As of 5:45 AM Eastern, when they shut off the live forecast, the New York Times was projecting a Trump popular vote win by 1.5%
I don’t think there are 5 million votes outstanding and if there are, she’s not going to get all of them.
There are probably more than 5 million outstanding actually (the western states that rely heavily on mail voting take forever to count), but you’re right that she’s not going to get all of them or enough to flip the popular vote (and if she does, it will be some anemic Al Gore-like percentage).
The only big state I see with a lot of votes outstanding is California. Right now it’s Harris 5.6 million and Trump 3.9 million with 58 percent of the vote in. Doing a little algebra suggests that the final total will be 9.6 million to 6.7 million. This will reduce the gap in the popular vote by 1.2 million.
In other words, Trump won the popular vote.
I called it too but not to certainty. Life is probabilities. It was a close election, as anyone should have known it was going to be. It wasn’t 1984.
I really don’t understand the people who predicted landslides for either candidate. I just find that sort of things mystifying.
As disappointed and worried as this result makes me it is not the slightest bit shocking. It was the likeliest result, and unfolded pretty much precisely as the polls said it might.
Canada’s cutting back on immigration, we’ve kind of screwed that process up lately. With due respect, maybe stay there and fix this, but if you must leave, by all means apply.
Man, I wish we were allowed to bet. It was so clear he had a better than even shot at winning the popular vote.
Interesting to note Harris failed in the Rust Belt, just as Clinton did, but the crushing extent of defeat in Florida and Texas is why she’ll lose the popular vote too.
He’s right.
The popular vote margin will almost surely be less than two percent by the time all the counting is done, well within the likely range of results the polls suggested. A lot of votes from California have to be added to the total, of which Harris will win the lion’s share.
In fact, many pollsters said this would be one of the closest Presidential races. Not really. Trump did not win the swing states by huge percentages, but did better than many thought, including winning the popular vote. Nor was Trump subtle about saying what he wanted to do - hopefully in practice this will be somewhat more muted. Fluoridation? Really?
The Economist gave the edge to Harris at the last minute. Far too much importance is given to the thousand one-percenters who pick up their phone to answer polls.
One can hope that the House race is close enough to add some balance. I do not think a Trump term is necessarily catastrophic. He will be hard on Canada, though at the moment this seems a good place to be.
Ohio has lost its collective mind.
We voted out one of the most effective senators (and genuinely great human) we have ever had for that fuck-stick Bernie Moreno. Because trump said to.
We voted away the chance to have a citizen’s commission which would draw up our congressional districts. The Republicans in charge have been drawing unconstitutional (as determined by our previously divided supreme court) maps since the 1980s. Now, they have cemented their power. How? The ballot language was intentionally written to be confusing to voters. I’ve read it. It’s awful. And it was a GOP office that wrote it.
Our supreme court was swept by the GOP. 6-1, in their favor. Jennifer Brunner is now the ONLY Democrat in state office.
Why? For the same reason so many people who have never stepped foot on a college campus, let alone OSU, use the word “we” when discussing their football team. They simply want to be on the “winning side.” It’s mob mentality at its finest, and it’s led by the least educated of them all.
They don’t realize it has real-life consequences.
The bulk of these idiots are being lied to, and they are lapping it up. All because they are being given permission to be hateful in the way that they want to. They will reap what they sow.
It was very close. 1.5% would be the closest popular vote margin since 2000.
The polls were a lot better at gauging where we were heading than the other bullshit like the rally crowds and the ground game and the vibes.
Nothing mattered, in the end. Not the probable dementia, the unfathomable ignorance, the emotional incontinence; not, certainly, the shambling, hate-filled campaign, or the ludicrously unworkable anti-policies.
The candidate out on bail in four jurisdictions, the convicted fraud artist, the adjudicated rapist and serial sexual predator, the habitual bankrupt, the stooge of Vladimir Putin, the man who tried to overturn the last election and all of his creepy retinue of crooks, ideologues and lunatics: Americans took a long look at all this and said, yes please.
I see Andrew Coyne is his chipper self in the Globe & Mail today (he goes on to describe refugees from American anti-immigrant camps, and the loss of Ukraine and possibly Taiwan).
There is no sense in understating the depth of the disaster. This is a crisis like no other in our lifetimes. The government of the United States has been delivered into the hands of a gangster, whose sole purpose in running, besides staying out of jail, is to seek revenge on his enemies. The damage Donald Trump and his nihilist cronies can do – to America, but also to its democratic allies, and to the peace and security of the world – is incalculable. We are living in the time of Nero.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems that Republicans hold all three branches of the US government:
1) both Legislative Assemblies (the Senate and the House);
2) the Executive (Trump’ and his team);
3) and finally the Judiciary branch (with the Supreme Court).
He’s got carte blanche to enact whatever is in his heart (did he run on a policy platform of any kind?)
I’m similarly torn this morning. Our family (me, wife, 15yo son, 13yo daughter) have been collectively working to get Harris elected for the past three months. Writing postcards, making donations as a family, my daughter and I knocked on doors Monday and Tuesday. I told them through it all how important it is to fight for things that matter. The way we win, I would say, is by working hard and doing what we need to do to reach every voter we can.
Well, fuck that. We (and I mean everyone from Harris’ top campaign team on down to our little household) did everything we could, and IT JUST DIDN’T MATTER! America preferred an incoherent, cognitively declining, racist, rapist, pant-shitting felon who tried to overthrow the government less than four years ago and has no vision for this country other than carrying out his own personal vendettas. Fuck it. I just don’t know what to tell my kids anymore. I don’t understand humans, I’m ashamed to be an American today, and I fucking hate this county.
Aside: I apologize to you @Smapti for sniping at you last night. Not my best moment.
ETA: My wife works in the same office as our pastor, and she said he was in tears this morning and dropped an f-bomb while describing his frustration. Just wanted to put out a reminder that Christians aren’t a monolith, and aren’t all celebrating the anti-Christ’s victory this morning, even the evangelical ones.
The final outcome in the House of Representative is yet to be determined, and is likely to be very close whichever way it goes.
Thank you. I will await for the votes to be counted.
It is almost a certainty that Trump will get 312 EVs. Not a landslide but way more than anyone thought possible.
I just turned 62 yo. The main thing I am taking away from this election is I think it highly unlikely I will see another Democrat elected President in my lifetime, even if I live to be 100.
I expect the Democrats will be purged. If there’s any future elections they’ll just be purely show ones.
Me too. Iḿ a teacher and am really sad at work today. I’m in “going through the motions” mode today.
The reality is that people just believed the economy is in bad shape. It isn’t, but they think it is.
It feels like we are on the edge of ww3 and this time no USA. Europe is on their own.