Very sporting of you, Flik. Well done.
Midnight eastern time is when the prediction market closes. Good luck to all!
Getting in under the wire, I notice I’m similar to a few others:
Clinton : 323
Trump : 215
Senate : 51R / 49D
3rd party: 6.9%
Mulldog: 24.2%
Clinton 312
Trump 226
Senate 50/50
3rd party 5.7
McMuffin 27
Clinton: 294
Trump: 244
Senate: 49R / 51D
Third party: 5.6%
McMullen in Utah: 19.8%
Specifically, for the electoral college, I’m going with this: 270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Which isn’t the outcome I consider most likely, just the most plausible result that would make me seem like prediction genius if I’m right.
Clinton 408 on 51% vote share
Trump 124 on 43% vote share
53 Democrats in the Senate
8.1% third party
Tiebreaker: Evan McMullin wins 39% and with it Utah.
Electoral College:
Clinton 322
Trump 216
Senate: 51 D/49 R
3rd Parties: 6.2%
McMullin in Utah: 27.5%
Decided to give Trump the electoral vote for Maine’s 2nd District to avoid the 323/215 pile-up
Updating to
Trump 264
Clinton 274
Senate 50/50
Third Party 5.1%
McMuffin 27.5%
Clinton 323, Trump 215
Senate 51 R, 49 D
Third parties, 6.5%
McMullin 25.2%
Trump 279
Clinton 259
Senate 53 R, 47 D
3rd Parties 7.3%
McMullin 28.3%
EDIT: Just saw I didn’t make JC’s 12 Eastern deadline. It’s before 12 Central here, but if I’m out, I’m out. Good luck to everyone!
Sorry Gray Ghost, you can play for bragging rights!
With voting closed we have 54 participants. Good luck to everyone. Cross your fingers.
How am I supposed to type like that?
I don’t care about the contest or the rules but I’ll just toss out a generalized prediction:
Clinton wins 307-231
The Senate splits 50-50
Repubs keep House 239 R 196 R
So who won?
Even though the results aren’t final-final yet (I can easily see MI switching in a recount), and I’m still hazy on the scoring rubric, it’s looking like Enlightened Meditation might have this one.
Maybe we should also have a “most wrong” prize? Did anyone else guess Trump at all?
Looks like you are absolutely correct. Nice work.
Congratulations!
Electoral votes aren’t cast yet. For those of us who feel that the Electoral College votes should reflect the popular vote, there’s this petition: Petition · Electoral College: Make Hillary Clinton President. · Change.org
Wow, now that’s some sour grapes.
Yes, how crass to suggest that the top vote-getter should win! The will of the people should be disregarded.