So, what’s with the slowdown? Typical end-game ennui? One side thinks they’re doomed and the other thinks it’s in the bag? Since the moderator hasn’t ended the game, I presume there’s a path to victory for both sides.
I’m tempted to be spoiled, but I want to be able to honestly adjust my scum list in case things happen.
Game’s nowhere close to over on either side. I don’t think it’d be possible for the game to end, realistically, until Day Ten or Eleven, and there’s no reason on earth it couldn’t go longer than that.
Which means my game design is flawed, but nothing to do about that now.
Pleonast, I’d be interested in knowing your reasoning for suspecting amrussel is scum. He’s on the table for lynching today and I’d like to know the reasons. My personal feeling is amrussel is Town. My reasoning is not very specific and stems from a general feeling of helpfulness that I don’t get from anyone else. Then again, over-helpfulness is the mark of scum, but I don’t think that is the case with amrussel.
storyteller, the game is going to be ridiculously long because peekercpa and Blaster Master managed to get themselves killed on Day 2 and 4. It is clear you timed the game expecting 2-3 kills per night for the first several nights and only got… 1 night of multiple kills. Yikes! I’m not sure you can attribute that to game design as ‘unlikely events’ explain the result clearly. At least from my perspective, as I don’t know the full set up. But I would think that putting 2 SK in the game, one would expect more death!
I think the slowdown is the combination of game ennui and dead talkative players. The living players have been playing the same role for 6 cycles. That’s pretty much the point where interest starts to wane. Opinions have been made, and very little at this point will change them. Town has never really embraced putting people in the spotlight just to see what they do. Instead they will spend the next few days talking about amrussel and only amrussel. Maybe they will talk a bit about one other player, but most will not get discussed at all.
To some extent I don’t blame them. Of the remaining players, I only have opinions on amrussel (Town), JSexton (Scum), brewha (Scum). I haven’t been paying attention to much else. I don’t think I could even name 5 other living (non-confirmed) players.
Translation: There are 4 scum left.
I don’t know if the following gives anything away or not. I don’t name names or anything but just for safety:
I would say that the next 2 lynches will decide the winner though. If town lynches well once in the next 2 Days they can win (I think). If both of their next lynches are bad then, while they could still technically win, I don’t think they will have enough momentum to pull it off from a psychological standpoint.
Well, as I commented with Cookies’ list (MHaye, JSexton, amrussell, brewha), I think most of that list is scum.
JSexton would be my highest lynch candidate. His whole operating mode this game has been to attack others’ arguments while not putting any forward himself. The way he and I were arguing and then his total back off, including his response to amrussell’s accusations just reeks of scum trying to avoid the spot light.
But, amrussell didn’t pursue him any more. And that is what makes me suspicious of both. I get the feeling of scum having little spats with each other and then avoid each other. It keeps the distance between the two. So if JSexton comes up scum, amrussell can point out how he worked to that end. Just as I thought NAF was playing anti-Town but had a pro-Town vibe, I think amrussell is playing pro-Town but gives me an anti-Town vibe.
brewha, I’m less sure about. I only have a hunch. The great thing about being dead (or a Vig 
) is not having to work out good cases. But I think these three players should be lynched in the order given here.
The Mafia Gods seem to enjoy toying with mods who expect lots of kills. In Batman, it was theoretically possible for something like 12 of 25 players to be dead by Day 3. Instead, there were 0 – zero! – Night kills total after two Nights.
I think it would make great stick figure theater. A room full of people (some of them in pointed party hats. hey…it’s my fantasy) strange gun-like objects fall from the ceiling into the hands of a few. These individuals curiously inspect their mystery objects, and end up managing to empty the clips while barely missing themselves and all of the other people in the room, whether they’re looking down the barrel or holding it point blank to the head of their neighbor. Once the guns are empty, everyone forgets about them and starts talking. A loud growl is heard and suddenly the whole room is crushed under a large and frustrated foot.
I don’t buy that a bit. You had moi who flamed out for non game reasons. You had blam whose posts screamed lynch me. I hadn’t even been following the game and although I had some inside information it was so apparent. Sheesh check offboard.
And now anyone who posts gets to take center stage.
Yeeps.
One scum poster and agitator. Two scum lurkers. If town can get the poster and then focus on which lurker starts posting they’ve got it bagged.
Don’t think it will play out that way, however.
I think it was around 14-16 could have died after 2 days, and like the game could have gone into LyLo by Day 3 or 4… Yeah. That was Worst Case Scenario #1 actually…
But that totally backfired with all the no-kills, blocks, and the freezing of the game sorta abilities. It always seems to happen that the SK either ends up just lurking to the end, or he ends up dying really early so factoring him in to be a major killer didn’t really work out in my favor that game. Though it was still amusing, that I had promised such a deadly and bloody game… and No one died. Both **Dio **and I were surprised by that one- we never thought about that.
