PPR league, should I start Vick (vs Colts) or Fitzpatrick (vs Bears)?
Vick. The Bears’ D is still rather good.
Fun fact: Antonio Gates has as many fantasy points as the #2 and 3 tight ends combined.
Here’s a question that’s more long term, rather than week 9 focused.
The person who had Austin Collie dumped him after the hand injury, Collie is now on waivers. The soonest Collie will be back is week 10, quite possibly 11 and maybe 12. However, he’s an outstanding player, and I’d like to pick him up while he’s injured and others are less interested in him.
Here’s my roster: Peyton Manning, Deion Branch, Pierre Garcon, Steve Smith (NYG), Steve Smith (Car), Vernon Davis, Matt Forte, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, LeGarrette Blount, Stephen Gostkowski, and Chicago D/ST.
1.) Should I drop someone and get Collie?
2.) If so, who?
3.) If so, when?
For question 2, I would lean towards dumping Carolina’s Smith. He’s great, but with the Panther’s problems on offense, he isn’t reaching his full potential. My second choice would probably be Blount, but I’d like to keep my RB options as open as my WR options are currently and I think Blount is probably going to stay strong as the season goes on. Third choice would be NYG Smith. He’s produced some decent numbers on receptions and yards and has been consistent, if not outstanding, but he’s not the go-to guy in the redzone, so his lack of TDs brings him down. Branch is also an option since the Patriots have a wide choice of great receivers similar to the Giants.
As to question 3, I’ve got plenty of depth, so I’m thinking to do this ASAP, since having a little dead weight won’t really hurt me.
Thoughts/advice?
(I am a Colts fan, but the only guy I went out of my way to get was Manning in the first round of the draft. Garcon kinda fell into my lap late in the draft since he was one of the better WR left. I got Addai for Jay Cutler since I didn’t have much depth at RB early in the season and it isn’t like I needed another QB with Peyton Manning heading up my team. I do like having Colts players on my fantasy team since they’re the team I follow the closest and know the most about, but with their level of talent it isn’t like I’m making a boneheaded mistake by grabbing more than 1 or 2.)
Avoid Fitzy. The Bears are coming off a bye and the defense is up against it. They are liable to open up a can of whoop ass this week and the Bills defense isn’t good enough to force the shaky Bears offense into giving up short fields. Plus that game is in Toronto and if memory serves the Bills tend not to really excel there, at the very least you can write off any supposed home field advantage.
I’m not in love with Vick either, but with the Colts on a short week going on the road should help. Vick’s mobility ought to hurt Freeney and Mathis’s effectiveness and I suspect that their Cover 2 will leave lots of scrambling room when he steps up. The Colts secondary was pretty poor, especially in tackling, this week and that might benefit the Eagles YAC.
I’d leave Collie on the waiver wire. I don’t like him better than any of your current players and there’s a real chance that Gonzalez locks up that role before Collie gets healthy again. Of the guys to drop I think I’d lean towards the Giants Steve Smith if you must. Both Steve Smith’s are feast or famine type players this season and of the two I think Carolina’s has the higher upside. You don’t have enough reliable RBs to risk dumping any of them, so I’d stay away from losing any of those guys.
Need someone for my flex position. Either:
Michael Bush vs KC
Ronnie Brown vs Bal
or
Fred Jackson vs Chi
Oddly enough, Bal has the worst rushing Def of the 3, but Brown is underachieving. I’m leaning toward Jackson as he has emerged as the #1 in Buff.
Brown. Bush can’t keep up his current level of performance long as long as McFadden is the one getting the carries, and KC’s run defense is stiff. Chicago’s is stiffer.
Yeah, Ronnie Brown. He’s disappointed thus far but he’s facing the weakest of the defenses and has the most upside. Brown could have one of those monster games that gets him drafted in the top 10, neither Jackson or Bush are likely to go off. I’d say Bush is the second best option the way the Raiders have been playing, you con probably could on him for 6 or 7 fantasy points and maybe a TD and he’s got the smallest chance of being totally shut out of the 3.
Thanks for the quick responses.
Two things I forgot to mention:
- Its a PPR league, so short throws to the RBs add up, even if not for many yards
and - I have Balt’s Def. So the better Brown does, the worse Balt’s Def does. Hopefully Brown can rack up some yards and and catches, but not get in the endzone (too often).
