Clinton: 292 (293 minus one faithless elector)
Trump: 245
Senate: 51R / 49D
3rd Party: 6.6%
McMullin: 26%
HRC: 324
iDJiT: 214
Senate: 52D-48R
3rd Party: 4%
McMullin Effect: 28%
Hillary: 275
Trump: 263
Senate: 52 R / 48 D
3rd-party: 3.4%
Brett Cecil plays in Canada, though. (Or has to this point)
27 actually is the percent vote Alan Keyes got in his famed Senate race with Barack Obama in 2004, and so has to be considered the absolute floor number a major party candidate in a major race can get. There was literally no reason whatsoever for anyone to vote for Keyes, none at all:
- Keyes wasn’t even from Illinois,
- Keyes was parachuted into the race when Jack Ryan (not the Tom Clancy character) had to quit, so he had no political base, no platform, and no one knew him.
- Obama was not facing any sort of personal or professional scandal,
- Keyes is also black, so you can’t say it was racism against Obama, and
- Keyes was, and is, nuttier than elephant poop.
Yet 27% of people in Illinois went into the polling booths and voted for an out-of-state lunatic they knew nothing about. That’s the Keyes Number. You can’t do worse than the Keyes Number.
Clinton 319
Trump 219
Senate 50/50
Third Party 6.5%
McMullin 26%
Oh, I don’t know who this McMullin character is but… 30%?
Just for Utah. He’s a Mormon independent candidate from Utah with heavy ties to the community there.
Just to clarify - while he’s running as an independent, he’s historically a republican, and now he’s a never-Trumper. Here’s his Wikipedia entry.
323 - Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count
215 - Trump’s Electoral Vote Count
53D, 47R - Senate Split
3.8% - Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent
323 - Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count
215 - Trump’s Electoral Vote Count
50D*, 50R - Senate Split (I - incl. I who caucus with D)
6.7% - Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent
28% - McMullin
HRC gets 263 and goes down in history as the woman that lost to Trump.
DJT gets 275 and shocks Washington, Wall Street, Europe, and liberals everywhere.
Senate stays Republican by a razor-thin margin: 51R - 49D+I.
3rd-part candidates win a combined 6.3%.
McMullin gets 26% (and a second-place finish there).
325 - Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count
213 - Trump’s Electoral Vote Count
51D, 49R - Senate Split ( incl. I who caucus with D, to borrow from Septimus’s framing)
6.0% - Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent
24% - McMullin
Apologies if I missed an official answer on this already - do we need to account for faithless electors?
Clinton: 322 (not accounting for faithless electors)
Trump: 216
Senate: 49R / 51D
3rd Party: 5.2%
McMullin: 30%
No, because they won’t be known until well after tomorrow night.
And we now have 46 predictors! Who wins, who loses? We’ll find out tomorrow night!
8.7% - McMullicuddy in Utah
I also forgot something: I assume that independent Senators are counted with the party they caucus with. If not then change my answer to 48D-50R-2I since I counted King and Sanders as D’s 
And I assume that there are no other viable independent candidates for the Senate who would be new to the Senate chamber, otherwise it might get dicey because you can’t always be sure where the candidate would caucus, if at all :eek:
Clinton – 316
Trump – 222
Senate split: 51 D, 49 R
Third party: 5.9%
McMullin: 27%
People here suspect he’s more interested in setting himself up for a Senate run after Hatch retires.
Here’s my predictions.
- Clinton’s electoral vote total. 323
- Trump’s electoral vote total. 215
- Senate split. 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 2 Independents that causes with the Democrats.
- 3rd party vote percentage. 8.1%
Tie breaker
Evan McMullin’s Utah vote percentage. 30.6%
Good luck everybody!