And they manage to get two Evil in one Turn. The multi-lynch gives the Town a lot of power if they get their act together. Too powerful, I think. The momentum has definitely swung in Good’s favor now.
There must be at least one Evil character left, else some Good character would have won now. If there’s exactly one Evil left, there’s about two mislynches left (maybe more, if the Curse rolls are in Good’s favor). If there’s two Evil, we’re at lynch or lose, assuming the worst.
There aren’t two evils left. If we’re at lynch-or-lose now, then we were as of last turn, too. But Evil clearly wasn’t prepared for an Evil win condition, since there was still an item in Chaotic Evil hands. Nor was Darth Sensitive’s being fingered part of a scheming Evil plot, since Darth, being Chaotic, would never have agreed to it, so ShadowFacts’s investigation of him was legit, which means that ShadowFacts is definitely Town. Cold comfort, perhaps, given that he’s Cursed.
I hate to monopolize this thread, but I’ve just realized that the presumed one remaining Evil made a particularly exquisite blunder. By stealing the Helm of Empathy from the Hoard, e’s made it easier for Town to investigate, not harder.
Let me explain. I’ve already explained my reasoning for there being only one Evil left, and I agree with sachertorte in the main thread that whoever stole the Helm is evil. That means that anyone who didn’t steal the Helm isn’t evil, which means that ZSophia is definitely Good. Furthermore, I think it’s safe to assume that she’s the last Chaotic Town left in the game: We’ve found about as many as one would expect, and any Chaotic who hasn’t declared yet is not playing for a Town win. So that means that if ZSophia investigates anyone, if she gets a result of Chaotic, either she targeted the helm-holder (and thus saw her own alignment), or she’s found a win-stealer. Anyone else left at this point will show up as Lawful.
She doesn’t have the elven boost to magic, but the Paladin’s investigation ability is naturally an even chance, so the probability works out the same. And she’s more trustworthy right now than sachertorte, which makes her a better investigator, and this also gives sach a perfect window of opportunity to use his Cure power. Plus, of course, Evil wasted at least one action grabbing that Helm (possibly more, if whoever it was attempted on previous turns, too). As icing on the cake, it also opened up the possibility of ShadowFacts finding someone with too many items, assuming he survives. So Evil just inadvertently helped Town.
Now we just have to wait until Friday to see if anyone in the game realizes this.
Clever idea, Chronos. That would work.
gah
I’m spoiled, so I’m trying not to overshare, but I do want to say that I think, in spite of their success yesterDay, Town is still headed down the wrong road. Behavior, people, it’s all about behavior, and you’re going to have a hard time trying to analyze the actions of an army of power roles and all these dueling percentages.
Take two steps back and look at behavior, and I think the Town should have this in a lock. But they’re not, and that’s surprising to me, given some of the players in the game right now.
One of my original design goals was to force the Town to look at behaviors and motivations by making power analysis prohibitive. And dependence on power roles a long shot. Like military plans and the enemy, Mafia design goals do not survive contact with players. 
Is there a flaw to sachertorte’s current plan? If everyone votes for everyone but themselves and Zsofia, sinjin would powerless to do anything about it. Right?
If every character votes for every other character, excluding only themself and Zsofia, then I can’t think how Evil can avoid the loss.
Multi-lynch is definitely over powered.
Um, storyteller, I think you slipped a spoiler there. The person you mentioned was one of my top two picks for scum, anyway, but “one of top two” is not the same thing as “certain”.
Regardless, I think your statement is correct: Under sachertorte’s current plan, I don’t think it’s possible for <remaining evil player> to foil it. The only way it can fail is if there is currently two evil players left, which is unlikely on multiple grounds. Even if there’s an undeclared Chaotic Good trying to steal the win, that person would not cooperate with Evil, nor vice-versa. And if Good has an opportunity to guarantee the win, I can’t see any argument for not doing so, even if it is a very… dramatic… method.
Crap, I didn’t mean to post that on this Board; I meant to post it elsewhere. I don’t think it can be edited as this point - sorry.
Hmm, the Evil character could claim Chaotic and refuse to go along with the plan. And Zsofia wouldn’t be able to help check that alignment claim. But that risks being Disintegrated as the most likely Evil.
Actually, I see one slight flaw in the Nuclear Option: Zsofia could try to steal a random magic item from the Hoard to secure a sole win for herself. This may be tempting because she knows the game will end this Turn under the Nuclear Option. If there were some uncertainty about the game ending, stealing an item would be noticed and acted upon on the next Turn (by Disintegrating her and the Evil candidate).
Could she do that, though? Stealing would occur after the Disintegration(s), right? So after the disintegrations, the Lawful Good win condition will have been met, and the game should end at that moment. No?
I guess the rules aren’t entirely clear on that, but I only evaluate victory conditions after all the actions are resolved.
Edit: and I see ShadowFacts has seen the trusting-Zsofia issue. I wondered if the LG characters would keep quiet and hope she not realize her options.
What incentive does he have to steal the win? I was under the impression that a Chaotic Good player–with no magic items–would win with a Lawful Good win as long as she’s still alive. If she steals an item, she’s just being vindictive, no?
(granted, if I were in her position, I’d be seriously considering it. But then again, I’ve been rooting for Evil this whole game)
Correct. However, for reasons best left to a psychologist, humans sometimes are vindictive to no benefit. Personally, I’d give her the benefit of the doubt until she gave me reasons otherwise, especially since she’s already declared and dumped the item she started with, and never used it to try to grab more.
Meanwhile, aren’t there supposed to be nachos or something in these Forbidden Threads? We’d better get some snacks in here quick, before the winners get here. Being disintegrated will really pique your appetite.
The Two-Evil case is not correct. If there are two Evil left, one of them could be Zsofia.
So I’m thinking about it, and if the Town generally believes Zsofia to be Chaotic Good as she claims, then they should not do the Nuclear Option.
The Nuclear Option will end the game. Zsofia can know this, and thus has no real reason to not shoot for the solo win by trying to filch an item. However, if she is Good, she has no way of knowing for certain if the player about to be disintegrated is Good or Evil if the Town disintegrates only one. Therefore, trying to take an item and steal a solo win would be a big risk, because if the player disintegrated is Good and the game continues, she’s stolen an item and might find herself lynched as a consequence.
Personally, I think the risk of a Zsophia win-stealing under the nuclear option is less than the risk of (miscellaneous screw-up) in the non-nuclear option, and I can think of multiple ways that could happen.
That said, I have to congratulate <evil player on whom I was previously spoiled> for finding and exploiting a weakness in sachertorte’s plan, when I had thought it impossible. Good is still the odds-on favorite to win, but Evil is at least putting up a good fight. More details when the game is officially over, if others haven’t figured it out yet.