Yeah, remember that “be careful of a red mirage” stuff from a few weeks back, and we were like, screw that, we’re going to landslide this bitch. Nope, turns out those predictions were dead on.
Every time I think about the electoral college, it’s stupider. It seems quite likely at this point that Biden will win a substantial popular vote victory and a substantial EC victory… but with a ridiculously tiny actual margin of victory in votes. If this system didn’t exist and someone proposed it, you would laugh them out of the political science class.
I was initially so disappointed election night that I stayed off the Dope. But having thought about it for a day, the Democrats may have done about as well as they possibly could.
As someone who had Biden very low on my list during the primary, I’ll put forward that, in hindsight, he was probably the best chance to beat Trump. Trump’s turnout was amazing and totally unexpected from my perspective - I couldn’t imagine that he’d gain nearly as many voters as he did compared to what he got in '16. But so did Biden, and in exactly the right places. I doubt any of the other candidates could have done that. Well done to Biden’s campaign. It looks like a historic performance in light of everything we know now.
Democrats just massively increased their turnout compared to the last election. In raw numbers, the increase was huge, especially in the Midwest. But so was Trump’s. I’m very sad about what this reveals about the country. But in light of what this reveals about our flaws, Biden and his campaign really did terrifically. Well done.
I mean, it’s hard to say. What Biden really failed to do, imho, is excite and inspire people. Trump, for whatever insane reason, makes people FEEL something. I think some of the other dem candidates (Andrew Yang, Mayor Pete, Bernie certainly) inspire passion in the people who like them… which might well have translated to actually peeling off Trump support, which certainly could have helped with the senate, etc. Slow and steady seems to have won the presidential race, which is certainly the most important prize by far… but I certainly don’t think the dems should be patting themselves on the back for the election as a whole, and the buck does stop with Biden.
That said, if you told me 6 months ago “here’s the offer: we beat Trump guaranteed, but senate and house remain about the same” I would have taken that deal in a heartbeat.
Pennsylvania is still a possibility: Trump leads by 160K votes at the moment, but only 89% of the vote, or a total of about 6.2 million, has been counted. So let’s say another 650,000 votes remaining. If Biden gets enough of those, he could take it. Rumors have it that most mail-in ballots in PA are for Biden. I won’t count on him taking PA but it’s distinctly possible.
George… the county-by-county map shows that most of the state is 98% or more counted; the only really likely swing would be some of the Atlanta counties. Trump is ahead by 30K votes statewide.I think virtually all of the uncounted votes in the Atlanta area would need to go for Biden for him to take the state.
No real hope of Biden taking NC. He’s 80K behind Chump and the major blue areas (Charlotte, the Triangle area, Asheville, the Triad area) don’t look to me to have enough wiggle room. Most are pretty far along in the count; Orange County (our former stomping ground) being one notable exception, but it’s not all that populous. I think almost all remaining mail-in ballots would need to go blue to take it.
Nevada is a concern: Biden leads by only about 8,000 votes there - but the only two counties that are blue right now are Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) - which have most of the state’s population. The other counties, which are ALL red, would have to have most of their uncounted ballots go for Trump. I haven’t done the math yet but if their ratios all remain the same as additional ballots are counted, they might take the state red but I’m counting on Vegas and Reno to carry the day since there are a lot more votes uncounted there.
How many more votes are expected from AZ tonight? Enough to, if they go to Biden, to give him a 90% plus chance of winning it? This afternoon, when I saw Biden had won MI and WI, I was very confident. Don’t want to go to bed again not knowing
According to the AP, Trump’s lead in GA is down to 0.4%. With around 2% left to report.
How fast has this puckered up in GA?
85% reporting: +6.4 Trump
88% reporting: +5.1 Trump
93% reporting: +2.6 Trump
97% reporting: +1.2 Trump
98% reporting (now): +0.4% Trump
The current separation is just under 23,000. Not sure how many ballots left to count, but it’s not gonna take much more for this to move into blue territory, I would think
Based on the best state votes I could readily get (and they are now a bit out of date) , if all the states ECVs were allocated proportionately rather than winner takes all the count would be DEM 272 GOP 266.
Yeah but Biden’s best county by percentage, DeKalb, is now done. His #2 and biggest in total numbers, Fulton, is purportedly down to its last 20,000. It’s going to be a hard lift - I think Biden may not quite make it. But I’m pretty sure Georgia is heading for recount city no matter who wins.
It seems there is no automatic recount in Georgia. A candidate can request a recount if the certified vote is within 0.5%. Currently it seems the difference is 0.5% (although it seems that will probably lower as more votes are counted).
So even with that very narrow window a recount in Georgia is almost guaranteed no matter where it lands.
Ptotesters were dwindling in AZ, now some are showing up armed. Well let them. Fucking morons showing up at 1:30 AM making a statement. Big bad men defending democracy. We will see more of this, right now I am not worried it will be more than a few isolated incidents. But I’ve been wrong about just about everything else so far. Well except for PA WI and MI
