Democratic House Math

Remember back then Congress started in March, not January as it currently does.

Republicans: “We’re going to impeach Biden.”

Everyone: “For what?”

Republicans: “We’ll figure that out later.”

What is up with districts that still have really low vote totals counted? What is taking so long?

Sean Hannity has been screeching for Biden’s impeachment since before Biden entered office. Surely Republicans can conslut him for his secret list of high crimes and misdemeanors. I’m guessing he wore a tan suit at some point, and has probably forgotten to salute a Coastie Seaman Recruit, demonstrating his absolute contempt for the Constitution, the American Flag, and Tom Selleck’s mustache.

Stranger

Without even 5 apostates? When at least 20 come from moderate districts they won by the skin of their teeth?

I meant before the election. Oh, I agree they likely can’t pull it off now.

California is always slow. One reason is that it accepts ballots received up to a week after the election, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day.

New votes dropped in WA-03. Teeny tiny gain for the R candidate in a batch of over 15k votes. CNN has 97% in and the Dem up by 4,600+ votes.

This one might get called blue soon.

Seattle Times has called it.

This is a big win in a Trump +3 district.

Oh, well that explains it. Thanks.

I like it

So that’s one of the toss-ups going the right way. Keep 'em coming!

Are you sure you didn’t mean CO-03? :wink:

Updated (to the best of my ability to avoid typos) for approximately noon Mountain Time 11/13.

18 races left to be called, Dems need 12 of these for house control. I sorted the tables from easiest to hardest to get based on a two proportion z-test, and put a break int the table at the 12 mark.

Nothing is remarkably different from yesterday with the borderline exception of CA-41 which took about a 500 vote step in the wrong direction.

District Current Margin (%) Current Margin (votes) Est. vote in
ME-02 +5.3% +15,013 88%
CA-49 +4.6% +10,732 75%
CA-09 +12.6% +9,918 36%
CA-21 +9.2% +7,463 49%
CA-47 +2.6% +5,337 72%
CO-08 +0.7% +1,691 97%
OR-06 +1.9% +4,400 80%
AZ-01 +0.8% +2,541 90%
CA-13 -0.2% -84 46%
CA-41 -1.4% -2,108 53%
AZ-06 -0.4% -1,382 91%
CA-22 -5.0% -2,878 39%
*** *** *** ***
CO-03 -0.4% -1,122 99%
NY-22 -1.5% -3,925 94%
CA-03 -6.0% -9,962 51%
OR-05 -2.3% -7,199 93%
CA-45 -7.4% -12,252 63%
CA-27 -10.8% -14,861 53%

Seems to me that if the the math puts the republicans up at 219, the smart move might be for a handful of the more centrist republicans to throw behind pelosi. That would knock down the maga wing, and would get some up the middle legislation done.

As it stands now without a lead that would back bench that wing, the next 2 years will just be crazy maga drama in the committees. There are more up the middle people and should they throw behind someone who will hear them they could do some real legislating.

They could go back to a tight district and campaign on the fact that they worked for their people, got things done; rather than trying to deal with the fact that the maga wing went bonkers and lose the seat.

I don’t really see it happening but it should.

How would you expect these “centrist republicans” to survive their next primary after voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker?

And who are they? Name names.

The 4 who won New York. I don’t expect them to hold onto those seats next cycle.

Is it too much to hope they do it for the good of the country, the way Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger did? They could flip parties and hope to win as Democrats in 2024. Admittedly they’d probably lose either way, but maybe there’s two or three that just might consider it.

OR-05 gets a call. Not a surprise.