young’s injury will actually benefit us. :smiley:

26

Now you’re just rubbing it in.

My prediction, based on absolutely no experitse, is the Cards and Cubs battle for first until close to the end of the season, but the Cards settle for the wild card. If Wainwright comes back soon and Mulder (recently back from the dead) moves into the starting lineup and pitches them to a few wins, maybe they eke out a first-place finish.

27

You’re assuming Furcal’s coming back. I hope you’re right, but it doesn’t look to be any time soon.

If we could only sign Barry Bonds to get a power bat in the lineup…

28

Even as a joke…you are dead to me now.

29

People apparently care about the NL Central so let’s do that:

  1. CHICAGO 50-34

Apparently the Cubs are the NL’s best team, which would make them maybe fourth in the AL: sorry, but it’s true. The Cubs lead the NL in hitting and are third in pitching and would likely be better than 50-34 if it wasn’t for the fact they’ve been made to play 15 games against a better league, in which they’ve gone 6-9. Nonetheless, they look like the most solid team in the National League, and I am confident they will make the postseason, where they will choke.

Pleasant Surprise: Geovany Sato
Disappointment: Nobody really stands out.
Holy Shit: The Cubs’ team on base percentage is 32 points above the league average. If they were to keep that up it would be the first time since the Big Red Machine an NL team had an on base percentage that far above the league.

  1. ST. LOUIS 48-37

The most bitter rivalry in sports that absolutely nobody cares about outside of the two cities involved has a chance to get interesting this year as the Cards are chasing the Cubs. St. Louis has solid pitching, although they’re not getting anything reliable from lefthanded relief. The holes are in the lineup, where the cards have some weaknesses that aren’t replicated in the Cubs’ 1-8 slots. Albert Pujols is putting up more ridiculous numbers, of course.

Pleasant Surprise: Everyone else will say Rick Ankiel, but who’s this Todd Wellemeyer guy?
Disappointment: I think the Cards were probably hoping for more than five homers by now from Chris Duncan.
Holy Shit: I guess the Glaus-for-Rolen trade worked out for the Cardinals, which I didn’t expect.

  1. MILWAUKEE 45-39

In all the ooh-ooh about the Cardinals and Cubs everyone’s forgotten about the Brewers. Maybe that’s justified, as despite their record the Crew has actually allowed a few more runs than they have scored. The Crew hits homers, but don’t get on base so good, and beyond Manny Parra it’s a thin rotation. I think they’ll fall away.

Pleasant Surprise: The aforementioned Manny Parra.
Disappointment: I guess Bill Hall isn’t going to come back.
Holy Shit: Russell Branyan: 11 homers 18 RBI in 87 at bats.

  1. HOUSTON 40-44

Houston isn’t really all that good at anything, except stealing bases, which is the least useful skill to have when you don’t do anything else well. Lance Berkman is a huge stud but beyond that this team is most guys in their 30s who’ve gone to Houston to play out the string. Roy Oswalt’s sudden proclivity to give up gopher balls is probably a fluke; expect him to return to form.

Pleasant Surprise: Nobody, really. I guess Berkman’s hitting even better than you’d expect.
Disappointment: I bet the statistic that most disappoints Houston is Miguel Tejada’s actual age.
Holy Shit: Boy, this is one crappy bunch of catchers, huh? When Humberto Quintero goes 10-for-41 with no power and he’s your BEST hitting catcher, it might be time to consider bringing in some other options.
5. PITTSBURGH 39-44

The Pirates have been relentlessly bad for so long now that I am sure Pittsburgh fans are starting to lose interest in the team. The new ballpark may be the only reason they aren’t completely bottoming out in attendance. However, it’s an interesting club, in that they’re actually very good on offense, but are getting killed in pitching. That’s frustrating, but I’ve always thought teams in that position were in a better position to improve; after all, at least the Pirates have a pretty clear weakness to address, as opposed to teams like the Nationals, who are awful at everything, or the Blue Jays, who are locked into big contracts, or a team like the Mets who aren’t really good or bad enough at anything that you know what to fix next. Having said all that, what I don’t understand is HOW the Pirates score so many runs when they’re below the league average in slugging and getting on base. That’s really weird, and suggests - horrifying though it sounds - that they may actually be much worse than their record.

