Forbidden Forest - Unspoiled Harry Potter Mafia Discussion

[Red_Skeezix]

@Lamia

Red Skeezix, if you don’t mind my asking, what was the point of your false claim? I’ve been wondering if you thought your character’s power would protect your true identity even in death. Otherwise I can’t see any benefit to it, unless you were just having fun messing with people once it was obvious you were going to be lynched.

This is the first Mafia game I’ve followed for a while, and I sure did pick an unusual one!

There are several reasons why, but I don’t want to discuss them much here as this is the unspoiled thread. Feel free to speculate though, but I’m not gonna confirm or deny any of that stuff, here.

[Lamia]

Okay, I wasn’t sure about the rules for these threads. But I take it your refusal to answer means you weren’t just messing with the Townies.

…unless you were just messing with them and are messing with us now! :eek:

[Chronos]

Yeah but my claim in Cecil Pond was not designed to get me killed, that was me being dumb and forgetting about the vig claim that story had made.

For what it’s worth, I didn’t see the implications of that one in advance, either. I just figured “Well, if they believe him, then he’s safe, because he’s no threat to anyone”.

[Lamia]

Just for fun, here’s my speculation about Red Skeezix’s motives for false-claiming (in no particular order):

1. He figured he was doomed no matter what he said, but believed his true role would not be revealed upon his death. Maybe he knew he’d show up as non-Town, but not specifically as Scum or as the Voldemort/Godfather role. By claiming a non-Town role he could potentially confuse the Townies long-term (I see at least two things in his claim post that could lead the Townies astray) and discourage them for checking his previous posts for any “tells” that would give away other Scum.

2. He saw the odds were against him, but thought he might escape lynching by seeming anti-Scum:

I would reveal the targets but at this point due to oni getting me lynched, I’m thinking “Fuck scum, I’m not going to possibly out any town powers.”

This doesn’t seem terribly likely to me since he was claiming a role that’s inherently anti-Town and has an exclusive win condition. Maybe the Townies would have offered to let him live, at least temporarily, if he’d agree to use his power to kill suspected Scum at night…but they’d have to be pretty dumb Townies. I can’t see myself accepting that bargain if I were in this game. If the Town did make the deal then it would seem suspicious if the Scum didn’t take him out ASAP, although if there is a Doctor role then this person might have been persuaded to protect “Fenrir”, thus wasting the ability.

3. He figured he was doomed, and false-claimed to protect the real Fenrir. (Either he believed his true role would be hidden upon his death, or he figured no one would suspect there was a real Fenrir if someone had already false-claimed it.) In the books, Fenrir was allied with the Death Eaters. This might also be true in the game. If there’s a Fenrir character in the game he might be considered a Scum power role, be a Scum-friendly power role with access to the Scum board, or Skeezix might have known about him just because he’s Lord Voldemort. The Fenrir character may be significantly different from what Skeezix claimed, so even if it becomes obvious that there is a Serial Killer character the Townies might be led astray by what Skeezix posted. The thing that jumps out at me immediately is that he said Fenrir was NOT aligned with the Death Eaters. If there is actually a Fenrir character I think it’s more likely that he IS in league with the Death Eaters.

4. He was planting the seeds for a false Doctor claim by someone else later. He said he’d tried to kill on both nights but that his targets had been protected. A Scum player could be pretty convincing as a Doctor, and it would be bad for the Town if they fell for it or if the real Doctor were compelled to “out” himself. This ploy would work better if Skeezix either lived or his role did not become apparent upon his death, but his post might still influence the Townies even if they discovered he was Voldemort when he died.

5. He figured he was doomed and decided to have some fun, but doesn’t want to admit it here.

[Mahaloth]

@sachertorte

If I had the time and game investment, I would look back at all edited posts and see who did what. Apparently whoever edited prior to Mad-Eye Moody is TOWN!

Meh. I meant “player” and wasn’t thinking of who did it before when I wrote it. I wouldn’t put too much into it.

And, I think it was snickers(who was replaced by Ninja).

Again…meh.

[sachertorte]

@Mahaloth

Meh. I meant “player” and wasn’t thinking of who did it before when I wrote it. I wouldn’t put too much into it.

And, I think it was snickers(who was replaced by Ninja).

Again…meh.

Actually you should be worrying about it. You made a statement as the moderator of the game. One that doesn’t merely imply that a previous townie edited, but outright states it. That you meant “player” is irrelevant. The participants can only act on what you say, not what you mean.

Snickers edited a post after being replaced. He was no longer a player and not subject to the no editing rule.

Rysto, an active player who is still alive, edited post #180.

Mahaloth issues his warning in post #246.

In post #349 Mahaloth states:
“I have realized another Townie has edited their post.”

The conclusion here is Rysto is Town. If Rysto is not Town, then the implication is that the moderator has lied, which is very very bad.

Furthermore, if Rysto is scum then you will have mod-killed a Town player while allowing a scum player to live having violated the same rule. Also not a great thing.

My conclusion is that Rysto is Town and that he is mod-confirmed Town. I fully expect someone to reach this conclusion on their own as well.

[Mahaloth]

@sachertorte

Actually you should be worrying about it. You made a statement as the moderator of the game. One that doesn’t merely imply that a previous townie edited, but outright states it. That you meant “player” is irrelevant. The participants can only act on what you say, not what you mean.

Uh, calm down. Have some dip. Massage your temples, perhaps.

