Predictit puts odds of a Clinton indictment at 29%. I’d note that’s the odds of an actual indictment. If the FBI recommends charges but the Justice Dept decides not to pursue charges, the political effect on her candidacy will be the same as if she actually was indicted.
This will all be wrapped up in the next 6 weeks or so – the FBI and Justice Department have no interest in interfering with the Presidential primary and election. On the off chance (and I think it’s an extremely low chance) that Hillary is indicted, it will be well before the Democratic convention.
Huh. GloryDays got hisself banned, I see. Wonder if he was a sock puppet or if they’re just banning pothering shitheads these days.
He was the guy with all the talkative “friends in Queens” who hate the Untermenschen, right?
Second best news I’ve read in this forum today.
Biden.
I’ve always liked uncle Joe and this year foot in mouth disease seems to be telegraphing as authenticity.
The FBI controls the show.
The FBI director and several senior career officers have indicated that they would resign in protest. This would reek of political corruption. The laws don’t apply to Hillary meme would be overwhelming.
If the US attorney prosecute a case that was recommended to them by the FBI the chances of indictment by a grand jury are like 99.99% that’s more than Ivory soap.
James Comey is not being influenced by the calender. He’s doing his job and he’ll do it on the timetable it takes to get all the facts, not based on the political calender.
Biden is not jumping into the race at this point. It’s too late. He had his chance and he opted out. No takesie backsies.
Sanders has been doing and polling well enough amongst Democrats and the general populace that in the event Clinton had to exit the race abruptly he would be able to step in relatively smoothly and uncontentiously. I don’t think he’s going to beat her in the primary under normal circumstances, but he’s certainly running a very strong and credible second place. The Democrats would be mad to try and shoehorn anyone else in this close to the election - it would piss off traditional Democratic voters and send the wrong message out.
It probably won’t even be an issue but if it is, I don’t think everyone who could have run this year but decided not to because Clinton was sucking up ALL the donors will abide by that rule.
Clinton crowded out all the other potential candidates this year. There are plenty of people that would have done better than Bernie if Clinton wasn’t running.
If the Republicans go to brokered convention, there will be plenty of room for anyone to jump in the race.
Yeah, but at this point is response is gonna be, "Gee, do I hafta?" 
Democrats can have a brokered convention as well. If Comey recommends indictment, or even if the final FBI report is damaging enough without going so far as to call for an indictment, there will be a lot of pressure on Clinton to release her delegates. If the GOP is having one, why not the Democrats? Can’t hurt, and it’s better than a fatally wounded candidate.
Although in that scenario I think there’s only one realistic candidate: Joe Biden. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats would go into the convention knowing exactly who they wanted.
On the very, very low chance this occurs, I think your analysis is mostly correct, though it could cause a bitter fight between Sanders and Biden, that would probably and hopefully be resolved behind the scenes, since they’re not too far apart, and don’t have Trump sized egos.
I think there’d be less of a fight than you imagine, since Sanders will be well short of a majority and will have demonstrated appeal only to white Democrats.
The fight would be about optics – trying to have a unified convention. But hopefully, in such a case, they’d work it out behind the scenes (probably with a veep pick that Sanders approved) for a unified floor vote.
Now that’s very likely I think. Biden/Warren. Unstoppable ticket, IMO.
The Republicans NEED a flawed candidate on the Dem side, badly. Clinton and Sanders both offer vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Biden doesn’t really have any serious vulnerabilities(his mouth stopped hurting him politically long ago and after the Republican race won’t even be an issue). And Warren can help drive progressive turnout and enthusiasm.
Much as I like Warren, she’s smart enough to know she can be more effective where she is than as Veep. If she were younger and was gearing up for a Presidential run later, sure, but at her age? Not gonna happen.
I maintain: not gonna be Biden, not gonna be Warren. But who knows? This election cycle has had plenty of surprises thus far.
That depends. She’s more effective as a VP than a Senator if the difference between her being VP and not being VP is Donald Trump as President.
Well obviously she did wrong. Any honest person with a clearance knows that. The only real question is will the government actually do anything about it.
There’s also a middle possibility depending on how the media wants to play it: the FBI doesn’t recommend indictment but issues a scathing report along the lines of, “This probably wasn’t illegal, but… damn.”, or “We believe the email account was set up to evade the Freedom of Information Act and recommend that this loophole be closed by Congress.” The FBI can still damage her significantly even if they don’t recommend an indictment.
just stop already!
No one is going to indict Hillary, or it would’ve happened already. Especially given how the GOP has two houses of Congress: if they really wanted to ruin her (or try harder than they did last October) then they could. Obama’s not gonna let it happen to: she loses, his legacy (and library donors/book advances) lose as well.
And even if she’s indicted, she can still run and be elected, provided she doesn’t get convicted. Presumption of innocence, lest ye forget.