For purposes of this thread, I think JC already stated we were not waiting for the official electoral college vote. We may just be waiting for the last 3 states to get called for final numbers.
That and it’s made my day job busy. I’ll score it up on my spreadsheet this weekend.
Thank you. My hunch turned out to be basically correct, anyway. My prediction numbers are in relatively close proximity to the results although the final ballot counts are not yet available. For the electoral college, I incorrectly predicted Nevada and probably New Hampshire as these toss-up states went to Clinton. Some media outlets still report NH as ‘Too Close To Call’ but I think Clinton has it. I honestly did not expect Clinton to get a single toss-up state due to a high percentage of undecided voters and late direction shift toward Trump. I incorrectly predicted Wisconsin which went to Trump, so that helped keep the EV count prediction close. I forgot to account for the expected 3/1 EV split in Maine.
Michigan has not yet been called for either candidate. Trump has a 0.3% lead in MI with 96% of precincts reporting. If that lead holds, then the electoral college vote will likely be 306 / 232 not accounting for faithless electors, if any, later on when actual electoral votes are cast. The other likely EC vote would be 290 / 248.
The Senate will have either 51 or 52 Republicans depending on the result of the Louisiana run-off election in December. The Republican candidate is favored.
The 3rd Party composite national popular vote is currently around 4.9%.
I doubt that the McMullin tiebreaker will be a factor in this contest. He currently has 20.6% of the Utah vote. Ballots are still being counted with only 85% of precincts reporting.
If ballot tally trends hold, then my points would be 16.
(306-301 DT ECVs)+(237-232 HRC ECVs)+(1 Senate seat deviation)+(4.9-4.4 tenths of percentage points) = 5+5+1+5 = 16. These numbers will probably shift.
I am not ready to declare victory yet. A cursory look at this thread suggests that I have good odds given that no other participants picked Trump’s EC vote total to be above 280.
This was an election between two major party nominees with questionable critical thinking skills. Thank goodness one of them had to lose. My candidate finished 3rd in the national popular vote as expected. I am not shocked one bit by the Trump victory. I am a bit baffled by the shock demonstrated by others. Trump was within the margin of error in more than enough lean blue states in late polling. Some polls were way off in the primary especially Clinton vs Sanders in Michigan. Bernie was getting skunked by 20 percentage points in polling but pulled out a narrow primary victory.
If you told me 8 years ago that the GOP in November 2016 would nominate and elect POTUS a twice-divorced Manhattan-based liberal billionaire former Clinton donor with no public office experience and no military service, then I would have been surprised.
If you told me 8 years ago (or even a few months ago…I wrongly predicted her defeat in the '16 primary) that Hillary Clinton would be nominated and reach within 2 or 3 swing states of being elected POTUS (or win popular vote) in November 2016, then I would have been utterly shocked. The Clinton campaign in 2008 was stunningly awful. Voters have short memories. This poor choice of a nominee allowed for a Trump victory to happen. The Democrats beat themselves in a sense (with help from a quirky electoral college system) as demonstrated by low turnout and severe lack of enthusiasm.
I nervously await a Trump inauguration and cross my fingers that the White House environment influences him to demonstrate better judgment. I disagree with him on numerous issues but proud of him for blocking the Clintons. I think he would have won in a huge landslide if ran a more measured, less incendiary & divisive campaign.
Election-from-Heck indeed!!!
Thanks for being patient, people! It’s been fun to run the game and see how people make their predictions. Especially in a crazed election such as this one.
Congratulations to Enlightening Mediation. EM absolutely blew the field away with a score of 15! The average score was 193.6296296. That is some impressive predicting there.
Our runner up is Hurricane Ditka with a score of 76. He beat out third place UltraVires who had 79 points. Note: For purposes of scoring I awarded Michigan’s EV to Trump - he holds the lead there - and I awarded the LA senate race to the Republicans as the R candidate holds a lead there in LAs weird-ass system.