Immaterial. Brown is going to do whatever he does regardless of whether or not you start him, so if Baltimore and Brown are your best options, they’re your best options.
Or you could just drop Baltimore’s defense. They stink in fantasy this year, but people are so enamored of the Baltimore name that they refuse to dump them.
Pick 2- Cedric Benson vs PIT, Matt Forte @BUF, LeGarrette Blount @ATL, Joseph Addai* @PHI
I think Forte is a given, unless you guys know something I don’t. For the other spot, I’m leaning towards Blount. The Steeler’s defense, especially against the run, along with Benson’s mediocre performance lately are the biggest factors. I like how Blount is playing recently, and he seems to be turning into TB’s feature back. Thoughts/suggestions?
*-Addai didn’t practice again Wednesday, so he’s probably out for the week.
ETA: One more question. Pick two- Steve Smith (NYG) @SEA, Deion Branch @CLE, Steve Smith (CAR) vs NO
Branch, probably, but I’m not sure what to do with the Smiths. I’m leaning towards NYG since CAR’s offense sucks, but NYG Smith doesn’t get the TD catches.
It’s not completely immaterial, since Brown and Baltimore are a hedge against each other. If you’re in a matchup where you’re a big underdog, it can make sense to start a player with a lower expected amount of points than Brown, because it gives your team a higher possible upside.
That’s true, but the OP didn’t say that was the situation he’s in. In any event, if he has Ronnie Brown as a flex, I highly doubt he’s a big underdog.
Drew: Forte, Blount, and the Smiths.
Note that Blount comes with risk: Atlanta’s offense is pretty hot right now, and the Buccaneers are a young team. If they get down big, Blount will be a non-factor, because he can’t pick up the blitz or catch passes.
I’m struggling with playing Favre (thin and banged up receiving corps) vs. AZ, or Stafford (looked pretty good first game back) vs. a tough NYJ defense.
Atlanta is good at stopping the sort of runner Blount is. I’m still probably going to roll with him over Ronnie Brown though, who hasn’t done anything this year.
I understand the reasoning behind the RBs, but Carolina Smith against NO over Branch against CLE? Is Branch banged up or something?
Even given that, and RNATB’s comment on the risk, I admit to being too terrified of PIT’s defense to bet against them by playing Benson. I don’t think its the most irrational belief to hold. 
Yeah, I’d probably start Blount over Benson.
To answer my own question, ESPN is reporting Branch as questionable. He didn’t perform too well last week with the same injury, so the advice to bench him is sounder than I thought. And even if he plays, Yahoo is projecting him at ~9 points, while NYG Smith is ~9.5 and Carolina Smith is ~11. For the curious, my 1st WR slot was reserved for Pierre Garcon. Considering his talent and the injuries the Colts have in the receiving corps, Garcon was an obvious choice. Vernon Davis is unavailable for my flex spot due to SF’s bye.
Here’s another question, mostly academic as I don’t plan on following through. It’s more of a test to see if my knowledge and instincts are good. I currently have Stephen Gostkowski at K. Rob Bironas is available on the waiver wire. Should I dump Gostkowski for Bironas next week after TEN’s bye? NE’s offense provides steady XP attempts, but is not too many FGs. TEN is also pretty good, but they’re settling for the more valuable FGs. I don’t think the addition of Randy Moss won’t have too drastic an effect (With Kenny Britt injured, I figure Moss will act mostly as a replacement for him until he’s healthy, then becoming the deep threat he usually is.). Yahoo projects Bironas to produce slightly more fantasy points than Gostkowski, but no more than .5 or so on most weeks, with the occasional 1 point difference.
My gut says to stay with the sure thing and rely on the Pats’ offense. The value of NE’s consistency outweighs the possibility of a small bump in points from switching. Even though the Titans are talented, they’re more volatile: How will Moss affect the team on and off the field? Which Vince Young shows up each week, serious or immature? Overall, it looks best play it safe. Gostkowski is doing a fine job and the payoff for switching, even if all goes well, is too small to justify the risk.
Thoughts/analysis as to why I’m right/wrong are appreciated.
IIRC, Benson rushed for 100 yards in both his games against Pittsburgh last year, so the matchup’s not that bad.
Yes, and he hasn’t done *anything *since his strong first week with the Pats.