Down Ticket Discussion Thread

While the Presidential election gets the all the glory and attention, there is no doubt that there is a lot riding on the outcome of the SEnate and House races. While the Democrats should make gains in the House it seems unlikley they will take it back, IMO.

As for the Senate, Nate Silver at 538 came out with his first Senate forecast and he makes it a 70% chance the Dems retain control thanks to surges in various states, most noticeably Massachusetts.

What are your predictions? How will the Presidential race affect down ticket voting?

Romney certainly isn’t helping the down ticket Republicans. A lot of candidates have been distancing themselves from Romney’s recent remarks. I don’t know how much that hurts them, but instead of being able to talk about their own race and their own policies, they have to spend time saying how they disagree with Romney. Candidates who’ve made statements include Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, Connecticut Senate candidate Linda McMahon, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne, and North Carolina congressional candidate Mark Meadows.

I don’t have any real predictions, other than it seems like a good chance that the Dems do keep the Senate. I’d like them to take control of the House but I don’t know how likely that is.

I think Silver’s model is more optimistic about the CT Senate race for the Dems than I’d have said, seeing the daily polls and media articles around the state. Chris Murphy’s flaws have really been exposed in the switch from House races to the big leagues, and it really feels like a straight toss up right now. I am fairly certain that Linda McMahon is an evil human being, but she has gotten pretty good at this campaigning thing by this point. I’m going to vote for Murphy, but only to vote against McMahon, and he certainly doesn’t motivate me enough to volunteer or donate. It’s also a very negative campaign on both sides, and a lot could come down to whether voters are more swayed or disillusioned.

Silver’s model gives Todd Akin a 40% chance of defeating Claire McCaskill in Missouri. However, I would not be surprised to see a much closer race with Akin even winning in spite of all his negatives.

What’s the latest on Brown-Warren? I had heard a few weeks ago that Brown was pulling away, but now I hear that he’s lost that lead? Is it still a toss-up?

Here’s an article talking about how Romney might be tanking the Republican chance to take the Senate.

According that article, Warren is ahead, but it’s close, and Brown might be having a comeback. Seems like it’s still a toss-up.