EM, HD, please contact me privately to arrange for the prize!
Here’s the scoring, overall.
Enlightening Mediation 15
Hurricane Ditka 76
UltraVires 79
pohjonen 86
furt 87
TroutMan 96
Rigamarole 102
adaher 104
tonyfop 118
El_Kabong 127
emcee2K 133
Jules Andre 140
JkellyMap 161
xenophon41 162
Implicit 169
Ludovic 173
Lakai 174
Sherrerd 180
RTFirefly 185
Richard Parker 185
Dseid 186
Euphonious Polemic 186
snoe 187
BorgHunter 191
42fish 195
BobLibDem 196
irritant 196
Snowboarder Bo 197
bibliophage 198
BeepKillBeep 199
Sunny Daze 199
Septimus 201
Monocracy 202
BigT 204
Flik the Blue 214
RickJay 219
Eddie the Horrible 220
Bone 223
BigAppleBucky 227
kopek 232
Czarcasm 235
YogSothoth 235
Thing Fish 235
Buck Godot 244
Velocity 245
Psychopants 245
Aspenglow 248
iiandyiiii 255
Wesley Clarke 265
scabpicker 271
Sterling Archer 274
Oakminster 331
Lancia 355
littlespeedysuperbike 394
Supporters, I just got off the phone with Enlightening Mediation congratulating him on his victory in this contest. Although we came up short today, our predictions will carry on…
Personally, I plan to protest in the streets. Who’s with me??!!?!??!??
(Speaking of predictions, Sam Wang did eat that bug (a cricket from a can meant as snake-food). Thank heavens our moderators did not request such investment in the outcome of us!)
Good for Sam. I was going to recommend to him some tasty chapulines – salty roasted grasshoppers, eaten in Oaxaca, Mexico as bar food.
Yes, there are a lot of human-edible insect choices out there. I was surprised he went the ‘snake food’ route, because who knows what contaminants there might be in there? But he apparently wanted to put across a “Saint John the Baptist in the Wilderness” analogy (he ate the thing with honey.) John ate locusts, though. Maybe it’s not possible to order locusts online.
Thank you, JC, for the kind compliment, and thank you for taking the time to organize the contest. I will probably strikeout to finish tied for last in the SDMB dead pool for 2016, so it is a nicety to offset that mild disappointment.
Special thanks to Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com. I gave Trump electors a strong chance in any state with +20% odds in composite polling on 538. The visceral unpopularity of the Clintons is so profound here in the rust belt region even among Obama voters and Bernie primary supporters (and far more among the right wingers), and many undecided general election voters were trying to pick who they “hate least” or 3rd Party or stay home. I braced for disappointment either way, and I simply tried to predict this election unbiased just based upon mechanics of polling trends and raw intuition.
Small nitpick: The handle is Enlightening Meditation rather than Enlightening Mediation. Om… I hope to open up a free meditation center for any and all peaceful faiths some day. I cannot yet afford the philanthropic costs of construction and maintenance yet.
I continue to feel a disappointment in humanity with all the conflicts and greed and hatred in world. I knew that the bitter, arrogant Clintons were not the answer. I voted 3rd Party. Trump’s actions in the campaign were sometimes alarming, but I withhold judgment until actual governing occurs. Trump’s roles as an executive mogul and reality show celebrity have given opportunities to so many talented people while his behavior on Twitter and in speeches (or old videos) has denigrated and/or insulted others. Obama was decent…not great…but solid and stabilizing given the headwinds he faced. He delivered on ‘HOPE’ to an extent. POTUS is tough gig. I wish Trump the best but will never waver from supporting civil rights for peace-loving minorities.
Another hearty congratulations to you, Enlightening Mediation! Well done!
I have received my prize custom title as specified in the OP. Thank you to Jonathan Chance for spending the time and effort to run this contest and also for being a solid moderator in general.
Thank you. To clarify, it’s Enlightening Meditation. ‘Mediation’ has a different meaning.