Having the Masons claim would be a very bad idea for the Town. A successful recruitment is as good as two night kills to the scum(because they increase their numbers and decrease the town’s numbers). Since Masons have a 50% chance of resisting recruitment, trying to recruit a Mason is as good as a night-kill to the Mafia in terms of the numbers. The inherent advantages to the scum of a recruitment over a night-kill make a recruitment attempt the obvious thing to do. Plus, if the scum can out all of the unrecruitable roles then they don’t have to ever stop recruiting until the Boss is dead.
Ah, I’ve re-established my connection with HazelNutCoffee. Excellent. Kill everyone on your list HNC!
Drain Bead’s posts have been very well stated. I’m starting to think that maybe there is a secret role or something that makes Drain Bead even afraid to tell us that person is Town. Not sure why though. But the tone of her posts really sound townie to me. So much for my Drain Bead was recruited theory.
And I think everyone needs to really think through the mason problem more carefully. People are throwing out hypotheticals without fully considering what happens next. For example, the notion that a recruited mason could mess with the town by not confirming a real mason’s claim. Yes, that would be bad in the short term, but immediately following the lynching of the pro-town mason, Town would know that ALL claimed masons are scum. Not a bad trade and only potentially damaging if the town was facing Lynch or Lose at the time. In general, masons claim before lynch or lose; so I don’t think that would be a problem.
Hmm… well, let’s think about that. The scum know who they are, and would expect the police chief to report anyone else as town. So what could she announce that would even be news to the mafia?
If there was some kind of super-secret town infiltrator who the Mafia thought was on their side, part of their councils, but was really pro-Town, then I can understand DB wanting to stay quiet - she wouldn’t want to blow that person’s cover to the mafia by announcing that they’re town, (unless there’s a reasonable pretext on which the scum could assume that she’s wrong,) or Judas-kiss that person as an enemy of the town when they’re really pro-town and important to keep alive.
But I can’t really believe that fluiddruid sticking such a mystery role into the game without letting anybody else know. In about any other situation, it’d be possible to tell the mafia what they expect to hear, give the town some kind of useful info, and keep from drawing suspicion onto herself. Unless I’m missing something?
Since I follow the spoiler board, I know what’s going on behind the scenes, and Drain Bead does have a good reason for not revealing the investigation results. Now that being said, I can add a little bit of nudge for those who are interested which I’ll put in the spoiler box. I will provide three points of information, each more spoilerish than the previous. None of these give anything away, but if one thinks about the three things one might be able to figure out what’s going on.
Basically two people have played very smartly, Drain Bead and the one she investigated.
Certain positions can have powers that are more useful to the mob than to the town. You don’t want these people switching sides.
The one she investigated took a gamble earlier (well, actually two gambles), and Drain Bead is gambling that this player had a good reason for why the second gamble was made and she’s come to the same conclusions as the investigated player did to the wisdom of the play. There are multiple ways to interpret the results of investigations, since things aren’t always what they seem. She’s following the same logic as the person she investigated. And she’s right to do so.
P.S.: If anyone wants to know the full story of this (or want to confirm your suspicions after reading the spoiler), PM me and I’ll fill you in on why Drain Bead’s doing what she is.
I don’t think spoilers are appropriate here.
- If people want to be spoiled they should go to the spoiler board
- Nothing prevents people in the game from reading these posts.
- Spoilers, uh, spoil the fun.
Agreed.
I’m thinking it’s less complicated than that. I bet she just hit upon some role she feels is important, and she does not want to draw any attention at all to that person by outing them as Town.
ETA: On second thought, I’m not sure that makes any sense given the current claims…bah, I’m an idiot.
I’m surprised that USCDiver is going after NAF. I suppose I shouldn’t be that surprised since USCDiver and I tend to come to different conclusions as a matter of principle; but in this very thread which I think USCDiver read before getting put into the game, we (okay, I) stated emphatically that the Boss needs to recruit, recruit, recruit! Starting as a singleton, recruitment is a necessity to ‘even up’ the game. Nightkills aren’t enough.
