The way I see it, we’ve got a pretty normal opening move, except for (a) Austria jumping on Italy (or at least apparently prepping to jump on Venice with everything he’s got), and (b) Russia doing everything except attack Austria.
Italy can take Tunis by fleet, and protect Venice with Apulia. That possibility forces Austria to go in to Venice with all 3 guns blazing - either that, or totally switching strategy and following WL’s advice. I’m betting he throws the kitchen sink at Venice. (It’s a shame he didn’t go with a more normal opening that could have gotten him Serbia and Greece easily, with Italy and Russia nonhostile and really only Turkey to worry about. But too late now.)
So if I’m Germany, I’m betting Munich doesn’t need protection from Austria (though perhaps from France). Thing is, if you’re France, and slip into Munich in F01, holding it is really difficult; you usually just make a permanent enemy out of Germany while sapping both your and Germany’s energy for several moves.
So if I’m Germany, I take the chance: go for Belgium and Holland, and figure Belgium’s gonna be a bounce with France. If someone stabs me in Munich, it’s probably France, in which case I still come out of 01 with 5 bases, and can push France out of Munich. (And there’s a longshot that France and Austria both grab for Munich, and I come up with 6 bases after 01.)
Meanwhile, I could contribute to a weak Russia by Den-Swe, holding overextended Russia (fighting with England in Scandinavia, fighting with Turkey, little chance of quickly victimizing Austria) to 5 units after 01.
Italy and Russia are the countries most hurt by the unorthodoxies in the opening. Germany, Turkey (who gets an easy Greece pickup in 01, with good chances at Serbia in 02), and France (who can join in feasting on Italy) are the likely beneficiaries. I’d love to be playing any one of the three in 1025.