And there was Santo’s I’ll try to act townie by killing off Story the Doctor because he’s acting like Batman Ploy that hilariously backfired on his hopes of gaining townie credit to act like a Vig…
That was a Hilariously great game to watch spoiled. 
Heh, heh. You’re welcome.
Ahh fond memories of a newbie. Nothing quite like being thrown into the deep end of the pool and being told to swim.
Although, I came to develop a dislike of townie blockers at the end of that game. Fortunately, my blind shooting only hurt Town once. (And my mass freeze prevented Rysto from becoming PFK, which really would have handed the game to scum or possibly even him as he would have changed alignments to PFK. It’s always better to be lucky than good.)
Oh, and it’s not your fault the game will last long, Story. As others have said, one kill from two SK’s is a fluke.
Why don’t we do full game lynch analysis anymore? I haven’t done one, so I don’t know if it’s actually worthwhile but, why not do a lynch analysis like (I think it was) Natlaw’s analysis of the Hal Briston lynch for every lynch and then check to see the common threads. It might not net every scum, but I strongly suspect that at least one of the scum will show up multiple times in medium/high profile positions.
I think Pleo and BlaM used to do these regularly. Is the reason we have stopped doing them because Pleo and Blam are now getting killed early when they aren’t scum?
I’ve never been one to put a whole lot of weight into these vote analyses. If anything, it is easier for scum to vote for scum since they can judge whether or not that scum is going down or not. The only time such analysis has meaning is when there is a close vote and Town knows that one was scum and one was Town. MHaye is the only instance where that has happened in this game, and that situation is complicated by his role-claim.
Furthermore, if I recall correctly, Pleonast used his vote analysis to justify his votes while being scum. Conveniently, his analysis only pointed to fellow scum once. The votes themselves are not a good basis to judge. The circumstances and tone of the voter are much more important. (Words, not action!)
Also, with so many players not voting, vote analysis would be pretty pointless.
Well, I was killed early this game and I don’t know the reason yet, being unspoiled, but in the previous game, SDMB Mafia, I tried doing an analysis, but it wasn’t working too well. For two reasons, I think: works best when there’s 5+ plus Days to look at and when there’s Scum as well as Town lynches to look at. This game at this point would seemingly be perfect for it.
And even if no one wants to do a computation like I do, simply listing the final vote counts colored by known alignments would help substantially. Even non-analytic players can look at colored counts for patterns.
I wonder why no one looks at who recently deceased Townies were going after. Do Scum no longer kill players who are on the right track? Smart Scum will avoid obvious things like that, but it must be terribly tempting to off a player who’s made a good case against a Scum who’s otherwise looking clean.
To defend my analysis, it’s simply a formalization of looking for patterns in the votes. It’s only as good as the player looking for patterns. When I was Scum, I was intentionally warping the results by implicitly including my own (false) Towniness.
Even if you don’t like the numbers I put in it, I think you’ll agree the colored lists are at least somewhat helpful.
I agree, and I also agree that now is the time that they would be of the most use. 2 scum lynches, with a third almost lynch of scum. That’s three strong data lynches out of 6 finished Days and a whole lot of players who’s alignment is now known.
Like I said, I don’t know if it would actually net anything, but I suspect it would pin at least one scum to the mat and be a decent data point against any other scum that might be out there.
I’m changing my mind on brewha. I now think both brewha and amrussel are Town.
Interesting, why the change?
I kind of use the whole vote analysis as the point tipper.
If someone has been posting oddly then their votes can tip my conclusion one way or another.
But as a sole or main tool, not so much.
Typically I wait for the worm in the bottle to speak.
I loved doing Vote Analysis, at the start of every day I’d make sure to compile the vote Data and the information and everything- color coding scum/townies, and giving my thoughts.
Only thing is- I did that when I was Town AND when I was scum. Sure, it might incriminate some scum, but it’d get me townie cred always. And since I was the guy doing the Vote Analysis, I ALWAYS knew how the votes turned out, and could adjust my votes for the future…
Basically the Vote Analysis is a great tool if used by Town. When used by competent scum, it makes it so that scum rarely gets caught, and when used by greedy scum, it can make sure that NO Scum get caught…
I personally just like earning townie cred for myself regardless of what role I play- so I don’t mind bussing a few scum if I must… But yeah, whoever does that analysis always comes out smelling like roses.
Exactly the reason more players should do the voting lists. If several players are posting their voting analyses, it’s that much harder for the scummy one to manipulate the conclusions.