Link here. Bookmaker Bovada has assigned actual odds that you can bet on for who will rule Westeros at the end of the series. The odds contain some mild spoilers (at least two characters not yet in the show). Here are the odds:
Daenerys Targaryen — 5/2
Jon Snow — 3/1
Aegon VI Targaryen — 6/1
Tyrion Lannister — 15/2
Petyr Baelish — 15/2
Margaery Tyrell — 14/1
Euron Greyjoy — 20/1
Varys — 20/1
Stannis Baratheon — 25/1
Sansa Stark — 25/1
Night’s King — 25/1
Cersei Lannister — 40/1
Trystane Martell — 40/1
Bran or Rickon Stark — 50/1
Arya Stark — 50/1
Ramsay Bolton — 50/1
Hodor — 500/1
My thoughts: Varys and Stannis are too high. The Night’s King is probably a bit low and a good bet, IMO. Cersei should be much lower, even as she’s near the bottom. Bran should be very low, but Rickon should be higher.
I’d split my money evenly between Dany, Jon (I believe he’s not truly dead, or will be resurrected, but this is not a spoiler and just a prediction), and the Night’s King, with maybe a bit extra on Petyr Baelish.
I love that Hodor is on the list but not Reek/Theon. I also think the Night’s King should be higher on the list, and probably Varys too. Aegon must be a guess from the books, because nothing I’ve seen on the show even hints at him.
My bet? There will be no Seven Kingdom’s by the end of the series. Best case scenario, the realm will fracture. Worse case, the Others will kill so many people there won’t be enough survivors for one kingdom, let alone seven.
I’m starting to like my own theory that nobody wins and we’re watching the “Last Days of Westeros”
-a novelization of the cautionary histories written by Tyrion Lannister, the last Lion.
[ul]
[li]Bran or Rickon has risen from 40/1 to 28/1[/li][li]Sansa has risen from 25/1 to 22/1[/li]
[li]Stannis has dropped from 25/1 to 33/1[/li][li]Both Cersei and Trystane Martell have dropped from 40/1 to 50/1[/li][li]Ramsay Bolton has dropped from 50/1 to 60/1[/li][li]Euron Greyjoy has dropped from 20/1 to 22/1[/li][li]Arya has dropped from 50/1 to 55/1[/li][/ul]
There’s also a book for who will “perish” next, with a note that “if revived in any way will not count towards wager.” That seems like a sucker’s bet no matter who you pick.
I’ve only watched the first season of the show so far, and I’m not even sure I’ll continue on, but I’d bet Tyrion Lannister.
Can’t say why, but something in my subconscious mind says so.
I just wanted to mention that you’ve been using the term “risen” to describe odds going from something like 20-1 to 15-1, and “dropped” to describe the opposite.
Generally odds are described in the exact opposite terms. Someone with odds going from 50-1 to 30-1 is having their odds drop, not rise.
Aegon seems WAAAAY too high for me; but then again I’m 99% convinced he’s a pretender. Can’t see him playing such a big role as the eventual winner when he’s been introduced this late.
I personally think a bet on anyone other than Dany, Jon or Tyrion is silly, unless you want to take an off-the-board shot like Bronn or something.
They do? I’ve always seen people say their odds are rising, since the chance of them “winning” has increased (i.e., if 50-1 is 2% and 30-1 is 3.33%, their odds are rising).
Going from the book, I don’t think Aegon is that far off. But since the bets are on the HBO version and this is one of the places the show has diverged (so far), you’re probably right that the odds are too high for him.
Even if Dany were to make it, which she might, I think this story is meant to be a tragedy and she’ll probably die shortly before it’s over. What happens if nobody is on the throne at the end and the realm is simply descending into chaos and war again?
Maybe it’s a gambling lingo vs popular lingo thing. “Odds rising” to me means something getting more likely, and just Googling that phrase indicates that is how it is used outside a gambling context.
Well, first of all, the Dragon has three heads, so where’s the Trifecta option?
My actual guess is that when Daenerys says she’s going to “break the wheel,” what she means is that she will put the government into the hands of the people. Something like Democracy, but not sure how it would look if she’s making it up.
Jaime, Tyrion, Varys would all go along with that. Margaery? Maybe. Mace will do as he’s told. Doran would go for it. Bran and the Children would go for it. I could see Bran opening up a diplomatic channel with the Night King and Westerosi government.
The Bolton’s have to go, of course. Maybe Sansa would be the last one left so maybe she votes for them. (And I could see her saying “No, I am Queen of the North now.”)
OK, sorry, I’ll stop. I could go on for hours though. :o
I think you’re right. And outside a gambling context, it makes sense. There, something on the rise is a good thing. But to a gambler, odds going from 10-1 to 5-1 is bad because it means less bang for your buck.
And I found some references to “odds rising” meaning getting more likely. None were from betting sources, but it’s obvious the world at large sees the term that way. Ignorance fought.
As an aside, I have known for years that news sources don’t understand odds. Every year when covering the Kentucky Derby, the newspapers treat the morning line, which is just an educated guess at the odds, as if it represented actual betting.
— 500/1