I’m getting super-reminded of another event involving Hillary Clinton, actually – the way right-wing trolls were breathlessly spreading Internet rumors for months that she was hiding a serious health issue, possibly dying – and then she actually DID get sick and collapse in public after a 9/11 memorial event, apparently validating all those rumors. If you look at the 2016 polling averages, you can see Trump visibly catching up in the week after 9/11, an effect that lasted for about a month, although she did recover from it later. (Of course, there was no “there” there, since she is still alive and well eight years later, but that’s something that can only be obvious in hindsight.)
TBH, I don’t know what this means in terms of what Biden should do (assuming there really isn’t a “there” there, and his team know it – if there legitimately IS something seriously wrong, the right course of action is obvious). I feel like it’s a devastatingly effective line of attack against an older candidate, though – if you lay the ground by pre-spreading rumors about their age and infirmity, the odds that something will happen, over the course of the campaign, that seems to validate them are awfully high.
But what if it is a one off? I know fear is a strong motivation but rarely is it a wise one.
Biden has been emphatic he will not be dropping out. All the Democratic infighting about this is more damaging than how bad he looked at the debate or on a few other occasions. Enough time has passed, more than enough has been discussed, now it’s time for people to drop this and work toward his reelection.
Really? In four months there’s nothing he can do to stop voters from thinking the debate was definitive Biden? Not more speeches like the State of the Union? Not even more interviews like he did on Morning Joe, which caused Rob Reiner to tweet:
If we see the Joe Biden that appeared on Morning Joe today every day until Nov.5, he’ll be able to shut up people like me who think he should step aside.
It’s just hopeless, even though everybody knows the campaign doesn’t really get going until after Labor Day?
I’d be thrilled to see it. And still worried that even if was a one off the damage will still be there with ads of “we beat Medicare … [blank stare]” playing over and over again being 99% of what the unengaged see of Biden.
I fear that’s the best case from here.
And I really don’t believe it’s a one off. I am convinced it’s a condition.
She does poll okay. But you are right about the smear and hate machine- but there is more than one- the Kremlin has been busy also.
But not since the debate. I explained why The Presidents poll number have dropped here twice. You are clearly not reading things.
The majority of the nation does nothing of the sort. Biden still polls within the standard deviation of trump on most polls.
Exactly.
Not to mention- the young voters with their protest votes against Biden in the primaries arent gonna vote for trump. Most of them have realized than Biden has done everything he can to end the Gaza war.
Exactly.
Oh, the hate machine- even by members of her own party- that is why.
Yeah Reiner isn’t the target. He’s engaged and decided.
The people who will decide the election remain the few in a few a states who are unsure of either who they will vote for or if they will vote or both and they are not watching Morning Joe or watching rallies.
The phrase to focus on in that quote is “every day”. It’ll take months of consecutive good days to convince people he is doing well mentally. It’ll only take 1 or 2 bad ones to undo all of that. And he likely needs to somehow gain ground in this race, not simply hold the line.
I happen to think that the mainstream media has a bothsiderist bias that has benefited Trump, and that there’s some truth to the NYT having a personal vendetta against Biden that can seep into their coverage of him. However, I don’t think the reports that have been coming out are fabricated. I think it’s true that people around Biden have witnessed bad days in private, that he’s had to go to sleep very early and that his campaign has been controlling access to try to protect his media image. And he could regress mentally in the next months and/or he could not be able to handle the increased intensity of the late weeks of the campaign. Hoping that none of these things go wrong isn’t a good strategy.
On the phone with Morning Joe he said “I’m the guy that shut Putin down.” Among other odd remarks.
In the 7/5 ABC interview he said that if Trump wins, the only thing that will matter is that he, Biden, “gave it my all.”*
The debate wasn’t a one-off. Joe isn’t thinking clearly.
Those asserting that Congressional Democrats have declared this over are fooling themselves. Look at their actual statements. What they are not saying is ‘I believe Joe Biden can beat Trump.’
When I saw James Clyburn–the guy who arguably made Biden President–refuse to give a statement to reporters after this morning’s House Dems meeting**, I felt the great relief that comes with knowing that they DO understand the issue and are not going to just shut up and pray for a miracle. They are going to do what they can to persuade Biden to pass the torch.
They were never going to say, today, that ‘Biden should step aside.’ They were never going to say that for two reasons:
They won’t humiliate Biden while the NATO summit is going on, this week. They will say ‘I support Biden’ and nothing else.
They don’t want to humiliate Biden at all–even next week, after the NATO ministers have gone home and Biden still will have done nothing to erase the images from the debate. They will hope to have the message come from Joe, not from members of Congress. They will do all they can to persuade him to do so–out of political savvy and also out of genuine regard for the man.
Search “sadness” and Congress and today’s date. You’ll learn what the attitude toward Biden-remaining-in actually is among both Representatives and Senators.
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Even if that were true, and it’s arguable, “even” gives Biden essentially no chance of winning, what with the realities of the Electoral College system. As @PhillyGuy pointed out:
Swing voters, except in their localities, have barely heard of those two. So national polls about them have little meaning.