Pleasant Surprise: Ryan Doumit or Xavier Nady
Disappointment: Can you believe Freddy Sanchez won a batting title once? Fairly recently?
Holy Shit: You know, I hadn’t even noticed Matt Morris ended up in Pittsburgh this year. I guess he’s toast. It’s funny how when you follow a sport some players get your notice, but if they’re not on teams that are in front of you a lot you sort of miss out on what they’re doing and they show up suddenly. Matt Morris is like that; I never really noticed he’d fallen apart.

  1. CINCINNATI 39-46

Cincinnati is the Matt Morris of teams; I almost forgot the FRANCHISE even existed. They haven’t been relevant for eons, but haven’t been awful enough to be comical, like the Royals. They’ve got some decent players but more bad than good and beyond that I don’t know what to tell you. I see no hope for this team anytime soon.

Pleasant Surprise: Edinson Volquez a rather easy choice in this category.
Disappointment: I’d like to cite Bronson Arroyo for the 2008 midseason pick, but award Ken Griffey the lifetime achievement award.
Holy Shit: Seriously, at what point are the major leagues going to give up on Corey Patterson? He was just an okay player at his absolute best and most of the time he sucks. He’s sucked even more than usual this year but I bet if the Reds give up some other fool will pick him up.

30

If the Brewers bring in Sabathia, that will make the NL Central very interesting. Of course, Eric Gagne is back to choke away games…

31

Rick, man, I have nothing but respect for your analytical skills (write a book! Seriously! I’d buy it!), but I think you have it wrong on this one. The Cubs have scored 453 runs, which is not just best in the National League; it’s second only to Texas in the entire sport. They lead not just the National League but the majors in batting average and on base percentage, are third in slugging percentage, and tied for first (with Texas again) in OPS. This they have done with Alfonso Soriano, arguably their second-best offensive player, missing more than a third of the season due to injury. Count Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson as one two-headed centerfielder, and every single Cubs regular is a better-than-league-average hitter according to OPS+. This is not true of any American League team, let alone three or more.

Their pitching has been in the top third of the majors.

Now, you can decide that all of these things are purely or mostly a function of inferior competition, but I don’t really know that I buy that - OPS+ is league-adjusted, after all, and should take some of that into account.

The Cubs fans are understandably loathe to say it out loud, but with a healthy Soriano this might be the best team in the majors. I expect that they will beat the Cardinals (and Brewers) by 5-7 games, barring catastrophic injury to either team.

32

Thanks, storyteller.

AL Central:

  1. CHICAGO 48-35

Chicago has the best pitching in the major leagues so far, and the offense is good enough. With all due respect to storyteller, I’d take the White Sox over the Cubs any day of the week; they’re only two games worse playing in the league that, by every peice of evidence you can name, is a decidedly superior league. The AL doesn’t win 60% of the interleague games every year by accident. Disadvantageously, Chicago’s big weakness is first base, and I’m not sure they have the guts to cut Konerko.

Pleasant Surprise: John Danks, who’s leading the league in ERA, just ahead of the immortal Shaun Marcum. It’s like the Year Of The Young Pitcher.
Disappointment: Konerko.
Holy Shit: I don’t really understand why Oakland traded Nick Swisher. He’s not a free agent yet. Why were they in a rush to dump him?
2. MINNESOTA 46-38

The Twins are the other side of the Mets lesson; no matter how good a baseball player is, he’s not as important as you think he is. I’m writing this after an astounding hot streak so maybe we’re seeing the Twins as good as they’re going to get. Their offense has been lucky to score as many runs as it has (4th in runs, but 8th on OPS) and I think runs will get scarcer as the season wears on.

Pleasant Surprise: Nick Blackburn, another young pitcher doing well
Disappointment: Boof Bonser, three-time winner of the AL Most Australian-Sounding Name Award, has an ERA over six. He was supposed to be good, wasn’t he?
Holy Shit: The Twins are dead last in the AL with 57 home runs, another reason to be suspicious of the offense.

  1. DETROIT 42-41

The team everyone expected to win 106 games is going to have to work hard to make the playoffs, but to their credit, they’ve come a long way since April. The lineup has no holes in it and a number of players who are improving, and it’s generally becoming apparent that it’s a very good team that just slumped early. They still look very good for a wild card.

