Biden’s not going to run, and there’s really no way to predict who the candidate will be in four years. It’s tricky to guess a year or two out. Speculation at this stage usually just focuses on the people with the most name recognition, which has almost nothing to do with their policies and their ability to run a national campaign. Clinton has been saying since 2009 that she is going to retire in 2013 and teach, and I think that’s what she’ll do. She’s won praise from almost all corners as secretary of state and even if it’s not the top job, that’s a major capstone on her career. Cuomo has name recognition and his first term has been pretty successful to this point, but who knows. Even in 2016 he may think he has unfinished business in New York. So I really don’t know. Since 2008 my pick has been Bev Perdue based on the quote-unquote logic that the first woman president would follow the first African-American president, but her term hasn’t gone so well and she’s not running for re-election.
Martin O’Malley is often touted as a 2016 contender:
He’s the chair of the Democratic governor’s association. Bill Clinton had that role too.
I disagree though that Biden would win the nomination if he ran. He’s already run two campaigns and flopped. The guy is a bad campaigner and while I think he’s very intelligent, very serious, and very honest, he doesn’t have a history of running anything. He’s a career legislator. He’s not going to be able to match a governor like Cuomo or O’Malley in terms of governing experience. Biden can just say he’s been a politician a really long time. Cuomo and O’Malley can say they’ve DONE things.
O’Malley has very real accomplishments. As Mayor of Baltimore, he reduced Baltimore from the sixth most crime-ridden city to 12th.
However, while his competence is unquestioned, he does seem too liberal to win a national election, IMO. Cuomo’s record is more centrist and his approval rating among conservatives is high.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/07/25/cuomos_approval_hits_new_high.html
69% approval among Republicans.
Did I miss something? When did that happen?
It’s a rumor pushed by an author who had inside access, so it could be true. But we can’t know for sure.
But logically, there’s nothing in that for Clinton. In 2008 it would have made sense, in 2012 there’s no benefit. Her stature has increased so much due to doing her job well. VP would just yoke her either to a failed campaign or a Presidential 2nd term, which usually doesn’t go so well. She’s better of staying where she is or taking a break.
As for age, women live longer than men. I doubt there’d be much voter resistance to a 70 year old woman the way you normally see for 70 year old men.
I think Schweitzer might also have some problems in a primary and with fundraising because his positions on fossil fuel use aren’t exactly in line with the current Democratic orthodoxy. He supports alternative energy and especially things like clean coal and carbon capture, but he’s also been very accommodating to coal and oil development in the eastern part of the state. He’s more concerned with domestic energy than clean energy, which has become more of a conservative position. I personally really like his energy policy, and much like his unambiguous gun rights support it could be an asset in the general election, but in the last decade or so the environment has become the left’s big wedge issue. I think Schweitzer’s environmental record would be very open to attack in a primary and I could see it turning off a lot of the big dollar Democratic donors.
He’d probably be a great ticket-balancing VP candidate, though.
There would be exactly as much voter resistance to a 70 year old woman. I.e., little to none for Congressional candidates and extremely high for Presidential candidates. Despite the Boomers - indeed, probably because of the Boomers - we will never see a 70-year-old candidate in our lifetimes. We Boomers all ache too much to allow that to happen. And you younguns’ hate us.
Ryan.
Meh.
“The gates swung open and a Fig Newton entered.”~~Groucho
Wait until after the Democratic National Convention. Barack Obama gave the keynote speech in 2004 and went on to become President, we may see a repeat of that with the next keynote speaker.
Edit: Julian Castro is the keynote speaker, if the speech goes well it could be a portent of things to come.
A mayor in a red state? Doesn’t seem too likely unless he can become governor of Texas. Obama had the easiest path possible, Castro will have to work his ass off.
That’s a big if. People talked about Mark Warner as having national aspirations, and then he got the DNC keynote speech in 2008 and was supposedly boring as hell. Bill Clinton managed to recover after bombing that way, but it’s tough when you make a bad first impression.
Right, Obama only had to run against Hillary Clinton with all of her connections and name recognition and money. But you’re correct that mayors don’t have a great track record in presidential elections. Maybe of bigger importance: Castro is 37 and he’s been in office for all of three years.If elected in 2016 he’d become the youngest president in U.S. history, and if he were on the bottom of the ticket he’d be one of the youngest vice presidents (fourth-youngest, I think). So he could set himself up for big things this year but 2016 seems kind of soon. Then again in 2016 he’ll be about the same age Paul Ryan is now, so I guess it’s not unimaginable.
The convention keynote speaker (of either party) is always going to be someone the party is grooming for bigger and better things, but that doesn’t necessarily mean running for President in the very next election. Obama was rather remarkable in that regards, and even there, he already had a position rather higher than mayor. A mayor, especially a very young mayor, has a lot of room for bigger and better things before going straight for the top.
Not to hijack (he says while hijacking the thread), but who do y’all expect to be the keynote speaker for the Democratic Party convention this year?
That might give us some insight as to where the party leadership, such as it is, is looking to for the next election.
See gamerunknown’s post. They’ve already announced that it’s going to be Julian Castro, the mayor of San Antonio. The Republican keynote speaker will be Chris Christie.
Oops. Hate it when I ask an already answered question.
Thanks, Marley23.
I’m chuckling over the thought of President Joe Biden and Vice President Howard Dean. This is full employment job creation for the news services and comedians.