It’s better than a month from now
Well, I hope @Procrustus and @Sage_Rat are right if dementia is the case, but this is just nuts. Newsom will get run over as a privileged CA who is still frowned upon for breaking his own rules with a fancy COVID dinner party.
Whitmer? No real pull from the Ds, I bet. Andy from Kentucky? Any backlash on him? Maybe GOP voters might connect with a plain-state guy…
But Joe’s infrastructure bills really kickstarted employment, IMO. The Dems have to push his accomplishments much more than they have been.
It would be supremely odd to say that Biden is no longer up to the task of being president, but that he is prepared to take on the job at a moment’s notice if something happens to Harris.
I think many folks who want Biden to drop out don’t think any of that matters. They appear to think, by my reading, that most or any younger Dem will capture most of Biden’s support just for being a younger Trump alternative, so there’s nowhere to go but up.
I think this is what caught Clinton in 2016. She was all the stock market is great and employment is great but the employed people were living paycheck to paycheck and not feeling the benefits of a good economy.
Much the same today plus inflation. Unemployment is low but people can’t find an apartment to live in much less buy a home. Groceries seem more expensive every week. Even fast food is so expensive it has gotten silly.
No amount of telling people the overall market is good helps and opens the door to Trump and conservatives who can lay blame wherever they want (usually minorities).
Make no mistake, I would vote for roadkill before voting for Trump but dems need to do better and they just never, ever seem to manage it.
If there were a Biden alternative who was pro-Ukraine and anti-Israel, I would expect it to aid turnout among younger Democratic voters, while largely not impacting the older voters.
A younger candidate, while it would be encouraging to see in a theoretical way, is probably not really the main concern though. Most younger candidates are going to be leaning harder into Culture War topics and, in general, that’s going to hurt more than it helps. You’ll get the younger voters out but there will be less excitement among the older and the center will view both candidates pretty equally.
Good point. Still, I’m not seeing people yelling for Kamala. This worries me somehow. Harris IS qualified. Not sure about the other Dem possibilities for pres.
No one’s yelling for anyone, but Harris is the simplest solution. And she’s a good solution.
Nate Silver’s article today says based on his readings of Twitter and prediction markets, Party insiders seem to be moving toward a consensus behind Harris. I’m not a huge Kamala fan, but I think this is preferable to a convention free-for-all; after all, this is essentially a situation of a President becoming unfit to serve, and in that case what we do is have the Vice President take over. I think much of the Democratic base would be infuriated by the perceived unfairness if Harris were passed over in favor of a white guy.
As far as whether Biden should step down, that analysis of Senate polls has moved me off the fence. We’ve obviously been able to find multiple Senate candidates that voters like better than Biden, so it’s no longer plausible to argue that an alternative Presidential candidate would be likely to do worse than Biden.
What if dropping Biden and replacing him with Buttigieg or Newsome (or Harris) is what would lose the presidency?
In the immortal words of The Godfather: “But won’t they take that as a sign of weakness?” “It is a sign of weakness.”
Whoever the Democrats choose as a candidate now will be seen as a substitute candidate. Somebody who isn’t as good as Biden. Because if they were, why weren’t they chosen a year ago? Obviously Biden was seen as the best candidate up to now, which means anyone else must be less than the best.
It’s also an admission that the Democrats made a mistake by sticking with Biden so long. The Republicans will gleefully point this out and ask what other mistakes the Democrats will be making.
The Republicans will also point out that if Biden isn’t fit to be President next year, why should we accept that he’s fit to be President this year? There will be calls for Biden to resign. Or for Harris to invoke the 25th Amendment. Or Congress will bypass Harris and enact their own declaration that Biden should be declared unfit to serve. All kinds of fun possibilities here.
And of course there’s the issue that the primary season is over. So whatever candidate is chosen it will be done by party leaders not voters. So throw in some accusations of backroom deals and stabbing the voters in the back. The Republicans will point out that they let the people choose their candidate.
Yes, this is a disaster with multiple layers. And while it’s unfolding, Trump can go down to Mar-a-Lago and work on his tan.
I happened in 1960. LBJ was older and more experienced than JFK.
Well, yeah, if you have a knife and the other guy has a gun, then dropping the knife is a sign of weakness. Switching to your Tommy gun, though, is an admission that the knife was weak. It’s not an admission that you are weak.
It’s a signal of weakness right up into the moment that we see what option 2 is.
Two news items:
https://thehill.com/homenews/4754991-governors-after-biden-meeting-we-have-his-back/
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/
Sounds like, for the moment, he’s got about a week of hitting the TV as often as possible, on as many shows as possible, to show that he’s fit and was just sick and/or jetlagged that day.
I’m guessing that for as much as they say they’re all backing him, it will come down to how he’s able to be perceived through the next 7 or so days.
Two minor congressmen.
He is not. He had made several public appearances since then, he is fine. One bad debate.
It certainly would, especially Buttigieg who has zero chance. If Biden withdraws it will be Harris.
One bad debate is not a disaster.
More than two congressmen:
And…
Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering signing a letter demanding President Joe Biden withdraw from the race, a senior party official said, as panic mounts that he’ll cost them control of Congress.
Biden is rapidly losing the support of Democratic lawmakers and candidates concerned the 81-year-old’s continued candidacy would lead to a Republican sweep of Washington and an unchecked Donald Trump presidency.
Yeah. Except that by analogy 1960 was 2008. Now we’re in a redux of 1968, not 1960. The question is whether or not Harris can do better than Humphrey did back in the day.
No, exactly two congressmen. None of the Governors have been doing so. Biden is meeting with them.
and from your second cite-Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering signing a letter demanding President Joe Biden withdraw from the race, considering
And your response was to: (bolding mine)
FWIW and to be fair I just saw this story:
The Democratic governors of New York, Minnesota and Maryland on Wednesday said they would support President Joe Biden’s reelection bid after a candid discussion with him about his weak performance in last week’s debate.
“The president has always had our backs. We’re going to have his back as well,” Maryland Governor Wes Moore told reporters after a meeting with Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at the White House that included 24 Democratic governors and the mayor of Washington, D.C., some joining online.
I assume that you understand that “if” implies no opinion on the question being asked, just on the action to be taken. I may as well have said, “If pigs can fly, we all need to start carrying umbrellas.” That doesn’t read to mean that I think pigs fly.
Knowing that, you felt the need to assert an omniscient statement of fact.
I’m willing to accept that Biden was sick; I’m also willing to accept that he’s senile; whichever way the evidence points, so it goes without any particular care which that is so long as it is the way the evidence points.
It’s not me that you’re telling he’s fine to. And I understand that but, at the end of the day, reality is always the winner. Lying to yourself is comforting and, indeed, you may prove to have lied in concert with what the truth turns out to be. But that still never gets you anything good.
If you want to support the Democrats, be honest and be fair. Accept that things aren’t always knowable and that “conviction” (like, you have a “conviction” that he’s fine and healthy) is just another word for “deceit”. You’re not omniscient. Life is not all black and white. You can deal with uncertainty and not fall apart.
It’s good if he’s all there. He might not be, though, and it’s a serious enough question to deserve rational analysis.