[Hoopy_Frood]

@Lamia

Just for fun, here’s my speculation about Red Skeezix’s motives for false-claiming (in no particular order):

1. He figured he was doomed no matter what he said, but believed his true role would not be revealed upon his death. Maybe he knew he’d show up as non-Town, but not specifically as Scum or as the Voldemort/Godfather role. By claiming a non-Town role he could potentially confuse the Townies long-term (I see at least two things in his claim post that could lead the Townies astray) and discourage them for checking his previous posts for any “tells” that would give away other Scum.

Not revealing who’s who without mentioning the game is setup that way ahead of time is Bastard. And any sort of partial and/or delayed reveal needs major compensation on the Town side, since deaths are the best way for town to get information.

(Note: The above statement does not apply when one runs an (explicitly stated as such) bastard game where everyone has a false reveal when they die and they are in reality all Serial Killers, though they don’t know that everyone else is a Serial Killer. Good times.)

[Lamia]

@Hoopy_Frood

Not revealing who’s who without mentioning the game is setup that way ahead of time is Bastard. And any sort of partial and/or delayed reveal needs major compensation on the Town side, since deaths are the best way for town to get information.

Well, the game obviously wasn’t set up that way since we all know Skeezix was actually Voldemort. I’m speculating that he may have misunderstood his character’s power. I don’t think this is terribly likely since it seems Skeezix was a fairly experienced Mafia player and Voldemort was apparently a pretty typical Godfather role, but his false claim is difficult to explain if he knew full well his true role would be revealed when he died.

[Rysto]

story is scum. story is clearly, clearly, clearly scum, and I can’t believe that they were lucky enough to kill me before I could say that toDay.

Fuck, I am so pissed off to be dead in this game.

[Rysto]

I’m also so pissed off that I didn’t protect Drain Night One. She was the obvious kill target. Stupid, stupid, stupid play by me.

[Rysto]

Ok, I’m calling it. storyteller and tiltachronos are the last two scum. This:

He was apparently a standard Godfather, meaning that with the investigator dead without having claimed any results, he was effectively vanilla Scum. This makes him the most expendable member of the Scum team, but there’s still an inclination among players to regard the Godfather as the least expendable Scum.

is basically an admission that the other scum aren’t vanilla.

[Rysto]

ShadowFacts mostly said what I was thinking. I’d add that in post 286, story subtly encouraged me to continue my pursuit of Freudian. It reminded me a lot of what he did to me in M2.

[Rysto]

sigh

One of the most annoying things about this group of mafia players is our tendency to lynch players who do incomprehensible things. One day – one day – we will realize that scum will never, ever focus attention of themselves like that. Until then, we will keep lynching townies for no good reason.

[USCDiver]

Mahaloth, can you send me a link to the spoiler boards if there are any? Sorry I didn’t sub, but I was busier than I thought recently, and every time I got your PMs the spot had been filled.

[Rysto]

Chronos is clearly lying and they need to lynch him for it. The only common scum power role around here is the Godfather. In Chronos’ own game there were no scum power roles at all!

[Mahaloth]

@Rysto

Chronos is clearly lying and they need to lynch him for it. The only common scum power role around here is the Godfather. In Chronos’ own game there were no scum power roles at all!

Was his the Scum Pond game?

[Rysto]

Yep.

[Rysto]

@Chronos

It’s my impression that around here, games structured around some canon generally have all of the Scum roles distinct, with (say) one Godfather, one Scum Roleblocker, one Scum Investigator, and one vanilla Scum

@Chronos

Oh, one other thing: Whenever the Scum team hits several power roles in a row, people always start thinking that the Scum must have an investigator. But just like with a town investigator, a scum investigator needs time to work. On the first investigation, a Scum investigator will either find a vanilla or a non-vanilla. If e finds something valuable, then the Scum team may well kill that player at the first opportunity, but it’s just as hard for the investigator to stumble across someone valuable as it is for the killer. And if the investigator finds a vanilla or someone else low-value (a weak power role, or possibly even someone who would hurt Town) on the first try, then all that tells the Scum is “kill someone other than that person”, and their chances are only slightly better than normal.

In real life, when Scum hit a lot of power roles, it mostly just means that they’re picking up hints that someone is non-vanilla, or even more likely, that they’re just lucky. Note that either of these would account for them hitting Snape (genuinely not vanilla, and luck can explain anything), whereas them having an investigator wouldn’t cast any light there (if they’d known, that’d be the last person they’d kill, just in case he decided to join them).

So which is it, Chronos? Is it your experience here that there is typically a scum investigator, or not?

Lynch him lynch him lynch him!

[Lamia]

This seems like scummy reasoning to me:

@Chronos

Did Red copy his role PM from a member of his team who’s the real Fenrir? No, because the role PM Red posted is for a third-party role, not a Scum. If there really is a Fenrir in this game, and he’s really a Scum, then the real role PM he got must have been substantially different from the one Red posted, at which point I don’t see how it matters that the name is the same.

Now, the Townies would be wise not to put too much faith in Red Skeezix’s false claim, because he was definitely lying about his own role and could easily have invented the Fenrir role himself. Or maybe there is a vanilla Scum player whose character name happens to be Fenrir, in which case it really doesn’t matter that Red Skeezix decided to use the same name. But given the number of special roles we’ve seen already, I don’t find it implausible that there is a Scum Fenrir character who is NOT substantially different from the role described by Red Skeezix. I wouldn’t bet the farm on it, but I see no reason to assume that there couldn’t be a Scum character with the power to perform an extra night kill.

I don’t know what Chronos’s motives are for dismissing Ninja’s concerns if he is Scum, though – it may be that she was on the right track and he wants to mislead the Town, or it may be that he knows perfectly well there’s no special Fenrir role and is either trying to act pro-Town by preventing the others from wasting time or that he’d just find it annoying to read and play along with a bunch of debate about a topic he knows is fruitless.