Baseball Prospectus right now calculates the Cub’s odds of making the playoffs at a shade over 70%. Now would be the perfect time for a collapse.
If they get in, the postseason rotation is likely Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, and Hill (unless they can trim to a 3-man rotation). Lilly and Marquis are fairly consistent, and Zambrano appears to have put his post-extension funk behind him. Carlos is clearly the key; when he’s on, he’s great, but he doesn’t seem to pitch well after a play goes against him (bad call, fielding error, etc.), and his short temper often hinders his performance. Hill is also a key man; his breaking ball is excellent, but if he can’t get it over his fastball is pretty mediocre, and he gets torched. Overall though he’s better than his record indicates–I think he has the lowest run-support in the NL–but it does all depend on his one good pitch.
Hitting is another issue, and I’ve never seen a contending team as streaky at the plate as this year’s Cubs. Soriano at the top is a huge enigma; he isn’t really a lead-off guy, but he doesn’t seem to bat as well in other lineup slots (I know, it shouldn’t matter, but it seems to). Lee and Ramirez are feast-or-famine, and when both of them slump, this lineup just can’t get it done (Jaques Jones’ incredible August–where he was carrying the team for a few weeks–was far more important than most fans realize, but IMO it was a fluke). But IMO DeRosa and Theriot are the real barometer–if they don’t get on base, it’s unlikely the Cubs score more than 2 runs a game.
Do they have a chance? They are starting to click at the right time, and anything’s possible in the playoffs, but a lot of things have to go right for them to win the NL (the Mets alone are a formidable challenge), and I just can’t see them competing with any of the expected AL opponents.
Finally, this tidbit: In the Sunday NYT, there was a feature about the Cubs/Cards rivalry which included the following quote from DeRosa: “What’s amazing is, I find myself in the middle of a game thinking about people sitting in sports bars and living rooms in the Chicago area, and how we can’t let them down, that kind of thing…I’ve never played in any city where I thought about that. Here, it’s like you’re playing for everyone who’s struggled with this team. If we blow this lead, about 700 sports bars will be going into an absolute tirade.” I appreciate the thought, but that’s the kind of mind-set that could lead to collapse if something goes wrong at a key moment (see: The Bartman game). I’d feel a lot better if these guys weren’t so weighed down by Cubs history…
But yes, they’ll probably make the playoffs.