So USCDiver comes up with a rather convoluted reason for NAF to be the Boss. I don’t get it. Isn’t it simpler for NAF to have said that the Boss recruited because doing otherwise is simply the wrong choice… because it is.
“Extra knowledge” only works if that extra knowledge isn’t something that we can simply deduce. In fact, I draw the opposite conclusion. NAF and Hawkeyeop are not the Boss. The Boss, having killed instead of recruiting, would not go out of his way to convince the town that the Boss didn’t kill. He would say nothing. If anything I would re-read Day Two and see how people reacted to NAF saying that not recruiting night one is absolute stupidity and see if anyone took umbrage from that. NAF was unknowingly insulting the Boss there. If I were in the game I’d be re-reading with that in mind.
Arrrgh. And now the wagon on Darth Sensitive is stalling. Boo!
At the very least USCDiver could have thrown me a bone and gone after Hawkeyeop instead of NAF since he’s on the HazelNutCoffee kill list too.
fluiddruid, perhaps you can edit out the spoiler post? Even the un-boxed text is a spoiler. Unfortunately, this means anyone who has read this thread is now spoiled and can’t sub-in (At least until a certain someone dies).
I agree that it would have been extremely foolish for the Boss to kill on Night One and then post vehemently about it (as NAF did) the next day, either pro or con. I would look for those who: made no comment about the chance of night kill vs. recruit; or, even more likely, those who posted a wishy-washy “either way” kind of safe statement.
(Then again, it was extremely foolish to kill instead of recruit in the first place, so…)
Menocchio made a suspicious mistake in his last post. He claimed that the scum could not afford to attempt to recruit the Capo for fear it would be blocked. But the scum don’t lose the Capo recruitment attempt if the attempt is Doc-blocked. Did Menocchio forget this?
NAF FOS’s USCDiver because I dropped? Cor, just for this audience’s sake, I’d just like everyone to know that I dropped pretty much soley because of the monster creating and modding the offboard game has turned into.
I pretty much thought that. I don’t see why anyone would suspect someone because of a substitution. Historically, we haven’t done so. If anything, people had been assuming people are more likely to drop because they got a vanilla role; which is obviously wrong from our population set and past history. But to say that Diomedes dropped because he’s the Boss is quite a leap and not very fair to Diomedes. I do understand NAF, though, I think. In Sekham there was much discussion about subs-and NAF had a weird (scummy) “I’m not going to lynch subs” policy. In that game two scum subbed out early. I think NAF is forgetting just how many subs there were in that game. Sure two were scum, but a bunch of others (much more than two) were Town.
Oh and, go HazelNutCoffee!
I’ve been thinking about false claims lately. I believed the wagon on Pleonast on Day Two was unwarranted, so I’m inclined to believe his claim for now, but the existence of the Priest role; and furthermore, the undetermined number of Priests, makes for easier false claiming by scum. Town will avoid lynching Priests, furthermore, the Vig will avoid killing a claimed Priest. It is the perfect false claim for scum, especially the Boss.
This fact has me very worried about Priest claims; but on the plus side it has the potential of balancing the game for scum.
I will be quite amused if Pleonast turns out to be the Boss.
So on the other non-spoiled board for the off-board game I posted a statement this morning about how I learned the importance of traps in The Conspiracy.
Now NAF writes:
First HazelNutCoffee, then NAF. Who should I channel next?
I feel like I’m just talking to myself here.
I’m shocked at the response that the Town is giving to Darth Sensitive’s “defense.” I agree that demanding a defense from people is bizarre, but what Darth Sensitive has given is simply, “Town doesn’t know what the hell it is doing so because Town has been wrong before, Town is wrong again.” I wouldn’t lynch him for the defense, but I wouldn’t exonerate him for it by any means. That “defense” would be valid for anyone under suspicion. While it might explain his Night post, I’m still wanting the HazelNutCoffee list dead dead dead. Maybe Millit too.
Plus there is this:
(underlining mine)
Darth Sensitive voted for dotchan.
Lynch him!
