No, I wasn’t expecting a mod answer. Astral, your #3 doesn’t vary in its Truth-Table from #2, but does merit consideration.
It’s a coin toss after all.
Oh, and great Night story as always, Dante!
Thanks for that, Professor.
It’s hard to know how much to read into the narration, and some things only become clear as meaningful once we know what’s happened. For example, the narration about Riggs throwing out his gun, which (in retrospect) indicated that his ability was used up.
Rereading the Night One narration, I was hoping it would more clearly indicate that the killer had been the one transported, but that isn’t clear. However, I return to my post 302 where I speculate that you, Prof P., were the most likely target for the night kill. I draw the conclusion that you’re town from it, but it also suggests that transporting the scum prevented the kill. When writing it, I thought you were protected by a doctor, but that wasn’t the case. I didn’t find out until later you were a transporter and the one responsible for preventing the kill. I would also like to point out that I’m an idiot for being so sure it was a doctor and rolestopper and that I have not had anything close to “perfect knowledge” as Astral accuses me of having.
Staying with post 302, Astral was the last vote on Mosier for the Day One non-kill. As I discuss in 302, scummyness increases with lateness of the votes. Mosier flipping town only confirms that conclusion that the late vote (pushing Mosier one vote from lynch) was scummy. The only alternative is that my plan was to hem and haw about a Day One kill, cast the fourth vote, wait for a townie to cast the fifth, unvote (which at the time looked scummy but wasn’t), and not kill a townie Day One.
We’ve got time left, so I’m going to try my hardest to convince you. You need to seriously consider your vote if we’re gonna win this game. I want you to ask yourself why would a scum Astral/Hooker do that? to the various events in the game.
• Voting for Mosier. Hooker waffled in his interest in voting for Mosier (see here:
He’s leaning confident, but he’s not very confident about that confidence. Setting the stage for dodging blame for Mosier’s town reveal. :smack:
There’s his vote. An hour and a half later, after a sixth vote doesn’t materialize, Hooker unvotes while crowing about how townie he’s being:
Here was his previous justification for eventually turning to Sangfroid (and, in essence, no lynch):
I’m pretty sure you yourself tried to talk me out of Sangfroid by saying he was playing EXACTLY as he played in the last game, which makes it clear that Hooker is just looking for a justification for his throw-away. He’s pointed out repeatedly how townie his unvote was:
But it’s only the right move if you already knew Mosier was town. Hooker couldn’t have possibly known that, and he set town up to fail. Even if you don’t necessarily trust me on this, Suburban Plankton felt the exact same way.
• Scum interaction. Hooker forced a no-lynch (seriously, how am I the only one all game who sees how anti-town that is?), and as far as I can remember, only received two early day 1 votes: Sario’s meaningless “english is weird, lol conversation” vote and your vote agreeing about English’s weirdness. I think his scum buddies Sario and Sangfroid pretty studiously ignored him all game after that vote from Sario, which is a noticeable flaw in their scum game.
• Fishing for info about you:
This part should make you raise your eyebrows. Hooker is very clearly trying to suss out information in-game for who the town doctor is, and it comes right on the heels of scum missing a kill and is the majority of his discussion while we’re debating me, Mosier, and Suburban Plankton. This post never comes out and says “hey guys, who is the doctor?” but Hooker really wants us guessing, which could give the scum team clues on who they should target and try to take out. Fishing is scummy scummy scummy.
• Suburban’s Lynch: After the blocked night kill, and between all the fishing for info about the doctor, this is what Hooker has to say about me and Mosier;
There’s more in that post about Mosier specifically, so click the blue arrow for full context. His next check-in still promises a recap of me and Mosier:
He finally returns and concludes that Ive been aggressive, just like everybody else says:
He then ultimately settles on Suburban Plankton for this reason:
This is the first vote for SP. The vote takes off, people jump on, and Suburban is lynched. Hooker has this to say about the developing bandwagon:
For the record, you can find my vote for SP here.
Hooker weighs in one last time to say how good this lynch is, and then resumes fishing for info about the doc:
Note, Hooker’s last post before day end comes just 3 minutes before SP’s claim of backup doc. After posting all morning, Hooker suddenly isn’t present in the game to unvote based on the claim, and SP dies. Aw shucks, turns out this was a bad lynch after all:
The question you need to ask yourself is, can you see more townie motivation in Hooker’s actions, or mine? I’d argue I’ve done more actual town work, but of course I’d say that (:D). Please reconsider your vote.
Yeah, but I was also the first vote on Mosier, and I said when Mosier had only 3 votes on him) that I would revote near the end of the day, once I had prodded Sangfroid enough. There’s no way you can argue that my vote comes out of nowhere to suddenly push Mosier over the edge into lynchdom.
That’s a lot of good work, Astral. Thank you. I will now wait for Hooker’s rebuttal.