Harris obviously has higher name recognition, but I think minds are not made up about her. If she is the nominee, she should experiences polling ups and down not seem with Biden v. Trump.
Biden has emphatically stated he is NOT DROPPING OUT. The party does not have a way to dislodge him from the ticket short of calling for a full on revolt before or at the convention. That is a guaranteed win for Trump and is being encouraged openly by NYT editorial board. Nice to know you agree.
Black-and-white image of Biden’s face. Text over his face:
Is he suffering from dementia?
New words appear as camera zooms in:
“You go back 10 years, I mean Israel was protected by Congress. And now, Congress is just doing numbers that are unbelievable with I think a very, very small group of people within Congress and it’s gotta stop. But we have to go back to the roots. We have to protect, we have to stop the antisemitism that’s just pervading our country right now.” -Joe Biden
Your inability to acknowledge any data that doesn’t align with your world view makes it very difficult to have a productive discussion. My hope Biden is looking at things more objectively, but I’d worry he has similar people who only cherry pick the numbers they like.
72% is the majority right? Hell close to half of Democrats believe he isn’t capable. So you are clearly wrong if you think most people aren’t questioning Biden’s cognitive state. Also note the figure was 65% pre-debate, so this isn’t just a debate problem.
Also once again being within the standard deviation does not mean a race is a tossup. That isn’t how polling or math works. Biden was losing before the debate and losing by more now. Roughly gone from down 1 point to 3 points in national polling and the state data is worse…
It seems apparent now that the chances of Biden voluntarily stepping aside are low to none. I think it’s stubborn hubris rather than smart political maneuvering, but it is what it is. I was always prepared to vote for whoever the Democratic nominee was, and I think Biden had been a wonderful president. I just don’t think he currently has what it takes to convince those disaffected voters that he’s a better choice than “none of the above”, which is where an awful lot of them are currently landing.
Not to say that there’s nothing he can do. Just that he hasn’t done it yet and I am having a hard time imagining what it might be. Double haters are a real thing and probably a much bigger group than is being acknowledged. In my small circle of friends and acquaintances they make up probably half. I know the plural of anecdote isn’t data, but it’s my personal observation.
Some here believe quite sincerely that only Biden can beat Trump. Others believe, equally sincerely, that only some Democrat other than Biden can beat Trump. (And this is true for professional politicians and commentators and editorial writers, too, it would appear.)
The universals:
We all want Trump beaten
We all know that the big-name Dems will refrain from publicly saying ‘Biden must go’ in the hopes that Biden will come to this conclusion himself
We all know that Biden, and likely his wife and sister and aides, like his being President and do not want to give it up (and have probably convinced themselves that he has a chance of winning)
The wife and sister are the key to getting Biden to actually look at his real-world chances instead of living in wishful-thinking-land.
I sent this to my Representative:
As a patriotic American I am grateful for the courage of those US Representatives who’ve called on Joe Biden to pass the torch of candidacy to a new generation. Defeating Donald Trump is crucial for the welfare of our nation.
I would suggest that major Democratic donors could help bring about a resolution to the current situation by offering Biden’s wife and sister prestigious positions in important new or existing foundations. If Dr. Jill Biden and Valerie Biden Owens were assured that they could continue to make a vital difference in bringing about progress in US education and/or politics, I believe they could become allies in the project of giving Joe a respected, honored, and esteemed retirement. His historically significant contributions to our nation could be elevated and revered by a Democratic 47th President and by all people of good will.
I hope that you might consider passing on this idea. Thank you for the representation you provide to the __ District.
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I did not mean this in any snarky way. It’s very hard to go from being an Important Person to a person who gets overlooked. Of course ‘being overlooked’ is likely to be the least of the Biden family problems if Trump gets in----but I accept that they aren’t thinking this way. They’ve convinced themselves that Joe will win.
So until that day arrives, if it does, you think the best strategy is for the media and members of his own party to continue denigrating him and acting as if he is a senile old man wandering aimlessly around the neighborhood?
From where I stand that sounds like a sure way to reelect DJT when supporting the President may actually turn things around. Because as we all know political infighting is the Democratic Party’s secret power.
I think those people also tend to be ableists who have already jumped to the conclusion that Biden’s cognitive challenges are severe.
A great many democracies have elected female national leaders. I cannot believe the U.S. is uniquely unwilling to elect a woman President, especially since we have elected dozens of female governors.
Re mention by others of Harris having a Jewish husband, I have a Jewish governor. And there have been Jewish national leaders in democracies without many Jewish voters.
Every candidate has some electoral weakness. The incoming female president of Mexico, a country sometimes claimed to be highly sexist, and with no significant Jewish vote, was attacked for being Jewish, and won in a landslide.
Andy Beshear would probably get more votes than Harris, but I cannot make the (electorally) perfect the enemy of the good. And Harris would be very good debating Trump. Add that bump to her polling numbers (or subtract from Trump’s if he chickens out on a second debate).
Yes. Because he has to go. He is a feeble old man who appears weak and confused. It’s painfully obvious. I can’t see how anyone could disagree, but I acknowledge some do.