Wow. The more Millit posts the more I think everyone will kill her. What’s with the “Don’t forget NAF and I might both be Town, so when we kill NAF and he turns up Town don’t blame me.” post. It looks so scummy and if I were in the game I’d be suspicious as hell about it. But I think I’ve reached a more Zen-like approach to this game from the outside. Millit’s post is screaming Town to me from out here. But I know that I’d be all over her if I were in the game. Quite strange.
It’s similar to CapnPitt. When he first stated the I think one of Pleonast and Menocchio is scum statement, I jumped on it. It wasn’t until ShadowFacts questioned me about that conclusion that I realized that I was being silly. With Millit the Frail I did the same thing. My first reaction was, scum! But then I thought about it, and real scum wouldn’t state what she just said.
Yeah, your pal Hazel caught it:
“I just have one question for you, Darth. If you were so convinced the dotchan lynch was a bad one, why did you vote for her?”
Great question, and if more people catch on to it, he’s toast.
PS. Sorry I haven’t been posting much. I’m trying to keep up, but I’m in tech week for show, so time is tight. I think I’m doing better than some people in the game, though
Wow. What a train wreck!
What exactly is the reason for voting NAF? Everyone is voting for NAF because he seems “scummy” but no one is actually stating what that entails. Town really sucks at this. I have no idea whether Darth Sensitive is scum or not, but I’m fairly sure that NAF is Town. At the very least NAF is not the Boss. MHaye’s analysis from the Day before pretty much nailed that one. Stupid stupid lynch choice. And yet, MHaye votes for NAF.
And Millit! Actually accusing NAF of fishing for information as he asks the Town to explicitly state their suspicions. WTF? That’s what Town should be doing… every day… every hour! NAF shouldn’t even need to ask Town to do this, it should be a given. To call such discussion fishing is so far off the mark of what Town needs to be doing, I’m flabbergasted.
Town needs to state suspicions all the time. They will need this information later to see shifts in loyalty and reasoning. Gaaah!
It’s Blaster Master
- He’s been atypically quiet Today.
- He points out that NAF had the same point as he regarding Night One, all while NAF is about to die… with Blaster Master’s vote on NAF.
I view Blaster Master’s actions as very scummy. He was so helpful to Town early in the game, and now he’s so not. He’s aligned himself as thinking the same thing as NAF. That looks like scum knowing Town is about to become confirmed town to me. - He’s voting for NAF, and I don’t know why. He’s the first voter so there’s some early Day stuff in there, but it seems to me that the only possible reason Blaster Master could be voting for NAF is that he thinks NAF was recruited, which is a bad reason at this time.
I’m suspicious of both Blaster Master and MHaye for that reason.
Well at least NAF can keep me company here in this thread. At least until he spoils himself.
I think more watchers should watch unspoiled. I think it is more instructive that way.
Also, I’m about to go crazy from all the unsubstantiated voting going on here and in the off-board game. I think we as a player base need to reevaluate the votes with no reason conundrum. Fake reasons like “He’s number 2 on my list” are not helpful. Even proxy reasons like “For reasons I outlined before” are not helpful. It takes some work (or maybe a simple cut and paste) to put the reasons for a vote right there NEXT TO the G.D. vote, but doing so is so much more helpful to Town, I don’t see why we don’t enforce that more often.
I’m still in the dark as to why NAF is up for lynching. Was it his stupid list? The list that is really really pro-town? WTF? Everyone should be stating who they think were recruited each night.
I think I’ll channel zuma next: Stupid Town!
The self-vote is very troublesome. I don’t see why NAF did it. I’m sure he will explain his reasons shortly to us. If he simply unvoted and left himself with no vote, the vote tally would be 9-8. Possible to get a DS lynch. but at 10-8, no chance at all.
Looking at the vote count, I think NAF’s biggest mistake was shotgun voting (which I would argue belies his Towniness, but Town doesn’t seem to want to concern itself about these things).
NAF voted for: Blaster Master, Millit, bufftabby, and Darth Sensitive Today.
All but Darth Sensitive are voting for NAF. NAF pretty much begged Millit and bufftabby to vote for him. Blaster Master I think could have ‘gotten over’ NAF’s vote, but Millit and bufftabby look like they are prime candidates for “Well you’re voting for me and I’m not scum, so you must be scum” reasonings. Not good for NAF.