This could take a while.
I’m stepping away from the computer and may not return until morning. I’ll finish then if I don’t tonight. (I’m on Pacific time.)
All right, I have to:
HookerChemical, Ronan the Accuser has challenged you! What is your defense?
Ha! Nice.
First, I want to congratulate WF Toomba for post 273 and pointing out all the scum. Amazingly, he fingered them for both being too aggressive and not aggressive enough.
Also, I’ve pulled in nested quotes and lots of tags. I hope I got them all right.
There’s no dodging the blame for the Mosier lynch that my vote led to. The fundamental flaw in this theory is that I unvoted, thus putting a mis-lynch out of reach. I wasn’t confident in a Mosier lynch. When I put my vote down, I didn’t expect the votes needed to lynch to materialize, but Astral saw his chance and jumped on the bandwagon to put Mosier one vote away.
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection]
There’s his vote. An hour and a half later, after a sixth vote doesn’t materialize, Hooker unvotes while crowing about how townie he’s being:
[/quote]
Again, this unvote is very townie. The lynch was on flimsy evidence. There was no way to know it was as townie as it was at the time. If Mosier had flipped scum, the unvote would look very different, but he didn’t and the unvote clearly benefited town. Since Mosier flipped town, we can limit the scenarios to his #3 and #4:
“Completely absurd” may be overstating it, but the unvote pulled Mosier back from the ledge when the only scum already voting for Mosier was in a position to leave him there for either of the two remaining scum to vote and push him off. What my unvote did was leave scum with the option of either no lynch or all three scum falling on Mosier as the last three votes. This may have been a significant factor in the reason they didn’t jump on the bandwagon to finish the lynch.
I don’t know how you get “crowing about how townie I’m being” from that. I’m reiterating some of the takeaways I got from the watch along of the previous Mafia game. This takeaway being that people spend too much effort trying to look townie rather than actually being townie. We’ll come back to this difference. (Another takeaway being that town needs to get thoughts, suspicions, and ideas on the board so there is a record to come back to late in the game. That’s not much of a factor in this post, but it is in my next post.) I broke out the unvote and the thought process to be sure the unvote was in on time.
I had almost been taken in by the shelter I felt from Prof P’s post 139 discussing why he felt Sario and sang not casting throwaway votes felt townie:
I don’t disagree with that analysis about it giving a minor townie vibe to the non-voters (as wrong as it was), but I couldn’t worry too much about looking townie by not doing the townie thing. So I did what looked wrong at the time and unvoted. In retrospect, it made (what we now know was) a mis-lynch unlikely since it would have required two people to switch over last minute.
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection]
Here was his previous justification for eventually turning to Sangfroid (and, in essence, no lynch):
[/quote]
I still stand by the no lynch in absence of real evidence. We had a 20 or 30 percent chance of hitting scum based on what amounted to no evidence. Astral posted a couple analyses of the worst-case scenario claiming no benefit of a no-kill, but Mosier pointed out errors and that a no-lynch bought us one more day until lylo.
Nevertheless, Astral kept pushing for a Day One lynch. Sario was also pushing for a lynch-for-info while I was in the vote lead. (Plum also wanted a lynch, so it wasn’t only scum pushing lynch.) With Sario pushing for a lynch and not already voting for Mosier, the unvote prevented the mis-lynch.
I’ll also point out that Astral correctly indicated 3 scum in his analysis, which scum would know but down didn’t confirm until much later.
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection ]
I’m pretty sure you yourself tried to talk me out of Sangfroid by saying he was playing EXACTLY as he played in the last game, which makes it clear that Hooker is just looking for a justification for his throw-away. He’s pointed out repeatedly how townie his unvote was:
But it’s only the right move if you already knew Mosier was town. Hooker couldn’t have possibly known that, and he set town up to fail. Even if you don’t necessarily trust me on this, Suburban Plankton felt the exact same way.
[/quote]
At the time, I didn’t know how townie it was, only that I didn’t think the evidence amounted to enough to justify a lynch on Mosier. Only time has shown how right the move was.
The scum move in that situation is to leave the vote on Mosier. I was fourth, meaning two more people would have to join for a lynch. That’s decent cover for scum.
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection ]
• Scum interaction. Hooker forced a no-lynch (seriously, how am I the only one all game who sees how anti-town that is?), and as far as I can remember, only received two early day 1 votes: Sario’s meaningless “english is weird, lol conversation” vote and your vote agreeing about English’s weirdness. I think his scum buddies Sario and Sangfroid pretty studiously ignored him all game after that vote from Sario, which is a noticeable flaw in their scum game.
