Senate was always going to be close, but the climate seems to have shifted somewhat toward the GOP. I think the “illegal ISIS immigrants carrying Ebola” fear environment is good for GOP turnout, and just enough of an x-factor to goose a couple of close races. So I say 52-48 once everything shakes out in December.
And it won’t really matter, either way. There is no longer any practical difference between being in the majority or the minority by a few votes. It will have a marginal effect on executive appointments, but even then not much. Any sufficiently large fight–like a Supreme Court seat–will still be the same as major policy changes, requiring a centrist coalition for which it doesn’t much matter whether 1 or 2 centrists are technically Dems or technically Republicans. The only effect will be fewer spots filled in lower courts and low-level executive appointments, and maybe marginally more government shutdown fights.
That’s only if he manages to survive his own race, where he is being challenged by HA HA HA HA HA. I almost said that with a straight face. No chance in hell of a Dem winning any state-wide election in Tennessee.
You forgot PA. Corbett’s got Christie campaigning for him, but that’s not going to be nearly enough.
That said, Corbett’s biggest problem is Corbett. He was the guy who made the decision not to prosecute Jerry Sandusky when he had the opportunity; he can’t get his own agenda passed in a Republican-majority legislature; and he tried to sell the state lottery to a private company, which the (Democratic) attorney general put a stop to. While he may not have raised taxes, he hasn’t exactly been living up to the “spend” part, either; several state agencies are so seriously underfunded that they basically can’t fulfill their missions, and Philadelphia went looking for alternative funding to restore some of the funding for public schools. Corbett also turned down the Medicaid expansion until about a month or so ago, but applications for that won’t be accepted until December 1st, when it’s going to be too late for his career.
Senate:
1)West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa, Colorado, Montana flip D to R
2) No states flip R to D
3) Greg Orman wins in Kansas, Larry Pressler wins in South Dakota
Result: 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Independents* who’ll decide which party controls the Senate
*I realize Sanders is officially an independent, but there’s no chance he won’t be caucusing with the Democrats, so I’m including him as part of their 48 seats.