Pleasant Surprise: Armando Galarraga. Another young pitcher. Where are they coming from?
Disappointment: Dontrelle Willis, who has imploded with Steve Blass Disease.
Holy shit: As new as Galarraga is, I just now noticed that both Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander are still younger than he is. That is a sweet-looking rotation.

  1. KANSAS CITY 38-46

Glory, hallelujah, the Royals aren’t in the cellar, and if the Indians cash it in, fourth place might be a sure thing! Seriously, though, the Royals still puzzle me. I can’t understand why a team, even a poor one, would give more than 200 plate appearances to Ross Gload. There’s not an iota of evidence the guy can hit well enough to play first base in the major leagues, he’s 32 years old, and it’s not like they’re stuck with him because of a big contraqct. Why would you not take a flier on some AAAA hitter?

Pleasant Surprise: Joakim Soria, who fits into two categories of which there are an unusual number of guys right now; Young Pitcher and Ridiculously Dominant Closers.
Disappointment: Tony Pena was never a good hitter, but you’d hope ehc ould have outhit most pitchers.
Holy Shit: Seriously, though, there are a LOT of lights out closers right now, aren’t there? Soria’s allowed 18 hits in 36 innings. That’s sick. And there’s all kinds of guys just blowing e’m away in the ninth inning right now.
5. CLEVELAND 37-47

Wow. From one win away from the World Series to this. Here’s the killer; this is not a bad team. They’ve scored more than they have allowed, and equal Atlanta as an amazingly unlucky team. They have great pitching and just need the offense to pick up, which it might; a lot of guys are mysteriously hitting very badly. But they’re falling behind and are going to jettison C.C. Sabathia, so I guess I can write them off because according to all accounts they’re writing themselves off.

Pleasant Surprise: I’m sorry, my mistake; Danks isn’t leading the league in ERA, Cliff Lee is. So that’s nice.
Disappointment: The Indians aren’t the worst team in baseball but I bet they have the most candidates for this category. Vic Martinez has ZERO homers. Joe Borowski, who was mediocre last year, has been disastrous. Franklin Gutierrez has been awful. Travis Hafner’s season is a total loss. Asdrubal Cabrera hit himself right back to AAA.
Holy Shit: Speaking of Asdrubal Cabrera, that unassisted triple play was cool.

33

While I still kinda like Bonds, I don’t see where he would fit in the line up. Can Bonds still run? How much will he cost? Who do I have to give up?

If he’s still hobbling with that gimpy knee and he costs as much as he did in SF, then forget about it. I’d rather have a hard hitting 3B to make up for losing Crede’s glove (who has respectable power himself). Jim Thome is the DH and while the average still blows, he is not lacking any power. I might trade out Konerko, but I’ll alienate my fans (and myself, since he’s one of my favorite players). If I get a huge pitcher for Konerko (at least CC Sabathia quality), then I might consider Bonds (if assuming low costs and ability to run). That way, I can put Thome at first and Bonds at DH.

Carlos Quentin is hitting a ton right now, and I’ll be hard pressed to place out Bonds, unless of course Bonds is healthy. Then, I would put Carlos in center and Bonds in LF. I would of course drop Brian Anderson. I think he’s had three years to prove himself and his average just blows.

However, after this long analysis, I’m not too inclined to go after Bonds.

34

I don’t know if anyone else is enjoying my summaries, but I am.

AL WEST:

  1. ANAHEIM 50-34

Anaheim’s proejcted W-L is 43-41, making them, by far, the luckiest team in baseball. You have to admit it’s not a team without holes;the offense is very bad, but has been saved by a fine pitching staff. Still, I am inclined to believe that there aren’t a lot of obvious candidates for a better second half; I think it really is a bad offense, and I think they’ll slip and maybe lose the division.

Pleasant Surprise: Joe Saunders, 11-4, 3.06. I dunno if he can keep that up but it’s been great so far.
Disappointment: You think they were hoping for more from Gary Matthews Jr.?
Holy Shit: The highest OPS+ on the team, by any player, except the guy who’s gone 1-for-1, is 118.

  1. OAKLAND 45-38

Oakland, on the other hand, is underperforming their win expectation a little. Like anaheim, they have great pitching, but their offense is a little better. They lack power, but get a lot more guys on base than Anaheim. I suspect at season’s end, Oakland will be in the playoffs, and Anaheim will not.