[/quote]
Astral is overlooking Sario’s response to my question about no lynch vs mis-lynch (post 49). I pretty clearly came down on the opposite side of the lynch-for-info debate by dodging the Mosier mis-lynch while Sario favored it (albeit not as strongly as Astral. Neither Sario nor sangfroid had many significant discussions with others. Both Sario and sangfroid were fairly lurky for extended periods. However, Astral made efforts to get both of them to vote:
So here we have Astral pushing for scum Sario to vote back in post 123 and now (post 586) confusing his fellow scum for one another. He concludes the post with:
In other words, “There is a lot of cover for scum going along with a lynch. Sario and sang, there’s a lot of cover for you if you join the bandwagon. I’m coming over later too.”
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection ]
• Fishing for info about you:
This part should make you raise your eyebrows. Hooker is very clearly trying to suss out information in-game for who the town doctor is, and it comes right on the heels of scum missing a kill and is the majority of his discussion while we’re debating me, Mosier, and Suburban Plankton. This post never comes out and says “hey guys, who is the doctor?” but Hooker really wants us guessing, which could give the scum team clues on who they should target and try to take out. Fishing is scummy scummy scummy.
[/quote]
These posts are fishing for what the role does and what that tells us. The only post that makes any attempt to assign the role to a person is the one scenario where Astral self protected and Prof P is scum, which was obviously very wrong and because it relies on the assumption that Astral is Frank, a doctor.
Of course I was looking for information. Town needs information. Also, understanding Frank’s ability could give us an indication as to who’s town. Prof P would know who to trust if he knew his ability worked on town or scum.
Astral spent Day One arguing that a lynch for information was beneficial, but now he’s accusing me of being scum for trying to get information about how a role worked and to figure out if it gives an indication of who the scum and town are. I still think the most likely Night One target was Prof P who saved his own life by transporting the assassin.
My concern that the ability was insanely powerful once it found scum was unnecessary because of the “out of gas” rules we were informed of this morning, so the role isn’t nearly as overpowered as I thought.
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection]
• Suburban’s Lynch: After the blocked night kill, and between all the fishing for info about the doctor, this is what Hooker has to say about me and Mosier;
There’s more in that post about Mosier specifically, so click the blue arrow for full context.
[/quote]
Here’s the part I want to reiterate:
Rereading my own discussion, the Day One voting, with Astral coming in on Mosier late should have been a bigger tell to me than it was.
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection]
His next check-in still promises a recap of me and Mosier:
[/quote]
Again Astral is misrepresenting what I’ve said. There’s no promise of a recap, only a statement that that’s what I’m looking at with the implication that it’s worth considering when voting. Full context:
This is more of the takeaway that town needs to talk it out and get suspicions on the table while they can.
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection]
He finally returns and concludes that Ive been aggressive, just like everybody else says:
He then ultimately settles on Suburban Plankton for this reason:
This is the first vote for SP. The vote takes off, people jump on, and Suburban is lynched. Hooker has this to say about the developing bandwagon:
For the record, you can find my vote for SP here.
Hooker weighs in one last time to say how good this lynch is, and then resumes fishing for info about the doc:
Note, Hooker’s last post before day end comes just 3 minutes before SP’s claim of backup doc. After posting all morning, Hooker suddenly isn’t present in the game to unvote based on the claim, and SP dies. Aw shucks, turns out this was a bad lynch after all:
[/quote]
Astral is equating “reasonable lynch” and “good lynch.” I stand by the lynch as reasonable (meaning it was better than a blind shot in the dark and could get the votes to support it) when I got it started. The only other viable candidate was Mosier, who I defended against Astral and Toomba (Astral’s post 354, my post 356). A Mosier lynch was just as bad as the Plankton lynch. While the Plankton lynch was reasonable, it wasn’t good, as we saw on the flip. To see just how reasonable it was look at the vote order. The bandwagon rapidly forms in the order of: Prof P., Plumpudding, sangfroid, WF Tomba, Astral, Mahaloth. The two votes after me (when a lynch was far from a lock) were Prof P (virtually confirmed town – if you’re not, my faith in reality will be shattered) and Plumpudding, confirmed town.
As for my lack of an unvote, the window was very small (four minutes). I can’t always stay on the thread and refresh every minute or two, so I missed the small window to pull back my vote. I will note, however, that Astral was around only twelve minutes later. Plankton claimed in post 373 (12:55PM). Astral’s post 382 at 1:08 PM technically came after the day ended, but it’s clear from posts 382 and 383 that Astral didn’t realize that. And yet, there was no unvote.
I’ll also call attention to this portion of Plankton’s post 373 (with the claim):
Emphasis is added.
[QUOTE=Astral Rejection]
The question you need to ask yourself is, can you see more townie motivation in Hooker’s actions, or mine? I’d argue I’ve done more actual town work, but of course I’d say that (:D). Please reconsider your vote.
[/QUOTE]
My next post is a much shorter summary of a lot of this. It lays out two scenarios: one with Astral as scum, one with me. Decide which is more reasonable.
