CNN is reporting that Clark County (Las Vegas) reporting in made Biden’s lead shrink. But… unless that’s only some sort of partial accounting (like only election day voting) that sounds implausible.
Arizona plus either Michigan or Georgia. Pretty simple.
Or Pennsylvania or NC? Does any of the 4 take him over?
It’s the same day numbers that are coming in later. The early vote there was all Biden heavy mail-in, the wait is to see if the same day erodes that lead.
PA makes it a lock with 20 votes. NC falls one short of 270 if they lose both GA and MI’s 16 votes.
AZ+WI+NC+NV makes it a 269-269 tie if my math is right.
If he loses PA? Then Arizona plus the second district of Nebraska. Assuming he holds on to MI (and NV, as you posited).
No matter what happens, the country has lost. Republicans kept the Senate and gained seats in the House. I heard a Trump supporter whose father died of Covid-19 and still supported him. If he wasn’t such a lunatic, I would almost relish seeing him have to deal with Covid-19 and the economy but he just doesn’t care and is totally lacking in empathy so he would not care. If Trump does win, I wonder how he will justify holding more huge rallies? He can’t run in 2024 unless he loses so he can’t call it campaigning. I am glad that I at least live in a state that is now fairly reliably blue. The more the Republicans in the Senate turn decisions back to the states the more I know that my rights will be preserved and I will have a secure base to fight for those in more restrictive states.
I’m pretty sure that AZ and NV are the most likely Biden wins right now. His lead is pretty safe there assuming no fuckery. Most likely scenarios will have those two. PA plus any one other state is a win. WI plus any of MI, GA or PA is enough.
Following the commentary on 538:
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In Michigan the biggest block of uncounted votes are in Wayne County, which are likely to favor Biden in a big way.
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In Wisconsin it’s Kenosha that is yet to be fully tallied, and we’ll have to wait and see. If the overall margin of victory is <1%, there’ll be a recount.
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Nevada allowed postal voting right up to yesterday, so there may be a late bump for Biden as those are received even though the gap is currently narrowing.
I’d love for Biden to win Pennsylvania but I’d also love for him not to absolutely need it.
This is false according to MSNBC. Wisconsin has no automatic recount mechanism.
I didn’t say an automatic one. But either candidate can request one, and either one will almost certainly do so.
Not required to grant it. Not sure who makes that call.
Associated Press has Biden at 238 EV’s. Nevada (6) and Wisconsin (10) moves him up to 254. He’ll need to pick up Georgia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, or North Carolina and the 1 EV still up for grabs in Maine.
How often are Nebraska’s and Maine’s unusual split electoral votes the deciding factor, I wonder.
Nevada being so close baffles me. There was this massive turnout in 2018 as a show of anti-Trump sentiment that turned pretty much everything in the state blue. Federal senators and representatives, state senators and representatives, it was a clean blue sweep in my district and I think most of the city areas of Nevada (and Vegas and Reno account for like 80% of the state).
Nevada accepts mail in ballots until the 9th or 10th, so if it goes to that… it’s going to get ugly. This thing dragging out that long is only going to make Trump more desperate and crazier.
Pretty sure never. New way for the Electoral College to be a laughing stock.
NE last split in 2008 but it wasn’t remotely a deciding factor.
Trump is again ahead by 200,000 votes in MI
Apparently they are doing vote dumps in a largly partisan manner. Sort, count GOP, count Dem. So it leads to weird increase and reductions
I’m glad you added that explanation. A chill ran down my spine
78-92% votes in is a pretty wide range. Where are they getting these numbers? I assumed the polling stations submitted the number of ballots that were issued at their location, so we knew the total number of ballots before they were officially counted. But there are some reports in the thread that they had to revise the number of expected ballots upwards in the middle of the count, and now we have ranges which means the number is estimated rather than known, so I’m wondering how this whole “number of precints reporting” works.