Pleasant Surprise: Justin Duchscherer, holy moly, a 1.91 ERA his first year as a starter. Actually, I think HE’S leading the league in ERA, not Cliff Lee. I’ll get it right sometime.
Disappointment: Travis Buck has really hit terribly, and forced them to keep running Emil Brown out there.
Holy Shit: Eric Chavez has really fallen off the map, huh?
3. TEXAS 44-41

Texas’s fine play will surprise many. What’s not surprising is the composition of the team’s success; the best offense in the American League, the worst pitching staff, more or less cancelling each other out. The team doesn’t have any really good pitchers, and nobody I think has a chance of busting out in the second half. Even the young pitchers all have mediocre DIPS. So I’d expect them to continue swapping 7-6 wins with 7-6 losses the rest of the year.

Pleasant Surprise: There’s a few candidates, but Milton Bradley is leading the league in hitting.
Disappointment: Even granting Jason Jennings was a reclamation project, his career has pretty much augered into the dirt.
Holy Shit: According to Win Shares, who do you think the American League MVP is as of right now? It’s Ian Kinsler, I shit you not, with 16 shares. I know it sounds nuts, but look at the facts: he’s an OK defensive second baseman hitting .324 with big time power and 23-for-24 as a basestealer.
4. SEATTLE 32-51

By far the worst team in the AL. Someone started a thread a few weeks ago “What can be done about the Mariners?” and I didn’t contribute because, hey, damned if I know. They’re locked into a variety of long term deals with players of little or no value. Their best hitter, Raul Ibanez, is nothing special. Their designated hitter is a guy batting .231 with a .265 OBP and five homers. They have no really good pitchers except Felix Hernandez (who apparently also swings a mean bat) and he’s hurt. They’re paying what, $120 million for this? This team is screwed, my friends, for a few years yet.

Pleasant Surprise: I’ll get back to you on that one, Gene.
Disappointment: Holy shit, take your pick. Vidro? Beltre? Sexson? How about Miguel Batista, or as I used to call him when he was Toronto’s “Closer,” Miguel Fucking Batista?
Holy Shit: Jesus, here’s another one; Brandon Morrow. 24.1 innings, 13 hits 35 strikeouts, a 0.79 ERA. Wow.

35

RickJay, I’m paying attention. I’m looking forward to your analysis of the weakest division in baseball…the home of my beloved Dodgers. (Who won again today, I might add, on the arm of Kuroda).

36

With Duchscherer, he doesn’t usually have enough innings to keep the ERA lead. I was listening to a baseball commentary show and they were trying to explain how he will be in the lead after he pitches, but then won’t have enough innings to qualify a couple of days later. It was quite confusing.

37

One hopes that this time around, Cubs management understands not to mess with the apparent synergistic results of putting together the current squad. Without having focused on any one particular area, like homers, they are doing quite well offensively. :cool:

38

Your baseball posts are the best thing going on the ‘Dope. Keep on keepin’ on!

39

There are signs of life. They’re 7 for their last 9, and have been playing much better since Riggleman was named manager. On the other hand, watching the post-game interview with Brandon Morrow last night, when the reporter asked “To what do you credit this team’s success over the last couple weeks?” I was waiting for Morrow to answer, “Well, we’ve played some other really crappy teams the last few series …” (Mets, Padres, Blue Jays).

The last two games against Toronto were a lot of fun to watch. I’ve always been a big fan of speedy utility players (Rich Amaral was my favorite Mariner back in 1995), so I really enjoyed watching Willie Bloomquist come in as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 9th on Tuesday and knock the first pitch he saw into the left-center field gap to drive in the winning run. Then yesteday Miguel Cairo got a rare start and answered by driving in 3 runs in the M’s 4-2 win.

Not to mention 5 saves in 5 opportunities since Putz has been on the DL.

40

silenus asked for it.

  1. ARIZONA 42-43

Pretty much says it all about the NL West, doesn’t it? First place, a team with a losing record.

Last year Arizona won a pile of games and a division despite scoring fewer runs than they allowed, which is a remarkable accomplishment. This year they have a losing record despite actually scoring a few more than they’ve allowed, though they’re not that far off. Looking at the lineup, I’m inclined to think the D’Backs will actually get better; Micah Ownings and Stephen Drew are better than that. Aside from Randy Johnson, who is about 87 years old, this is a very young team, and even within a season young teams tend to improve.