This game was decided on Day/Night One. I thought I would draw suspicions after my Day One unvote, but time has vindicated that action. If Astral is scum, here’s how things played out:
[ul]
[li]Day One nearly ends in mis-lynch of Mosier. Despite Astral’s lobbying, the votes don’t come through. Possibly because it would have required scum to be votes 4, 5, and 6.[/li]
[li]Night One ends with Frank saving the day by transporting Astral and preventing him from making the kill. The most likely target was Prof P for all his effort leading the discussion, but by targeting scum Astral the target is unimportant.[/li]
[li]Day Two, I have choice of lynching Mosier or a less supported candidate. I don’t see justification for a Mosier lynch at the time. It’s less justifiable than it was Day One in my mind, so I pick my next candidate in Suburban. The bandwagon rapidly forms with town leading the way (first three votes). A late claim doesn’t save Suburban.[/li]
[li]Night Two includes discussion prompted by Mosier about what the mis-lynch says about him starting in post 400 and finishing in post 403 with Astral saying that he had to conclude Mosier was town. This is scum Astral pinned into stating that Mosier was vindicated by Suburban Plankton flipping town. It is also likely the reason Mosier was lynched since Astral could no longer justify charging for the Mosier lynch. Night Two also included the unfortunate friendly fire incident when Plumpudding investigated WF Tomba.[/li]
[li]Day Three is the day town put things together. Roles are revealed and town quickly lynches Sario. From here, the game is on rails for me since I know who the scum are (barring a claim that isn’t valid which was unlikely at the time and virtually impossible by now).[/li][/ul]
In the alternative, I’m the scum.
[ul]
[li]Day One, a medium sized faction starts to lynch Mosier, who was later revealed to be town. This faction was started by Astral, who unvoted and stated he would come back to it later. It’s joined by three townies when I begin mulling it over. After some hemming and hawing, I join in, stating I don’t think the lynch will happen and that the lynch isn’t the right thing to do. In this scenario, I’m the only scum voting for Mosier with four townies, so there’s plenty of room to hide among town. Instead, I unvote after the fifth vote comes in, risking extra scrutiny rather than waiting for Sario or sang to join in the mis-lynch. To believe that I’m the scum is to believe that I provoked extra scrutiny while actively making a mis-lynch less likely.[/li]
[li]Night One, Frank transports the scum targeted Astral. For this to be the case, scum would have to pass over the logical first choice target in Prof P and elect for Astral, who had been lobbying hard for a mis-lynch so hard he earned the nickname “Ronan the Accuser.” While skipping the first likely target may make sense if scum guessed there was a protector role (e.g. transporter, doctor), Astral doesn’t make any sense as a next target. He was lobbying hard to do scum’s job for them, so I don’t think me makes sense as a night kill target.[/li]
[li]Day Two, rather than joining in one of the lynches that already had momentum (e.g. Mosier, or anybody else with a vote already), I start a new lynch of Suburban. To believe I am scum is to believe that I didn’t join the mis-lynch of Mosier, which already had momentum and town indicating they would join in.[/li][/ul]
I don’t think the second scenario makes sense. It requires that I leave a lynch where scum motivations were sheltered, that scum target an unlikely NK on night two, and I initiate a lynch on a townie when I could have jumped on the existing lynch of Mosier, which appeared to have more momentum.
Scenario 1 makes sense. Astral is scum.
Well, that gives me something to think about, all right.
Pondering…
Hooker’s reminder of my post 139, indicating my reasoning of why I thought two players were town who turned out to be scum, is most significant to me. It signifies that logic as I apply it is not in line with the way the game is actually played.
This is somewhat humbling.
Still pondering…
Done pondering.
VOTE HOOKERCHEMICAL.
After all, he has Karl’s letters in his name: hooKeRchemicAL.
I realized I don’t have any real reason to think Karl would be responsible for the killings on his own as a player role, that that would be a very unusual game variant in a game where the many variation is in the storytelling itself. In that case, Astral was the intended first target. And that’s my best guess.
I’m still wondering who Theo blocked, and how that affected the game, though.
Karl is responsible based on the narration. It’s not explicit, but Karl was the hit man on Night One. There are subtle hints in the narration, like Riggs throwing out the gun to show that his ability is depleted.
Please reread these. Karl is always the killer. By roleblocking Astral, you roleblocked Karl.
Yeah, I did read them and re-read them and re-re-read them. Given the fact that absolute certainty is a chimera, it’s too much to read that every instance of an individual’s accomplishing something in the narration is a reflection of a player’s action. Dante would be much more likely to put in a Town character’s action as part of the plot-line, rather than Scum, IMHO. Riggs’s throwing away the gun may have given away more than Dante intended, which led to Tomba’s Nightkill, rather than Mahaloth’s.
The vote stands.
Town loses.