Pleasant Surprise: The entire bullpen
Disappointment: Eric Byrnes has just sucked balls
Holy Shit: The Snakes have the youngest lineup of position players in the major leagues, and they’re all decent, which means you can expect good things from this team for years to come.
2. LOS ANGELES 40-44

I base a lot of my thoughts on baseball teams by how many problems they could fix easily. A team that’s playing okay but has some big holes is, to my mind, in better shape than a team that might be a few games ahead but has no obvious repairs to make, because a team with clear, fixable weaknesses can plug those holes and improve immediately, while a team without can only improve by replacing a good player with a better one, which is hard. So I’m inclined to think that although I like Arizona, LA could still catch them if they can find a way to plug some of these holes. The Andruw Jones thing was a disaster and now full time at bats are going to Juan Pierre, who’s fun to watch but not a good enough hitter to play the outfield every day. Brad Penny has got to get better. If th Dodgers can find another outfielder who can hit, they can still make a run at it.

Pleasant Surprise: Hiroki Kuroda is 4-6 but he’s actually pitched very well.
Disappointment: Andruw Jones may win this category for the entire major leagues. Oh my God, what a disaster.
Holy Shit: I’m still back working on the whole Andruw Jones thing. Wow. What happened?
3. SAN FRANCISCO 37-48

The Onion had an article a few months ago entitled “San Francisco Giants Band Together to Score a Run.” That sums up this team, which for years was a terrible offensive club masked by having Barry Bonds on it. Their lineup is just a horror; it’s bad, and what competent hitters they do have are mostly very old, and so can’t be counted on going forward. The pitching staff isn’t too bad - it’s dragged down by Barry Zito, but they have several very good young arms. They need to rebuild.

Pleasant Surprise: Tim Lincecum has really burst onto the scene.
Disappointment: Barry Zito.
Holy Shit: Disappointment #2: Omar Vizquel, who apparently aged 27 years this past offseason.
4. COLORADO 34-51

I guess it’s safe to say the Colorado Rockies will not be repeating as National League Champions. The ineffectiveness, and long term loss of, Troy Tulowitzki is a huge blow, and speaking of blowing, the offense has blown in general. Willy Taveras is an absolute black hole in the lineup, and the team’s power is down across the board. 10th in the league in slugging is not nearly good enough in Coors. The pitching hasn’t been great, either. It’s still a young team, but they should be looking forward to 2009/2010 now.

Pleasant Surprise: Taylor Buchholz has really developed and is keeping the ball down, which in Coors Field is critical.
Disappointment: Tulowitzki’s injuury.
Holy Shit: Like, seriously, why is Willy Taveras playing full time? He’s always been an erratic hitter. He’s a great fourth outfielder, but this team has a lot of better bats.

  1. SAN DIEGO 33-53

Absolutely the worst team in baseball that actually has fans (so that discounts Washington.)

San Diego, as I am sure most people know, plays in an extreme pitcher’s park, Petco Park, which depresses offense by a huge amount. Parks that warp scoring levels tend to mask true problems and make it hard to discern what a team’s actual problems are. Obviously, the Padres have a lot of problems, but it’s interesting to note that superficially their pitching looks not too bad, while the offense looks atrocious, being only a tiny bit better than the Senators and worse than anyone else in the NL.

But in actual fact, the reverse is true. The offense isn’t good, but it’s not really as bad as it appears. They’re probably the second best offensive team in the NL West, behind Arizona. The pitching is in fact awful, easily the worst in the league except Pittsburgh. When you look at a San Diego pitcher, add about .6 to his ERA, and that’s how good he actually is.

Pleasant Surprise: Adrian Gonzalez isn’t a surprise anymore, but I don’t think people understand what an awesome slugger he is. To have hit 21 homers in the worst hitter’s park in baseball while batting .288 is very impressive. Chase Utley, who is hitting .300 with 23 homers, is not as good a hitter as Gonzalez.
Disappointment: It sucks to have Jim Edmonds go 16-for-90 and then hit like a crazy bastard in Chicago.
Holy Shit: Tony Clark’s still alive!